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Water
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Influence of Climate Change on Floods
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Influence of Climate Change on Floods

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 July 2021) | Viewed by 29614

Special Issue Editor

Prof. Dr. Luis Mediero

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Civil Engineering: Hydraulics, Energy and Environment, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ETSI Caminos, Canales y Puertos, c/ Profesor Aranguren, 3, 28040, Madrid, Spain
Interests: hydrology; floods; climate change; statistical hydrology; distributed hydrological modelling; water resources; flood frequency analysis; flood forecasting

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Currently, there is general concern about how climate change will influence floods in the future. Such influence can be assessed either by studying past series observed at gauging stations or analyzing the climate projections provided under the assumptions fixed in the last IPCC report. Recently, the first evidence of the influence of climate change on floods in the last decades has been found, consisting of a shift in flood timing. In addition, climate projections suggest that flood risks will increase in the future.

This Special Issue aims to present recent advances on the assessment of the influence of climate change on floods. Specifically, manuscripts about the following topics are of interest for this Special Issue:

  • Studies from catchment scale to larger national and transnational scales;
  • Statistical analyses of hydroclimatological series either observed in the past or projected in the future, such as precipitation and streamflow, among others;
  • Influence of climate change on variables that influence flood magnitudes, such as evapotranspiration, antecedent moisture content and land uses, among others;
  • Rainfall-runoff modelling to transform climate projections into flood series;
  • Uncertainty analyses of climate projections and hydrological modelling results;
  • Assessment of the expected changes in the future in extreme precipitations and floods;
  • Assessment of the expected changes in flood risks driven by climate change.

Prof. Dr. Luis Mediero
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • floods
  • climate change
  • climate projections
  • rainfall-runoff models
  • uncertainty
  • trends
  • flood risks

Published Papers (7 papers)

