Advances in Real-Time Flood Forecasting

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 December 2022) | Viewed by 2763

Special Issue Editors


E-Mail Website1 Website2
Guest Editor
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Ulsan, Ulsan 44022, Korea
Interests: hydrology and hydraulics; flood forecast modeling; surrogate modeling; machine learning; remote sensing; climate change

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Guest Editor
Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA 99354, USA
Interests: watershed modelling; sensitivity/uncertainty analysis; river corridor hydro-biogeochemistry modelling; disturbance and climate change; sampling design; remotely sensed data analysis
Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA
Interests: climate change; hindcast and forecast modeling; extreme value analysis

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extreme flooding is increasing worldwide and remains the deadliest weather-related hazard, especially in densely populated areas. Real-time forecasting with sufficient lead time is paramount in order to significantly mitigate damage from flooding. Such results must be delivered within a predetermined time horizon and with enough accuracy to promote community confidence in actions taken to prepare for an emergency.

Despite extensive efforts to improve forecasting accuracy, predictability, and efficiency, real-time flood forecasting is still being hindered due to the complexity of natural phenomena represented by equifinality, hysteresis, non-uniqueness, non-linearity, and internal variability. Application in urban environments can be more challenging, as much finer spatial resolution is needed in the models to resolve interactions among streets, buildings, and other infrastructures.

This Special Issue aims to collect papers on current efforts to simulate real-time flood forecasting in watersheds of varying scales and environments with urban characteristics. The following list provides an overview of the topics we are looking for, but is not exhaustive.

  • Techniques to improve model accuracy and quantify model uncertainties, such as data assimilation, model calibration, and optimization.
  • Data-driven methods to increase model efficiency while preserving model accuracy, such as deep learning and surrogate modeling.
  • Reduced modeling techniques to reduce dimensionalities at larger spatial and finer temporal scales.
  • Remote sensing techniques relevant to enriching the availability of model inputs and outputs.
  • Application of real-time flood forecasting with a particular interest in developing countries and data-poor regions.

Prof. Dr. Jongho Kim
Dr. Kyongho Son
Dr. Seongho Ahn
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • real-time flood forecasting
  • urban flood
  • uncertainty quantification
  • deep learning
  • surrogate modeling
  • data assimilation
  • remote sensing
  • numerical models

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

16 pages, 4549 KiB  
Article
Runoff Prediction Based on the Discharge of Pump Stations in an Urban Stream Using a Modified Multi-Layer Perceptron Combined with Meta-Heuristic Optimization
by Won Jin Lee and Eui Hoon Lee
Water 2022, 14(1), 99; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14010099 - 04 Jan 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2009
Abstract
Runoff in urban streams is the most important factor influencing urban inundation. It also affects inundation in other areas as various urban streams and rivers are connected. Current runoff predictions obtained using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) exhibit limited accuracy. In this study, the [...] Read more.
Runoff in urban streams is the most important factor influencing urban inundation. It also affects inundation in other areas as various urban streams and rivers are connected. Current runoff predictions obtained using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) exhibit limited accuracy. In this study, the runoff of urban streams was predicted by applying an MLP using a harmony search (MLPHS) to overcome the shortcomings of MLPs using existing optimizers and compared with the observed runoff and the runoff predicted by an MLP using a real-coded genetic algorithm (RCGA). Furthermore, the results of the MLPHS were compared with the results of the MLP with existing optimizers such as the stochastic gradient descent, adaptive gradient, and root mean squared propagation. The runoff of urban steams was predicted based on the discharge of each pump station and rainfall information. The results obtained with the MLPHS exhibited the smallest error of 39.804 m3/s when compared to the peak value of the observed runoff. The MLPHS gave more accurate runoff prediction results than the MLP using the RCGA and that using existing optimizers. The accurate prediction of the runoff in an urban stream using an MLPHS based on the discharge of each pump station is possible. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Real-Time Flood Forecasting)
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