1. Introduction
The contribution of the transport sector to the final energy consumption of Malaysia is among the highest across all sectors of energy use. Final energy use in the transport sector has shown to be the most urgent issue to be addressed by the Malaysian government. Since the late 1970s, along with industrial sector use, it has almost the same share until 2008 when a divergent trend began to appear, and the transport sector’s consumption continued to rise exponentially while industrial sector energy demand mellowed (
Figure 1). In 2014, the share of final energy use by the transport sector breached 46%, the highest in history and was still hovering above 40% in the year 2017 (
Figure 2).
While the transport sector comprises the land, marine and air sector, this analysis focuses on land transport, primarily the use of petrol fuel in the internal combustion engine (ICE) motor vehicles, specifically cars. The increase in the rate of motorisation, including light-duty vehicles (LDV) or cars, has been steady since early the 1990s [
3,
4]. This focus is due to the enormous growth in car numbers, from around 4 million in 2000 to almost 13 million units in 2016 [
5]. In addition, this segment of land transport is the biggest user of energy in the sector. Therefore, addressing energy use by the ever-increasing fleet of cars is imperative to reduce fuel consumption and mitigate its ensuing emissions. In this study, this is achieved by improving the fuel economy of cars.
For this study, we define FE as a measure of how energy efficient a motor vehicle is, commonly understood as the rate of its fuel consumption measured by calculating the amount of fuel used for every unit distance travelled [
6]. FE is also driven by essential factors, including powertrain efficiency to convert fuel energy to functional work at the wheels, vehicle weight, speed, aerodynamics, tyres rolling resistance and many more [
6]. However, the simple idea of energy use per unit distance moved is the working definition adopted by governments and international organisations worldwide in their reports [
7,
8,
9].
There are many ways to improve the FE situation, and these include FE standards, which is a regulatory measure; fuel labelling, which is an information and awareness measure; innovation in vehicle technology; and fiscal measures [
7,
10,
11]. Some of these have been implemented in some developed economies such as Australia, Canada, the EU and the US, with some early adopters in Asia, including China, India, Japan and South Korea [
7,
8,
12,
13]. In the Southeast Asian (SEA) region, Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand had introduced a vehicle fuel economy labelling scheme in 2012, 2014 and 2015, respectively [
14], whereas fuel economy labels are voluntary in Indonesia. While no ASEAN member states have mandatory FE standards, fuel consumption or CO
2 emissions policies, Singapore and Thailand have fiscal policies on vehicles based on their emissions [
9].
The focus of this study is the benefits of having a Fuel Economy (FE) standard, which improves the fuel economy of these vehicles by a mandatory measure [
10,
15]. FE standard is a type of regulation that sets a limit to vehicle fuel consumption for new vehicles entering the market when the standard is in place [
7,
9]. This is done by the introduction of specific regulations by the government, for example, the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (CAFE) in the US [
16,
17] and the ‘Top Runner’ energy efficiency program in Japan [
8,
11]. These regulations compel the vehicle manufacturers to meet the FE target set by the regulator by making their vehicles more fuel-efficient, not at the individual vehicle level, due to factors that drive FE described above. However, it is designed as a fleet-wide average to allow for a flexible mix of various models introduced into the market, like the US CAFE [
8]. It is a fact that Malaysia has yet to have implemented FE standard measure for its car market. Implementing a FE standard policy for cars in Malaysia is needed to reduce its ever-increasing fuel use and emissions in the transport sector, which depends on the dedication and will of the government to implement this measure. This study analyses and discuss just how much energy can be saved and emissions can be curbed by this measure. Without FE standard policy, there is no push for the automotive industry to introduce new car models into the market with the best fuel-efficient technology. If this is coupled with the fuel price situation, which is subsidised in the form of sales tax exemption, unnecessary fuel use will continue to prevail [
18], at the expense of the national fiscal situation, health of the people and the environment. By introducing this policy, Malaysia has the opportunity to address these pressing issues.
2. Methods
For this study, we have adapted the method developed by [
19] to investigate the impact of adopting a fuel economy standards policy on passenger vehicles. We employed many of the equations and explain the principles of calculations in the subsequent sections. We have listed the symbols employed in the Nomenclature list. In short, we will first forecast the number of cars and fuel consumption amount using a polynomial curve-fitting method of the latest published data. These are used to determine the average fuel use per unit distance travel (the FE of the car) for each year in the available and forecasted data. There will be a natural improvement of FE, even without the imposition of FE standard due to normal automotive technology advancement. We forecast the natural improvement of FE and the corresponding fuel use as a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. We then forecast the number of cars affected by the mandatory FE policy (STD). The affected cars will be imposed a mandatory FE number, based on percentage reduction of BAU FE during the first year of implementation. We then calculate the difference of fuel use under BAU and STD scenarios as fuel savings and its avoided emissions. This method is suitable for fuel use analysis at the macro level, where we do not have granular insights into the respective car segment. The flexibility of this method was utilised by [
20] in their study to calculate fuel savings. This study includes the added analysis of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, not previously calculated by [
20].