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Research

19 pages, 3176 KiB  
Article
Process-Based Modeling of the High Flow of a Semi-Mountain River under Current and Future Climatic Conditions: A Case Study of the Iya River (Eastern Siberia)
by Andrey Kalugin
Water 2021, 13(8), 1042; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13081042 - 10 Apr 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 1727
Abstract
The purpose of the study was to analyze the formation conditions of catastrophic floods in the Iya River basin over the observation period, as well as a long-term forecast of the impacts of future climate change on the characteristics of the high flow [...] Read more.
The purpose of the study was to analyze the formation conditions of catastrophic floods in the Iya River basin over the observation period, as well as a long-term forecast of the impacts of future climate change on the characteristics of the high flow in the 21st century. The semi-distributed process-based Ecological Model for Applied Geophysics (ECOMAG) was applied to the Iya River basin. Successful model testing results were obtained for daily discharge, annual peak discharge, and discharges exceeding the critical water level threshold over the multiyear period of 1970–2019. Modeling of the high flow of the Iya River was carried out according to a Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.91, a percent bias (PBIAS) of −1%, and a ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) of 0.41. The preflood coefficient of water-saturated soil and the runoff coefficient of flood-forming precipitation in the Iya River basin were calculated in 1980, 1984, 2006, and 2019. Possible changes in the characteristics of high flow over summers in the 21st century were calculated using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) as the boundary conditions in the runoff generation model. Anomalies in values were estimated for the middle and end of the current century relative to the observed runoff over the period 1990–2019. According to various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-scenarios) of the future climate in the Iya River basin, there will be less change in the annual peak discharge or precipitation and more change in the hazardous flow and its duration, exceeding the critical water level threshold, at which residential buildings are flooded. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Influence of Climate Change on Floods)
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21 pages, 69677 KiB  
Article
Flood Inundation Assessment in the Low-Lying River Basin Considering Extreme Rainfall Impacts and Topographic Vulnerability
by Thanh Thu Nguyen, Makoto Nakatsugawa, Tomohito J. Yamada and Tsuyoshi Hoshino
Water 2021, 13(7), 896; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13070896 - 25 Mar 2021
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 4598
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the change in flood inundation in the Chitose River basin (CRB), a tributary of the Ishikari River, considering the extreme rainfall impacts and topographic vulnerability. The changing impacts were assessed using a large-ensemble rainfall dataset with a high [...] Read more.
This study aims to evaluate the change in flood inundation in the Chitose River basin (CRB), a tributary of the Ishikari River, considering the extreme rainfall impacts and topographic vulnerability. The changing impacts were assessed using a large-ensemble rainfall dataset with a high resolution of 5 km (d4PDF) as input data for the rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) model. Additionally, the prediction of time differences between the peak discharge in the Chitose River and peak water levels at the confluence point intersecting the Ishikari River were improved compared to the previous study. Results indicate that due to climatic changes, extreme river floods are expected to increase by 21–24% in the Ishikari River basin (IRB), while flood inundation is expected to be severe and higher in the CRB, with increases of 24.5, 46.5, and 13.8% for the inundation area, inundation volume, and peak inundation depth, respectively. Flood inundation is likely to occur in the CRB downstream area with a frequency of 90–100%. Additionally, the inundation duration is expected to increase by 5–10 h here. Moreover, the short time difference (0–10 h) is predicted to increase significantly in the CRB. This study provides useful information for policymakers to mitigate flood damage in vulnerable areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Influence of Climate Change on Floods)
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20 pages, 4267 KiB  
Article
Future Flood Hazard Assessment for the City of Pamplona (Spain) Using an Ensemble of Climate Change Projections
by Marco Lompi, Luis Mediero and Enrica Caporali
Water 2021, 13(6), 792; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13060792 - 14 Mar 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2811
Abstract
Understanding how the design hyetographs and floods will change in the future is essential for decision making in flood management plans. This study provides a methodology to quantify the expected changes in future hydraulic risks at the catchment scale in the city of [...] Read more.
Understanding how the design hyetographs and floods will change in the future is essential for decision making in flood management plans. This study provides a methodology to quantify the expected changes in future hydraulic risks at the catchment scale in the city of Pamplona. It considers climate change projections supplied by 12 climate models, 7 return periods, 2 emission scenarios (representative concentration pathway RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), and 3 time windows (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2070–2100). The Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model is used to simulate rainfall-runoff processes at the catchment scale. The results point to a decrease in design peak discharges for return periods smaller than 10 years and an increase for the 500- and 1000-year floods for both RCPs in the three time windows. The emission scenario RCP 8.5 usually provides the greatest increases in flood quantiles. The increase of design peak discharges is almost 10–30% higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. Change magnitudes for the most extreme events seem to be related to the greenhouse gas emission predictions in each RCP, as the greatest expected changes are found in 2040 for the RCP 4.5 and in 2100 for the RCP 8.5. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Influence of Climate Change on Floods)
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23 pages, 9344 KiB  
Article
Extreme Floods in Small Mediterranean Catchments: Long-Term Response to Climate Variability and Change
by Gerardo Benito, Yolanda Sanchez-Moya, Alicia Medialdea, Mariano Barriendos, Mikel Calle, Mayte Rico, Alfonso Sopeña and Maria J. Machado
Water 2020, 12(4), 1008; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w12041008 - 01 Apr 2020
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4712
Abstract
Climate change implies changes in the frequency and magnitude of flood events. The influence of climate variability on flooding was evaluated by an analysis of sedimentary (palaeofloods) and documentary archives. A 500-year palaeoflood record at Montlleó River (657 km2 in catchment area), [...] Read more.
