Research

21 pages, 4090 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Application of the MUSLE Model and Potential Effects of Climate Change in a Small Alpine Catchment in Northern Italy

by Francesca Berteni, Arianna Dada and Giovanna Grossi

Water 2021, 13(19), 2679; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13192679 - 28 Sep 2021

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 6027

The evaluation of sediment yield by water erosion taking into consideration the possible impact of climate change is the object of this work, concerning the use of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) in an Italian case study. This empirical model was [...] Read more.

The evaluation of sediment yield by water erosion taking into consideration the possible impact of climate change is the object of this work, concerning the use of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) in an Italian case study. This empirical model was implemented in a Geographical Information System, taking into account Alpine hydrology and geomorphological and climate parameters, which are crucial in the analysis of the intensity and variability of sediment yield production processes. The case study is the Guerna Creek basin, a small-sized mountain watershed placed in Lombardy, in the South-Central Alps (Northern Italy). In recent decades it has been hit at the same time by floods and erosive phenomena, showing its hydraulic-hydrological weakness. Three future climate change scenarios from 2041 to 2060, around the middle of this century, were built according to CORDEX data referring to three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). The findings showed that in the future climate, the sediment yield at the basin scale might change by 24–44% for a single heavy storm in the middle of the current century. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Water Resources Management)

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16 pages, 5774 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the Near and the Far Future Streamflow in the Bocheongcheon Basin of Geumgang River, South Korea

by Yoonji Kim, Jieun Yu, Kyungil Lee, Hye In Chung, Hyun Chan Sung and Seongwoo Jeon

Water 2021, 13(18), 2516; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13182516 - 14 Sep 2021

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2627

Abstract

Highly concentrated precipitation during the rainy season poses challenges to the South Korean water resources management in efficiently storing and redistributing water resources. Under the new climate regime, water resources management is likely to become more challenging with regards to water-related disaster risk [...] Read more.

Highly concentrated precipitation during the rainy season poses challenges to the South Korean water resources management in efficiently storing and redistributing water resources. Under the new climate regime, water resources management is likely to become more challenging with regards to water-related disaster risk and deterioration of water quality. To alleviate such issues by adjusting management plans, this study examined the impact of climate change on the streamflow in the Bocheongcheon basin of the Geumgang river. A globally accepted hydrologic model, the HEC-HMS model, was chosen for the simulation. By the calibration and the validation processes, the model performance was evaluated to range between “satisfactory” and “very good”. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the future streamflow over six decades from 2041 to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicated significant increase in the future streamflow of the study site in all months and seasons over the simulation period. Intensification of seasonal differences and fluctuations was projected under RCP 8.5, implying a challenge for water resources managers to secure stable sources of clean water and to prevent water-related disasters. The analysis of the simulation results was applied to suggest possible local adaptive water resources management policy. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Water Resources Management)

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19 pages, 2020 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Estimating Future Peak Water Demand with a Regression Model Considering Climate Indices

by Anika Stelzl, Michael Pointl and Daniela Fuchs-Hanusch

Water 2021, 13(14), 1912; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13141912 - 10 Jul 2021

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2729

Abstract

Although Austria is a water-rich country, impacts of climate change on water supply are already noticeable. Some regions were affected by water scarcity in recent years. Due to climate change, an increase in peak water demand is expected in the future. Therefore, water [...] Read more.

Although Austria is a water-rich country, impacts of climate change on water supply are already noticeable. Some regions were affected by water scarcity in recent years. Due to climate change, an increase in peak water demand is expected in the future. Therefore, water demand prediction models that include climate indices are of interest. In this paper, we present a general multiple linear regression (GMLR) model that can be applied to selected study sites. We compared the performance of the GMLR model with different modeling approaches, i.e., stepwise multiple linear regression, support vector regression, random forest regression and a neural network approach. All models were trained with water demand and weather data reaching back several years and tested with the last available observation year. The applied modeling approaches achieved a similar performance. As a second step, the GMLR model was used to estimate the peak water demands for the time period 2025–2050. For the future water demand estimate, 16 different climate projections were used. These climate projections represent the worst-case climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). The expected increase in peak water demand could be confirmed with the modeling approach. An increase in peak water demand by 3.5% compared to the reference period was estimated. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Water Resources Management)

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17 pages, 6434 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Differences in Reference Evapotranspiration Variation and Climate-Driven Patterns in Different Altitudes of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (1961–2017)

by Yuan Liu, Xiaolei Yao, Qianyang Wang, Jingshan Yu, Qi Jiang, Weiwei Jiang and Luyi Li

Water 2021, 13(13), 1749; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13131749 - 24 Jun 2021

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 1804

Abstract

Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in the hydrological cycle is one of the processes that is significantly affected by climate change. The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is universally recognized as a region that is sensitive to climate change. In this study, an area [...] Read more.

Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in the hydrological cycle is one of the processes that is significantly affected by climate change. The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is universally recognized as a region that is sensitive to climate change. In this study, an area elevation curve is used to divide the study area into three elevation zones: low (below 2800 m), medium (2800–3800 m) and high (3800–5000 m). The cumulative anomaly curve, Mann–Kendall test, moving t-test and Yamamoto test results show that a descending mutation occurred in the 1980s, and an ascending mutation occurred in 2005. Moreover, a delay effect on the descending mutation in addition to an enhancement effect on the ascending mutation of the annual ET₀ were coincident with the increasing altitude below 5000 m. The annual ET₀ series for the QTP and different elevation zones showed an increasing trend from 1961 to 2017 and increased more significantly with the increase in elevation. Path analysis showed that the climate-driven patterns in different elevation zones are quite different. However, after the ascending mutations occurred in 2005, the maximum air temperature (Tmax) became the common dominant driving factor for the whole region and the three elevation zones. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Water Resources Management)

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18 pages, 4131 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Hydroclimatic Variability and Land Cover Transformations in the Central Italian Alps

by Matteo Balistrocchi, Massimo Tomirotti, Alessandro Muraca and Roberto Ranzi

Water 2021, 13(7), 963; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13070963 - 31 Mar 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3519

Abstract

Extreme streamflow nonstationarity has probably attracted more attention than mean streamflow nonstationarity in the assessment of the impacts of climate change on the water cycle. Nonetheless, a significant decrease in mean streamflow could lead to conditions of scarcity of freshwater in the long-term [...] Read more.

Extreme streamflow nonstationarity has probably attracted more attention than mean streamflow nonstationarity in the assessment of the impacts of climate change on the water cycle. Nonetheless, a significant decrease in mean streamflow could lead to conditions of scarcity of freshwater in the long-term period, seriously compromising the sustainability of the demand for civil, agricultural, and industrial uses. Regional analyses are useful to better characterize an area’s nonstationarity, since a clear trend at a global scale has not been detected yet. In this article, long-term and high-quality series of streamflow discharges observed in five rivers in the Central Italian Alps, including two multicentury series and two new precipitation and streamflow series not analyzed before, are investigated to statistically characterize individual trends of mean annual runoff volumes. Nonparametric pooled statistics are also introduced to assess the regional trend. Additional climatic and nonclimatic factors, namely, precipitation trends and land cover transformations, have also been considered as potential change drivers. Unlike precipitation, runoff volumes show a marked and statistically significant decrease of −1.45 mm/year, which appears to be homogeneous in the region. The land cover transformation analysis presented here revealed extensive woodland expansions of 510 km² in 2018 out of the 2650 km² area measured in 1954, representing 38% of the area investigated in this study: this anthropic driver of enhanced hydrologic losses can be recognized as an additional likely cause for the regional runoff volume decrease. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Water Resources Management)

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17 pages, 3618 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing the Influence of Compounding Factors to the Water Level Variation of Erhai Lake

by Huaxin Wu, Shengrui Wang, Tao Wu, Bo Yao and Zhaokui Ni

Water 2021, 13(1), 29; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13010029 - 26 Dec 2020

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2442

Abstract

Climate change and human activities cause lake water level (WL) fluctuations to exceed natural thresholds, with implications for the available water resources. Studies that explore WL change trends and the main driving forces that affect water level changes are essential for future lake [...] Read more.