We sourced input data for the model from various government reports, statistics and previous literature. The numbers of privately owned vehicles were sourced from [
5,
20]. Energy consumption in the form of petrol fuel data was sourced from [
1]. We only include vehicles that run on petrol (gasoline) for this study. The focus on petrol was based on the substantial number of petrol-powered ICE cars (taken to be 89% overall) compared with non-petrol-powered vehicles [
21]. The annual petrol fuel consumption (1990–2018) and the corresponding total number of cars (1990 to 2016) are taken from various sources and demonstrated in
Table 1.
2.1. Projection of Petrol Fuel Consumption and Motor Vehicle Numbers
The basis of reduction in petrol fuel consumption and its corresponding emissions realised by the FE standards implementation hinges upon two important factors, namely the annual fuel consumption and motor vehicle numbers. The polynomial regression is instrumental and reliable in projecting future values beyond the presently available data. We define variable x as the number of the year, whereas variable y is the number of cars and petrol fuel consumption as a function of available data x. Polynomial regression enables the best fit line to fit available data points to make future predictions. The following equation represents a polynomial function of order k in x used in this study:
2.2. Potential Fuel Savings Calculations
2.2.1. Base Year Baseline Fuel Consumption,
The baseline fuel consumption is the current state of affairs, also called the BAU situation. The base year
is taken as the year 2018 as the latest of the real data available. It is easy to determine the baseline fuel consumption for products with standards already implemented, taken as the standard or the rating level. Since Malaysia has no fuel FE standard for cars, we assumed that the baseline fuel consumption for cars is equal to the annual average of fuel consumption of cars. The total fuel consumption (petrol) in litres divided by the numbers of petrol-powered ICE cars in Malaysia, as per the following equation:
2.2.2. Average Annual Fuel Economy Rating,
We calculate the fuel economy of a motor vehicle by averaging the distance travelled by the unit of fuel consumed, typically measured in either miles per gallon (mpg) or kilometres per litres (km/L). The average annual kilometres travelled by car is multiplied by the total number of cars divided by the total fuel consumption in litres. The average fuel economy rating is then:
2.2.3. Annual Fuel Economy Improvement,
This parameter is the overall percentage improvement of all cars’ fuel consumption on a year-on-year basis. This results from natural technological advancement in automotive technology that enables the cars, overall to travel the same average distance with less fuel. This parameter is represented by the following equation:
2.2.4. Future Baseline Fuel Consumption,
We define this parameter as the baseline for petrol fuel use by the whole car population in the policy implementation year (Y
s) in a BAU scenario. This parameter is predicted from the projection of the fuel consumption that experiences natural fuel economy improvement over the years. The
is applied a compounding interest function whereby the interest rate is taken as the average of the annual fuel economy improvement (
) (throughout the years of available data), over the number of years from the
and
.
is represented by:
2.2.5. Fuel Consumption under FE Standard Implementation,
The fuel consumption under FE standard implementation is the discounted value of the
of the percentage reduction of fuel use applied under the FE standard. It is the FE improvement from the future baseline fuel consumption, demonstrated as follows:
2.2.6. Initial Unit Fuel Savings,
Initial unit fuel savings is the difference between the baseline fuel consumption in the first year FE standard is rolled out (BAU, in the absence of FE standard) and the reduced petrol use of the cars under the implementation of the FE standard (applicable to the affected vehicles under the standard). The expression for the initial unit fuel savings is as follows:
2.2.7. Shipment,
We adapted the concept of ‘shipment’ from [
19]. This parameter is a description of the included stock of cars under the FE standard implementation, as not all cars in the first year FE standard is rolled out is included by the policy, namely the previous year’s model of the cars. The number of cars affected by the FE standard is the sum of the difference between the number of cars in the current and the past year (the newly registered cars in the current year), and the replacement stock of the scrapped cars the same year (due to reaching its end-of-life). For example, if the general lifespan L of the vehicles is ten years, then these cars will be scrapped in 10 years time, and the total replacement for these cars will be back in the system in the 11th year. The following expression demonstrates the concept of shipment of the cars:
2.2.8. Overall Fuel Economy Improvement,
We define the overall fuel economy improvement as a measure of the initial unit fuel savings from the future baseline fuel (in Y
s). The parameter is expressed as:
2.2.9. Scaling Factor,
The scaling factor is a concept of the natural decrease of fuel consumption of the overall available cars in the country. This parameter is enabled by natural technological advances in the automotive industry, making the cars more fuel-efficient over time, even without the enforcement of an FE standard. Scaling factor reduces the initial unit fuel savings of the cars over the effective span of the policy implementation in a linear manner. In each year after the implementation of the FE standard, this parameter affects the unit fuel savings in that particular year. The scaling factor is expressed as:
2.2.10. Unit Fuel Savings,
This parameter is the value of the unit fuel savings for each year after the implementation of FE standard. Due to the natural technological advancement in the automotive industry as described above, this value is adjusted with the scaling factor
annually, and expressed as:
2.2.11. Shipment Survival Factor,
The
is a concept of the common survival rate of a product in light of its average lifespan L. The concept is introduced in [
19,
22]. The ‘shipment’ of the cars will survive 100% up to 2/3 of its lifespan L. If the age of the car’s stock is more than 2/3 of average lifespan L but less than 1 1/3 of the average lifespan L, the survival rate is expressed as [2 − Age × 1.5/(Average Life)]. For the age of over 4/3 of its average lifespan L, 0% of the stock survives. This factor can be graphically demonstrated as per
Figure 3.
