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Latest Advances in Remote Sensing-Based Environmental Dynamic Models

A special issue of Remote Sensing (ISSN 2072-4292).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 July 2023) | Viewed by 9806

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Division for Earth Observation and Geinformatics, National Institute for Space Research—INPE, Av. dos Astronautas, 1758-SERE I-Room 6, 12220-140 Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Interests: cellular automata modeling; machine and deep learning for environmental sciences; GEOBIA; high spatial resolution sensors; urban remote sensing; urban modeling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

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Guest Editor
Principal Flood Engineer, WMA Water Level 2, 160 Clarence Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia
Interests: surface runoff simulation; cellular automata models; stormwater management

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Guest Editor
Agriculture Forestry and Ecosystem Services Research Group, International Institute for Applied System Analysis—IIASA, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Interests: land use and forest modeling; dynamic optimization in models for economic growth and R&D investments; dynamic systems; wildfire modeling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

With the rise of GIScience, representations of geographical phenomena in terms of spatial and temporal dimensions have emerged as a means to overcome static representations unable to deal with real-word dynamic processes. Dynamic models of environmental phenomena are those in which inputs and outputs vary throughout time, and current states depend on previous states, effectively coupling with dynamic equilibrium. These models, also called spatiotemporal models or spatially explicit dynamic models, have evolved as a new paradigm targeted to data-intensive science and found applications in the most diverse fields of environmental sciences, ranging from deforestation and forest regrowth, wildfire propagation, urban sprawl, land cover and land use change (LUCC) to surface run-off and flooding, mass movements, flora and fauna species migration, competition between socioeconomic groups for urban space, and disease outbreak, to highlight the most relevant ones. Environmental dynamic models, driven by remotely sensed data, is a growing field of research and offers promising and innovative possibilities for not only understanding the drivers of past environmental changes but also providing plausible future scenarios of such changes in manifold time horizons.

The greater availability and variety of Earth observation data deriving from multilevel sensors platforms provide plentiful input sources for environmental dynamic models, which are then faced with the challenge to handle this massive amount of data (Big Data), generally relying on artificial intelligence methods. The latest generation of such models are able to cope with irregular cell shapes, continuous states, non-stationary neighborhoods, simultaneous asynchronous processes, multiple agents per cell, region-based or agent-based customized transition functions, endogenous and exogenous variables, coupling of models (e.g., an erosion model coupled to a LUCC model) and, more recently, 3D representations, like the simulation of convective processes in urban canyons in which the building volumes are extracted by LiDAR data processing. This Special Issue is committed to reporting recent advances in environmental dynamic models and welcomes theoretical and application papers. We truly expect that the contributions to this Special Issue may be a benchmark for those engaged with the continuous advancement of the environmental dynamic modeling field. Articles may include the following topics, but are not limited to:

  • process-oriented × agent-based models
  • LUCC modeling
  • simulation of deforestation
  • fire propagation modeling
  • hydrological and mass movements modeling
  • simulation of species migration
  • socioeconomic models of space competition
  • models for diseases outbreak
  • dynamic coastal and aquatic processes
  • coupling of online and offline models
  • scenario elaboration and forecast generation
  • cellular automata × cell space models
  • advances in the computational representation of space and time
  • change allocation functions
  • multiscale modeling platforms
  • new parameterization methods for modeling
  • spatial statistical validation
  • multiresolution goodness of fit approaches

Prof. Dr. Cláudia Maria de Almeida
Dr. Behzad Jamali
Dr. Andrey Krasovskiy
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Remote Sensing is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2700 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • cellular automata
  • agent-based models
  • space and time representations
  • cell space models
  • change allocation functions
  • model coupling
  • multiscale models

Published Papers (4 papers)

