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Foresight Research: Trends and Grand Challenges

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A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Sustainable Management".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 November 2021) | Viewed by 15455

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Anna Kononiuk

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Guest Editor

Faculty of Engineering Management, Bialystok University of Technology, Bialystok, Poland
Interests: foresight; strategic foresight; foresight in enterprises; foresight maturity; scenario method; triangulation; wild cards; Industry 4.0

Prof. Dr. Ozcan Saritas

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Moscow, Russia
Interests: innovation; foresight; futures; scenarios; systems thinking

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The uncertainty and complexity of the contemporary world, the widespread COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the rapid progress of Industry 4.0 make it difficult to anticipate regional and business growth. The constantly changing market requirements enforce the reformulation of the existing business models, changes in production technologies and product cycles, as well as new approaches to designing business governance forms and the sustainability of different governance models at the company, regional, and city levels.

Hence, foresight research is gaining importance, and is understood as a future-oriented managerial competence, a company’s capability or as a systematic, participatory process focused on gathering knowledge about future-oriented vision-building and its impact on today’s decisions and mobilizing joint actions, faced with the unpredictability of the environment.

This Special Issue covers a diverse range of substantive theoretical and methodological developments in the field of foresight studies. The Issue is addressed to original research related to the recent developments of Industry 4.0 and its positive and negative futures, strategic foresight at the company, regional, and city levels, as well as strategic planning and its links with sustainability. The problems of integrating foresight with innovation process management, technology assessment, and organizational capabilities evaluation are also within the scope of interest.

We hope that the Special Issue on “Foresight Research: Trends and Grand Challenges” will provide an opportunity for scholars and practitioners to reflect and enhance the understanding of the research field, its links with other scientific fields, as well as its correspondence with sustainability.

Dr. Anna Kononiuk
Prof. Dr. Ozcan Saritas
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

strategic foresight
Industry 4.0
innovation process management
regional foresight
foresight for the city

Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

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16 pages, 5151 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Shaping Digital Ecosystems for Sustainable Production: Assessing the Policy Impact of the 2030 Vision for Industrie 4.0

by Björn Sautter

Sustainability 2021, 13(22), 12596; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/su132212596 - 15 Nov 2021

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2555

Abstract

How can we effectively shape digital ecosystems for sustainable production in line with the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations? The German Plattform Industrie 4.0 has developed a vision for 2030 entitled “Shaping Digital Ecosystems Globally” with sustainability as one of three key pillars. Based on this vision, three development paths towards a digital, networked and sustainable manufacturing industry of the future were identified and further concretized with corresponding scenarios and business use cases. This article assesses this participatory approach of jointly thinking and shaping futures, with a particular focus on outcomes and policy impacts. A specific focus is placed on the involved and addressed public and private stakeholders, industry and policy sectors, and governance levels. The study shows that the 2030 Vision for Industrie 4.0 is a good example of how broad policy impacts can be achieved by taking a multi-actor, multi-sector and multi-level approach. Based on some practical implications for designing collaborative manufacturing networks in digital ecosystems, the article concludes with a call for collective action towards the Sustainable Development Goals to be achieved by the year 2030. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Foresight Research: Trends and Grand Challenges)

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17 pages, 9241 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Support for the Development of Technological Innovations at an R&D Organisation

by Beata Poteralska

Sustainability 2021, 13(22), 12469; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/su132212469 - 11 Nov 2021

Viewed by 1662

Abstract

Effective development of technological innovations requires efficient management at the stages of their generation, realisation, and their implementation. For this aim, concepts such as foresight, technology assessment, and organisational capabilities assessment can be applied; however, so far they have been used mainly individually or sometimes combined but to a very limited extent. Moreover, they are not used comprehensively, but only selectively, e.g., at some stages of the innovation processes. The research problem undertaken in the paper concerns the effectiveness of the integration of these concepts: future research (mainly foresight), technology assessment, and organisational capabilities assessment for the needs of supporting innovation processes. The paper is aimed at presenting an original approach assuming the integration of the aforementioned triad. The proposed approach has been developed individually by the paper’s author on the basis of (1) state of the art analysis comprising both theoretical approaches and practical examples of individual and combined application of the concepts analysed, and (2) the author’s practical experience resulting from research projects conducted collectively. The research result comprises an original matrix approach where the individual concepts of the triad are applied in a way enabling their mutual complementation at all successive stages of the innovation process. The approach proposed comprises modules referring to the succeeding stages of the innovation process, namely generation, realisation and application of technological innovations. The areas of the approach application and possible directions of its further development are presented. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Foresight Research: Trends and Grand Challenges)