2.2.12. Affected Stock,
We define the affected stock of cars for the adherence to the FE standards as the shipment of cars in the specific year multiplied by the shipment survival factor, plus the number of cars under the standards in the previous year. Therefore, the expression for the parameter is as follows:
2.2.13. Fuel Savings,
The fuel savings are the actual savings of fuel consumed under the FE standard implementation. It is determined by the unit fuel savings and the applicable stock and expressed as:
2.3. Potential Emissions Reduction, ERi
Emissions can potentially be reduced when there is substantial fuel saving resulting from the FE standard implementation. The most common tailpipe emissions of cars include methane (CH
4), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO
2), nitrous oxide (N
2O), nitrogen oxides (NO
X) and sulphur dioxide (SO
2). The tailpipe emissions avoided are calculated from the total fuel savings and the emission factors of the respective gases per unit litre of petrol. The emissions reduction is therefore expressed by:
4. Conclusions
The analysis in this study for the implementation of the FE standard in the year 2025 is fortunately timed with the commitments of the Malaysian government in reducing its GHG emissions by the year 2030. This study forecasted the stock of cars in the study period and its corresponding fuel savings and emissions mitigation under the FE standard implementation. The key findings that we have found are that, in the period of implementation, fuel savings of 16.2 billion litres of petrol or more than 12,300 ktoe can be achieved, along with the reduction in at least 37.6 million tons CO2 equivalent GHG emissions. In Malaysia’s official projection to the UNFCCC, under the BAU scenario, the GHG emissions up to the year 2030 (from 2005) is 549,535 Gg CO2 eq (549.535 million Ton CO2 eq), while the mitigation plan scenario is expected to lower this value to 510,205 Gg CO2 eq (510.205 million Ton CO2 eq). The reduction of the overall 39.3 million Ton CO2 eq pledged by Malaysia in its Third National Communication and Second Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC seems within reach with just this FE standard implementation. These certainly will do well for Malaysia in meeting its commitments to the international community.
The implementation of a FE standard policy for cars in Malaysia is a promising policy to help Malaysia reduce its energy use from the transport sector. This step could be one of the most effective measures, among other FE initiatives [
12], nudged positively by the discussion and public discourse of the policy that has happened at various levels within Malaysia and regionally [
8,
9,
31]. However, Malaysia still has a lot to do before the implementation of the FE standard can be realised.
Malaysia has policy documents that outline the intention to have the FE standard implementation timed nicely within the timeframe of this analysis [
32,
33,
34]. Specifically, the Ministry of Transport (MOT) (the ministry in charge of transport policies and regulations) plan to formulate and implement a fuel economy policy between the year 2019 and 2030 [
34]. In addition, a further commitment was made by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) (the ministry in charge of the development of automotive industry), “pledged to reduce carbon emission by improving fuel economy level in Malaysia by 2025 in line with the ASEAN Fuel Economy Roadmap of 5.3 Lge/100 km” [
33]. Both the government automotive and transport policy statements [
33,
34] for the FE as outlined above indicate that Malaysia is on the right track towards the realisation of the policy.
Despite all these, Malaysia needs to designate a body focusing on the technical aspects and regulatory matters to realise this policy [
35]. While various government agencies are related to road transport, prior existing jurisdictions rendered the policy fall in between the cracks, as no specific government agency in Malaysia is responsible for both energy use and transport under its roof. For the technical aspect, one of the actions required involves the driving test cycle suitable for the local situation for measuring the right FE situation. The IEA has outlined the policy pathway and critical actions to implement FE policies, including deciding on the form of standard, target values, introducing a mechanism for increased vehicle weights as part of the policy design process, before implementing and monitoring the progress of the policy implementation [
11]. The implementation of FE standard itself should regularly be updated as natural improvements happen over time, rendering the standard obsolete. In addition, conflicting priorities like the encouragement of car ownership as a support to the national automotive industry [
3] and curbing energy usage from car use through the implementation of FE standard may impact the competitiveness of the national car industry. This is where Malaysia should resolve its will so that the implementation of the FE standard becomes a reality.