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23 pages, 8144 KiB  
Article
Quantification of Loss of Access to Critical Services during Floods in Greater Jakarta: Integrating Social, Geospatial, and Network Perspectives
by Pavel Kiparisov, Viktor Lagutov and Georg Pflug
Remote Sens. 2023, 15(21), 5250; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/rs15215250 - 05 Nov 2023
Viewed by 1139
Abstract
This work presents a framework for assessing the socio-physical disruption of critical infrastructure accessibility using the example of Greater Jakarta, a metropolitan area of the Indonesian city. The first pillar of the framework is damage quantification based on the real flood event in [...] Read more.
This work presents a framework for assessing the socio-physical disruption of critical infrastructure accessibility using the example of Greater Jakarta, a metropolitan area of the Indonesian city. The first pillar of the framework is damage quantification based on the real flood event in 2020. Within this pillar, the system network statistics before and shortly after the flood were compared. The results showed that the flood impeded access to facilities, distorted transport connectivity, and increased system vulnerability. Poverty was found to be negatively associated with surface elevation, suggesting that urbanization of flood-prone areas has occurred. The second pillar was a flood simulation. Our simulations identified the locations and clusters that are more vulnerable to the loss of access during floods, and the entire framework can be applied to other cities and urban areas globally and adapted to account for different disasters that physically affect urban infrastructure. This work demonstrated the feasibility of damage quantification and vulnerability assessment relying solely on open and publicly available data and tools. The framework, which uses satellite data on the occurrence of floods made available by space agencies in a timely manner, will allow for rapid ex post investigation of the socio-physical consequences of disasters. It will save resources, as the analysis can be performed by a single person, as opposed to expensive and time-consuming ground surveys. Ex ante vulnerability assessment based on simulations will help communities, urban planners, and emergency personnel better prepare for future shocks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Latest Advances in Remote Sensing-Based Environmental Dynamic Models)
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22 pages, 7579 KiB  
Article
Modeling Historical and Future Forest Fires in South Korea: The FLAM Optimization Approach
by Hyun-Woo Jo, Andrey Krasovskiy, Mina Hong, Shelby Corning, Whijin Kim, Florian Kraxner and Woo-Kyun Lee
Remote Sens. 2023, 15(5), 1446; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/rs15051446 - 04 Mar 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2964
Abstract
Climate change-induced heat waves increase the global risk of forest fires, intensifying biomass burning and accelerating climate change in a vicious cycle. This presents a challenge to the response system in heavily forested South Korea, increasing the risk of more frequent and large-scale [...] Read more.
Climate change-induced heat waves increase the global risk of forest fires, intensifying biomass burning and accelerating climate change in a vicious cycle. This presents a challenge to the response system in heavily forested South Korea, increasing the risk of more frequent and large-scale fire outbreaks. This study aims to optimize IIASA’s wildFire cLimate impacts and Adaptation Model (FLAM)—a processed-based model integrating biophysical and human impacts—to South Korea for projecting the pattern and scale of future forest fires. The developments performed in this study include: (1) the optimization of probability algorithms in FLAM based on the national GIS data downscaled to 1 km2 with additional factors introduced for national specific modeling; (2) the improvement of soil moisture computation by adjusting the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) to represent vegetation feedbacks by fitting soil moisture to daily remote sensing data; and (3) projection of future forest fire frequency and burned area. Our results show that optimization has considerably improved the modeling of seasonal patterns of forest fire frequency. Pearson’s correlation coefficient between monthly predictions and observations from national statistics over 2016–2022 was improved from 0.171 in the non-optimized to 0.893 in the optimized FLAM. These findings imply that FLAM’s main algorithms for interpreting biophysical and human impacts on forest fire at a global scale are only applicable to South Korea after the optimization of all modules, and climate change is the main driver of the recent increases in forest fires. Projections for forest fire were produced for four periods until 2100 based on the forest management plan, which included three management scenarios (current, ideal, and overprotection). Ideal management led to a reduction of 60–70% of both fire frequency and burned area compared to the overprotection scenario. This study should be followed by research for developing adaptation strategies corresponding to the projected risks of future forest fires. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Latest Advances in Remote Sensing-Based Environmental Dynamic Models)