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20 pages, 10199 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Sustainable Printing 4.0—Insights from a Polish Survey

by Bartlomiej Gladysz, Krzysztof Krystosiak, Krzysztof Ejsmont, Aldona Kluczek and Aleksander Buczacki

Sustainability 2021, 13(19), 10916; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/su131910916 - 30 Sep 2021

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2550

Abstract

The transformation trend towards digital technology to achieve sustainability targets and meet legal regulations has been visible in many industries. The printing sector has already been increasingly boosting sustainability performance through digitalization to automate workflows of processes. The goal of this paper is to initially diagnose a sustainable performance of Printing 4.0 (Industry 4.0 in the printing sector). To achieve this goal, qualitative interviews were carried out with representatives of 11 printing companies. Results of the diagnostic study showed that advanced technologies have had a positive impact on sustainability in the analyzed printing companies due to a higher awareness of sustainability. It was observed in the surveyed sample that interviewees confirmed such an assumption. These companies that tailor their operational activities toward digitalization have more quickly noticed a positive effect on their sustainable businesses. This survey has served as a basis for more extensive research. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Foresight Research: Trends and Grand Challenges)

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16 pages, 1050 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Uncertainties and Levels of Foreknowledge in Relation to Major Features of Emerging Technologies—The Context of Foresight Research for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

by Andrzej Magruk

Sustainability 2021, 13(17), 9890; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/su13179890 - 02 Sep 2021

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2426

Abstract

One of the key roles in the development of Industry 4.0 systems is played by “emerging technologies” as new tools with promising—though with a high level of uncertainty—capabilities. The management of such systems should be based on a comprehensive—future-oriented—research approach. Such activities are enabled by the foresight methodology. The main purpose of this publication is to attempt to answer the following research question: “What levels of foreknowledge and knowledge in the context of the development of emerging technologies—in relation to their features in Industry 4.0—should be taken into account during the analysis of uncertainties in the sense of foresight research based on different anticipated options?” In detail, the examination covered the relationship of classes of research foresight methods with regard to types of future, scopes of uncertainty, cycles of knowledge and original levels of foreknowledge in the field of the development of emerging technologies in Industry 4.0. Emerging technologies combined with the research on foreknowledge and uncertainties is an interesting research area with many theoretical and practical potential implications. The study uses the results of the analysis and criticism of the literature, mental experiments, and the intuitive method as the main research methods. This provides a basis for performing conceptual modeling. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Foresight Research: Trends and Grand Challenges)

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Review

Jump to: Research

16 pages, 3242 KiB

Open AccessReview

Strategic Innovation, Foresight and the Deployment of Project Portfolio Management under Mid-Range Planning Conditions in Medium-Sized Firms

by Nick Hadjinicolaou, Mohamad Kader and Ibrahim Abdallah

Sustainability 2022, 14(1), 80; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/su14010080 - 22 Dec 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 4845

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the ability of a firm to innovate and absorb its innovative developments by borrowing concepts and models from project portfolio management (PPM). Using past research and the existing literature, it evaluates the potential to apply PPM to the medium-term strategic planning efforts of small- and medium-sized firms. The implementation of strategic innovation requires organizations to develop both a dynamic culture and flexible internal systems that yield to major external changes in their industry as well as internal resource changes. Such changes could include supply or value chain adjustments, changes in consumer behavior, re-allocation of internal resources or the responses of competitors. This paper examines the planning and implementation of project portfolio management tools in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (50–250 employees) with a mid-range (2–4 years) planning horizon that are required to innovate in a strategic context to remain competitive or to take advantage of new opportunities. It relates strategic foresight to the ability of the firm to adjust tactically, including in the utilization and development of internal tools, processes, systems and culture. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the potential for PPM methodologies and models to support decision making in a strategic context in SMEs, an area that is under-represented in the research on strategy. It also relates this foresight with strategic innovation and draws parallels between the strategic management planning process and the use of project portfolio management models. It argues that strategic innovation is closely tied with the ability not just to innovate but to absorb this innovation within the organizational processes and build organizational maturity. It also examines the potential use of project portfolio management models to aid strategic innovation. The use of PPM models in support of strategic innovation may contribute to the sustainability of SMEs as businesses and to the potential to identify new business models that enhance the sustainability of a firm’s competitive advantage, particularly in the medium-term. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Foresight Research: Trends and Grand Challenges)

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