Research

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18 pages, 1637 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Hydrodynamic Model Ensembles for Climate Change Projections in Estuarine Regions

by Isabel Iglesias, Ana Bio, Willian Melo, Paulo Avilez-Valente, José Pinho, Mariana Cruz, Ana Gomes, José Vieira, Luísa Bastos and Fernando Veloso-Gomes

Water 2022, 14(12), 1966; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14121966 - 20 Jun 2022

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2132

Abstract

In the current context of climate change, understanding the effects of the changing conditions on estuaries is of utmost importance to protect populations and ecosystems. Given the diversity of impacts depending on the region, there is a need for local and dedicated studies [...] Read more.

In the current context of climate change, understanding the effects of the changing conditions on estuaries is of utmost importance to protect populations and ecosystems. Given the diversity of impacts depending on the region, there is a need for local and dedicated studies to understand and mitigate the risks. Numerical models can provide forecasts of extreme floods and sea-level rise (SLR). However, they can present inaccuracies. In this work, the ensemble technique was applied to improve the numerical modeling forecasting for estuaries by considering scenarios of extreme river flow discharges (EFDs) and SLR scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The simulations were performed for two different estuarine regions in northern Portugal, and the superensemble was constructed with the results of two different numerical models. The results differed per estuary, highlighting the importance of a local approach. For the Douro estuary dynamics, the results showed that for the EFD, the effects of the SLR were not noticeable, indicating that, in this estuary, the river component was more important than the maritime component. In contrast, the Minho estuary dynamics were found to be affected by the SLR along the whole estuarine region, indicating a maritime influence and a worsening of the flood conditions for future scenarios. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling of Floods and Droughts under a Changing Climate)

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24 pages, 11867 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Development of a New Multivariate Composite Drought Index for the Blue Nile River Basin

by Marwa Ali, Mostafa Ghaith, Ahmed Wagdy and Ahmed M. Helmi

Water 2022, 14(6), 886; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14060886 - 11 Mar 2022

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3744

Abstract

Drought is a slow-onset phenomenon that evolves over a season or even years. Drought affects people more than any other natural disaster due to its widespread and significant negative impacts. Population growth and associated water demand add further stress on water resources, especially [...] Read more.

Drought is a slow-onset phenomenon that evolves over a season or even years. Drought affects people more than any other natural disaster due to its widespread and significant negative impacts. Population growth and associated water demand add further stress on water resources, especially in periods of drought. Drought indices represent a single value resulting from processing a considerable amount of data. These indices provide a short message to stakeholders to adapt water resource management strategies. Since drought results from interconnected phenomena, designing a composite drought index that includes several drought indices can accurately capture drought events. Drought assessment over a large-scale basin (e.g., the Blue Nile) is a challenging objective that has not been deeply tackled before except for small portions of the basin. This paper assessed droughts over the whole basin by evaluating meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought indices. The calculated drought indices (Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and standardized soil moisture index (SSI)) in addition to the development of a new standardized evapotranspiration index (sETI) are jointly integrated into a novel composite drought index for the Blue Nile (BNI). The optimal weights for SPI, SRI, sETI, and SSI were 0.33, 0.26, 0.2, and 0.19, respectively, in the designed BNI. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling of Floods and Droughts under a Changing Climate)

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Review

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13 pages, 2329 KiB

Open AccessReview

Systematic Review of Flood and Drought Literature Based on Science Mapping and Content Analysis

by Siavash Fasihi, Wen Zyn Lim, Wenyan Wu and David Proverbs

Water 2021, 13(19), 2788; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13192788 - 08 Oct 2021

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 5435

Abstract

The severity and frequency of flood and drought events have increased in recent decades. These climate change-induced and anthropogenic stressors on water resources represent the leading water-related hazards to communities. Further, the increasing exposure of the population and infrastructure to such events has [...] Read more.

The severity and frequency of flood and drought events have increased in recent decades. These climate change-induced and anthropogenic stressors on water resources represent the leading water-related hazards to communities. Further, the increasing exposure of the population and infrastructure to such events has heightened the risks. Assessing the impact scope of these events in different subfields towards comprehensively evaluating the risks requires an unbiased systematic approach. This paper combines content analysis and science mapping to investigate the existing multidisciplinary body of knowledge on analyzing flood and drought together. Searching the literature using selected search terms yielded a sample of 119 publications. Initially, various contents, such as the authors’ keywords, applied methods and indices, and study scale, were extracted from these articles. These contents were then incorporated into the science mapping technique to form communicative networks. Analyzing these publications revealed 13 major research themes, with a sustained focus on hydrological issues. However, a more diverse range of themes was recently revealed, including economy, sociology, insurance, and policymaking. Producing such computational and visual networks explained informative insights that can help further develop both existing and new frameworks to support the management, design and policymaking sectors in responding to both flood and drought events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling of Floods and Droughts under a Changing Climate)

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