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29 pages, 7367 KiB  
Article
Simulation and Prediction of Urban Land Use Change Considering Multiple Classes and Transitions by Means of Random Change Allocation Algorithms
by Rômulo Marques-Carvalho, Cláudia Maria de Almeida, Elton Vicente Escobar-Silva, Rayanna Barroso de Oliveira Alves and Camila Souza dos Anjos Lacerda
Remote Sens. 2023, 15(1), 90; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/rs15010090 - 24 Dec 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1834
Abstract
The great majority of the world population resides nowadays in urban areas. Understanding their physical and social structure, and especially their urban land use pattern dynamics throughout time, becomes crucial for successful, effective management of such areas. This study is committed to simulate [...] Read more.
The great majority of the world population resides nowadays in urban areas. Understanding their physical and social structure, and especially their urban land use pattern dynamics throughout time, becomes crucial for successful, effective management of such areas. This study is committed to simulate and predict urban land use change in a pilot city belonging to the São Paulo Metropolitan Region, southeast of Brazil, by means of a cellular automata model associated with the Markov chain. This model is driven by data derived from orbital and airborne remotely sensed images and is parameterized by the Bayesian weights of evidence method. Several layers related to infrastructure and biophysical aspects of the pilot city, São Caetano do Sul, were used as evidence in the simulation process. Alternative non-stationary scenarios were generated for the short-run, and the results obtained from past simulations were statistically validated using a multiresolution “goodness-of-fit” metric relying on fuzzy logic. The best simulations reached fuzzy similarity indices around 0.25–0.58 for small neighborhood windows when an exponential decay approach was employed for the analysis, and approximately 0.65–0.95 when a constant decay and larger windows were considered. The adopted Bayesian inference method proved to be a good parameterization approach for simulating processes of urban land use change involving multiple classes and transitions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Latest Advances in Remote Sensing-Based Environmental Dynamic Models)
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13 pages, 3282 KiB  
Technical Note
Regional Variability and Driving Forces behind Forest Fires in Sweden
by Reinis Cimdins, Andrey Krasovskiy and Florian Kraxner
Remote Sens. 2022, 14(22), 5826; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/rs14225826 - 17 Nov 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2500
Abstract
Extreme forest fires have been a historic concern in the forests of Canada, the Russian Federation, and the USA, and are now an increasing threat in boreal Europe, where recent fire events in 2014 and 2018 drew attention to Sweden. Our study objective [...] Read more.
Extreme forest fires have been a historic concern in the forests of Canada, the Russian Federation, and the USA, and are now an increasing threat in boreal Europe, where recent fire events in 2014 and 2018 drew attention to Sweden. Our study objective was to understand the vulnerability of Swedish forests to fire by spatially analyzing historical burned areas, and to link fire events with weather, landscape, and fire-related socioeconomic factors. We developed an extensive database of 1 × 1 km2 homogenous grids, where monthly burned areas were derived from the MODIS FireCCI51 dataset. The database consists of various socio-economic, topographic-, forest-, and weather-related remote sensing products. To include new factors in the IIASA’s FLAM model, we developed a random forest model to assess the spatial probabilities of burned areas. Due to Sweden’s geographical diversity, fire dynamics vary between six biogeographical zones. Therefore, the model was applied to each zone separately. As an outcome, we obtained probabilities of burned areas in the forests across Sweden and observed burned areas were well captured by the model. The result accuracy differs with respect to zone; the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.875 and 0.94 for zones with few fires, but above 0.95 for zones with a higher number of fire events. Feature importance analysis and their variability across Sweden provide valuable information to understand the reasons behind forest fires. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code, population and road densities, slope and aspect, and forest stand volume were found to be among the key fire-related factors in Sweden. Our modeling approach can be extended to hotspot mapping in other boreal regions and thus is highly policy-relevant. Visualization of our results is available in the Google Earth Engine Application. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Latest Advances in Remote Sensing-Based Environmental Dynamic Models)
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