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Multisensor Observations of Pre-earthquake Signals and Their Forecasting Value

A special issue of Sensors (ISSN 1424-8220). This special issue belongs to the section "Physical Sensors".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2021) | Viewed by 5797

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Interests: Seismicity processes; Tsunamis

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Co-Guest Editor
National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (Italy), Via di Vigna Murata, 605, 00143 Roma, RM, Italy
Interests: harmonic analysis; fractals; exploration geophysics; space weather; geomagnetism; seismology; ionosphere; remote sensing; satellite data analysis; geodynamics; tsunami
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Co-Guest Editor
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IEPT RAS) 84/32 Profsoyuznaya Street, 117997 Moscow, Russia
Interests: Earthquake prediction; Hypothesis testing

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Co-Guest Editor
Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations (CEESMO) Schmid College of Science and Technology Chapman University, One University Drive, Orange, CA 92866, USA
Interests: Pre-earthquake processes; Satellites
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

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Co-Guest Editor
Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117997 Moscow, Russia
Interests: physics of the ionosphere; atmospheric electricity; natural hazards; lithosphere-atmosphere–ionosphere coupling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear colleagues,

A reliable characterization of possible pre-earthquake processes requires their repeatable multisensor observation, rigorous formalization, and testing. This Special Issue expands cross-disciplinary discussions aiming at sound physical description, formalization, statistical validation, and verification of observed phenomena, which are proposed as precursors to strong earthquakes. The topic of this issue includes a variety of physical observations, ranging from ground-related changes in seismicity and deformation patterns (e.g., CGPS, SAR) to pre-earthquake changes induced in the atmosphere and ionosphere. More recent (mainly non-seismological) observations from space and ground have provided new evidence that a large earthquake is the result of a chain process involving a possible coupling between the lithosphere, where the tectonic movements produce seismic events, and the above atmospheric and ionospheric environment. This new multisensor approach may give new insights into tectonic processes and their interactions with the rest of the Earth system and possibly enhance capability in forecasting earthquakes. The latter include observations of geochemical, electromagnetic, electrochemical, and thermodynamic processes that can be related to stress variations in the lithosphere during the preparation phase of a large earthquake, along with their physical description and statistical verification. Methodological approaches, algorithms, and prospects toward earthquake forecasting from various pre-earthquake signals also fall within the scope of the Special Issue.

Dr. Gerassimos Papadopoulos
Prof. Dr. Angelo De Santis
Dr. Vladimir Kossobokov
Dr. Dimitar Ouzounov
Dr. Sergey Pulinets
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • Ground-based observations
  • Space observations
  • Earthquake preparation phase
  • Earthquake precursors
  • Earthquake forecasting and prediction

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

27 pages, 1598 KiB  
Article
Return Period Evaluation of the Largest Possible Earthquake Magnitudes in Mainland China Based on Extreme Value Theory
by Ning Ma, Yanbing Bai and Shengwang Meng
Sensors 2021, 21(10), 3519; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/s21103519 - 18 May 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2184
Abstract
The largest possible earthquake magnitude based on geographical characteristics for a selected return period is required in earthquake engineering, disaster management, and insurance. Ground-based observations combined with statistical analyses may offer new insights into earthquake prediction. In this study, to investigate the seismic [...] Read more.
The largest possible earthquake magnitude based on geographical characteristics for a selected return period is required in earthquake engineering, disaster management, and insurance. Ground-based observations combined with statistical analyses may offer new insights into earthquake prediction. In this study, to investigate the seismic characteristics of different geographical regions in detail, clustering was used to provide earthquake zoning for Mainland China based on the geographical features of earthquake events. In combination with geospatial methods, statistical extreme value models and the right-truncated Gutenberg–Richter model were used to analyze the earthquake magnitudes of Mainland China under both clustering and non-clustering. The results demonstrate that the right-truncated peaks-over-threshold model is the relatively optimal statistical model compared with classical extreme value theory models, the estimated return level of which is very close to that of the geographical-based right-truncated Gutenberg–Richter model. Such statistical models can provide a quantitative analysis of the probability of future earthquake risks in China, and geographical information can be integrated to locate the earthquake risk accurately. Full article
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27 pages, 9278 KiB  
Article
Short-Term Foreshocks as Key Information for Mainshock Timing and Rupture: The Mw6.8 25 October 2018 Zakynthos Earthquake, Hellenic Subduction Zone
by Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos, Apostolos Agalos, George Minadakis, Ioanna Triantafyllou and Pavlos Krassakis
Sensors 2020, 20(19), 5681; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/s20195681 - 05 Oct 2020
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3095
Abstract
Significant seismicity anomalies preceded the 25 October 2018 mainshock (Mw = 6.8), NW Hellenic Arc: a transient intermediate-term (~2 yrs) swarm and a short-term (last 6 months) cluster with typical time-size-space foreshock patterns: activity increase, b-value drop, foreshocks move towards mainshock epicenter. [...] Read more.
Significant seismicity anomalies preceded the 25 October 2018 mainshock (Mw = 6.8), NW Hellenic Arc: a transient intermediate-term (~2 yrs) swarm and a short-term (last 6 months) cluster with typical time-size-space foreshock patterns: activity increase, b-value drop, foreshocks move towards mainshock epicenter. The anomalies were identified with both a standard earthquake catalogue and a catalogue relocated with the Non-Linear Location (NLLoc) algorithm. Teleseismic P-waveforms inversion showed oblique-slip rupture with strike 10°, dip 24°, length ~70 km, faulting depth ~24 km, velocity 3.2 km/s, duration 18 s, slip 1.8 m within the asperity, seismic moment 2.0 × 1026 dyne*cm. The two largest imminent foreshocks (Mw = 4.1, Mw = 4.8) occurred very close to the mainshock hypocenter. The asperity bounded up-dip by the foreshocks area and at the north by the foreshocks/swarm area. The accelerated foreshocks very likely promoted slip accumulation contributing to unlocking the asperity and breaking with the mainshock. The rupture initially propagated northwards, but after 6 s stopped at the north bound and turned southwards. Most early aftershocks concentrated in the foreshocks/swarm area. This distribution was controlled not only by stress transfer from the mainshock but also by pre-existing stress. In the frame of a program for regular monitoring and near real-time identification of seismicity anomalies, foreshock patterns would be detectable at least three months prior the mainshock, thus demonstrating the significant predictive value of foreshocks. Full article
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