Climate change implies changes in the frequency and magnitude of flood events. The influence of climate variability on flooding was evaluated by an analysis of sedimentary (palaeofloods) and documentary archives. A 500-year palaeoflood record at Montlleó River (657 km2 in catchment area), eastern Spain, revealed up to 31 palaeofloods with a range of discharges of 20–950 m3 s−1, and with at least five floods exceeding 740–950 m3 s−1. This information contrasts with the available gauged flood registers (since year 1971) with an annual maximum daily discharge of 129 m3 s−1. Our palaeoflood dataset indicates flood cluster episodes at (1) 1570–1620, (2) 1775–1795, (3) 1850–1890, and (4) 1920–1969. Flood rich periods 1 and 3 corresponded to cooler than usual (about 0.3 °C and 0.2 °C) climate oscillations, whereas 2 and 4 were characterised by higher inter-annual climatic variability (floods and droughts). This high inter-annual rainfall variability increased over the last 150 years, leading to a reduction of annual maximum flow. Flood quantiles (>50 years) calculated from palaeoflood+gauged data showed 30%–40% higher peak discharges than those using only instrumental records, whereas when increasing the catchment area (1500 km2) the discharge estimation variance decreased to ~15%. The results reflect the higher sensitivity of small catchments to changes on flood magnitude and frequency due to climate variability whereas a larger catchment buffers the response due to the limited extent of convective storms. Our findings show that extended flood records provide robust knowledge about hazardous flooding that can assist in the prioritization of low-regret actions for flood-risk adaptation to climate change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Influence of Climate Change on Floods)
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20 pages, 4613 KiB  
Article
Flood Simulations in Mid-Latitude Agricultural Land Using Regional Current and Future Extreme Weathers
by Nobuaki Kimura, Hirohide Kiri, Sachie Kanada, Iwao Kitagawa, Ikuo Yoshinaga and Hidenori Aiki
Water 2019, 11(11), 2421; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w11112421 - 19 Nov 2019
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3330
Abstract
Recent extreme weather events like the August 2016 flood disaster have significantly affected farmland in mid-latitude regions like the Tokachi River (TR) watershed, the most productive farmland in Japan. The August 2016 flood disaster was caused by multiple typhoons that occurred in the [...] Read more.
Recent extreme weather events like the August 2016 flood disaster have significantly affected farmland in mid-latitude regions like the Tokachi River (TR) watershed, the most productive farmland in Japan. The August 2016 flood disaster was caused by multiple typhoons that occurred in the span of two weeks and dealt catastrophic damage to agricultural land. This disaster was the focus of our flood model simulations. For the hydrological model input, the rainfall data with 0.04° grid space and an hourly interval were provided by a regional climate model (RCM) during the period of multiple typhoon occurrences. The high-resolution data can take account of the geographic effects, hardly reproduced by ordinary RCMs. The rainfall data drove a conceptual, distributed rainfall–runoff model, embedded in the integrated flood analysis system. The rainfall–runoff model provided discharges along rivers over the TR watershed. The RCM also provided future rainfall data with pseudo-global warming climate, assuming that the August 2016 disaster could reoccur again in the late 21st century. The future rainfall data were used to conduct a future flood simulation. With bias corrections, current and future flood simulations showed the potential inundated areas along riverbanks based on flood risk levels. The crop field-based agricultural losses in both simulations were estimated. The future cost may be two to three times higher as indicated by slightly higher simulated future discharge peaks in tributaries. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Influence of Climate Change on Floods)
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19 pages, 6537 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Changes in Annual Maximum Precipitations in the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change
by Carlos Garijo and Luis Mediero
Water 2019, 11(11), 2375; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w11112375 - 13 Nov 2019
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 2464
Abstract
Climate model projections can be used to assess the future expected behavior of extreme precipitation due to climate change. In Europe, the EURO-CORDEX project provides precipitation projections in the future under various representative concentration pathways (RCP), through regionalized outputs of Global Climate Models [...] Read more.
Climate model projections can be used to assess the future expected behavior of extreme precipitation due to climate change. In Europe, the EURO-CORDEX project provides precipitation projections in the future under various representative concentration pathways (RCP), through regionalized outputs of Global Climate Models (GCM) by a set of Regional Climate Models (RCM). In this work, 12 combinations of GCM and RCM under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) supplied by the EURO-CORDEX project are analyzed in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Precipitation quantiles for a set of exceedance probabilities are estimated by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function fitted by the L-moment method. Precipitation quantiles expected in the future period are compared with the precipitation quantiles in the control period, for each climate model. An approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is developed to assess the uncertainty from the climate model projections. Expected changes in the future are compared with the sampling uncertainty in the control period to identify statistically significant changes. The higher the significance threshold, the fewer cells with changes are identified. Consequently, a set of maps are obtained for various thresholds to assist the decision making process in subsequent climate change studies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Influence of Climate Change on Floods)
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16 pages, 4360 KiB  
Article
Selection of Bias Correction Methods to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Curves
by Enrique Soriano, Luis Mediero and Carlos Garijo
Water 2019, 11(11), 2266; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w11112266 - 29 Oct 2019
Cited by 39 | Viewed by 8814
Abstract
Climate projections provided by EURO-CORDEX predict changes in annual maximum series of daily rainfall in the future in some areas of Spain because of climate change. Precipitation and temperature projections supplied by climate models do not usually fit exactly the statistical properties of [...] Read more.
Climate projections provided by EURO-CORDEX predict changes in annual maximum series of daily rainfall in the future in some areas of Spain because of climate change. Precipitation and temperature projections supplied by climate models do not usually fit exactly the statistical properties of the observed time series in the control period. Bias correction methods are used to reduce such errors. This paper seeks to find the most adequate bias correction techniques for temperature and precipitation projections that minimizes the errors between observations and climate model simulations in the control period. Errors in flood quantiles are considered to identify the best bias correction techniques, as flood quantiles are used for hydraulic infrastructure design and safety assessment. In addition, this study aims to understand how the expected changes in precipitation extremes and temperature will affect the catchment response in flood events in the future. Hydrological modelling is required to characterize rainfall-runoff processes adequately in a changing climate, in order to estimate flood changes expected in the future. Four catchments located in the central-western part of Spain have been selected as case studies. The HBV hydrological model has been calibrated in the four catchments by using the observed precipitation, temperature and streamflow data available on a daily scale. Rainfall has been identified as the most significant input to the model, in terms of its influence on flood response. The quantile mapping polynomial correction has been found to be the best bias correction method for precipitation. A general reduction in flood quantiles is expected in the future, smoothing the increases identified in precipitation quantiles by the reduction of soil moisture content in catchments, due to the expected increase in temperature and decrease in mean annual precipitations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Influence of Climate Change on Floods)
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