Climate change and human activities cause lake water level (WL) fluctuations to exceed natural thresholds, with implications for the available water resources. Studies that explore WL change trends and the main driving forces that affect water level changes are essential for future lake water resource planning. This study uses the Mann–Kendall trend test method to explore the WL fluctuations trend and WL mutation in Erhai Lake (EL) during 1990–2019 and explore the main driving factors affecting water level changes, such as characteristic WL adjustments. We also use the principal component analysis to quantify the contribution of compound influencing factors to the water level change in different periods. The results showed that the WL rose at a rate of 47 mm/a during 1990–2019 but was influenced by the characteristic WL adjustment of EL in 2004 and the WL mutation in 2005. In 1990–2004, the WL showed a downtrend caused by the increase in water resource development and utilization intensity, and in 2005–2019, the WL showed an uptrend caused by the combined decrease in evaporation, outflow, and the increase in water supply for water conservancy projects. Additionally, the largest contributions of outflow to WL change were 19.34% and 21.61% in 1990–2019 and 1990–2004, respectively, while the largest contribution of cultivated area to WL change was 20.48% in 2005–2019, and it is worth noting that the largest contribution of climate change to WL change was 40.35% in 2013–2019. In the future, under the increase in outflow and evaporation and the interception of inflow, the WL will decline (Hurst exponent = 0.048). Therefore, planning for the protection and management of lakes should consider the impact of human activities, while also paying attention to the influence of climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Water Resources Management)

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25 pages, 4008 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand Under Climate Change Impacts and Management Options in Tributary Basin of Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

by Tharo Touch, Chantha Oeurng, Yanan Jiang and Ali Mokhtar

Water 2020, 12(9), 2462; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w12092462 - 02 Sep 2020

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 5719

Abstract

An integrated modeling approach analyzing water demand and supply balances under management options in a river basin is essential for the management and adaptive measures of water resources in the future. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime [...] Read more.

An integrated modeling approach analyzing water demand and supply balances under management options in a river basin is essential for the management and adaptive measures of water resources in the future. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime by predicting the change in both monthly and seasonal streamflow, and identified water supply and demand relations under supply management options and environmental flow maintenance. To reach a better understanding of the consequences of possible climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply, an integrated modeling approach was conducted by using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and water evaluation and planning model (WEAP). Future scenarios were developed for the future period: 2060s (2051–2070), using an ensemble of three general circulation model (GCM) simulations: GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R-CC, and IPSL-CM5A-MR, driven by the climate projection for representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 6.0 (medium emission scenario). The results indicated that, firstly, the future streamflow will decrease, resulting in a decline of future water availability. Secondly, water supply under natural flow conditions would support 46,167 ha of irrigation schemes and the water shortages will be more noticeable when environmental flow maintenance was considered. The study concludes that reservoir construction would be necessary for agriculture mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, the water resources management options considering both supply and demand management are more effective and useful than supply management only, particularly in dealing with climate change impacts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Water Resources Management)

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27 pages, 11950 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Field Investigation on Hydroabrasion in High-Speed Sediment-Laden Flows at Sediment Bypass Tunnels

by Michelle Müller-Hagmann, Ismail Albayrak, Christian Auel and Robert M. Boes

Water 2020, 12(2), 469; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w12020469 - 10 Feb 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3050

Abstract

Wear due to sediment particles in fluid flows, also termed ‘hydroabrasion’ or simply ‘abrasion’, is an omnipresent issue at hydraulic structures as well as in bedrock rivers. However, interactions between flow field, particle motion, channel topography, material properties and abrasion have rarely been [...] Read more.

Wear due to sediment particles in fluid flows, also termed ‘hydroabrasion’ or simply ‘abrasion’, is an omnipresent issue at hydraulic structures as well as in bedrock rivers. However, interactions between flow field, particle motion, channel topography, material properties and abrasion have rarely been investigated on a prototype scale, leaving many open questions as to their quantitative interrelations. Therefore, we investigated hydroabrasion in a multi-year field study at two Swiss Sediment Bypass Tunnels (SBTs). Abrasion depths of various invert materials, hydraulics and sediment transport conditions were determined and used to compute the abrasion coefficients k_v of different abrasion models for high-strength concrete and granite. The results reveal that these models are useful to estimate spatially averaged abrasion rates. The k_v‑value is about one order of magnitude higher for granite than for high-strength concrete, hence, using material-specific abrasion coefficients enhances the prediction accuracy. Three-dimensional flow structures, i.e., secondary currents occurring both, in the straight and curved sections of the tunnels cause incision channels, while also longitudinally undulating abrasion patterns were observed. Furthermore, hydroabrasion concentrated along joints and protruding edges. The maximum abrasion depths were roughly twice the mean abrasion depths, irrespective of hydraulics, sediment transport conditions and invert material. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Water Resources Management)

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