Sustainability Implications of the Arctic Shipping Route for Shanghai Port Logistics in the Post-Pandemic Era

Abstract

Amidst the transformation of logistics dynamics due to the global pandemic, the attention directed toward the effects of the Arctic shipping route on Shanghai Port has intensified. This study thoroughly investigates the incorporation of the Arctic shipping route into Shanghai Port logistics, with a dedicated focus on sustainability implications in the post-pandemic era. Leveraging both gravity models and stochastic frontier gravity models, we meticulously analyze the multifaceted opportunities and challenges stemming from this integration, highlighting the pivotal roles of economic growth and geographical proximity. The empirical analysis, spanning the years 2010 to 2021, provides compelling evidence of the Arctic shipping route’s positive effects on the logistical operations of Shanghai Port. The analysis highlights its potential to substantially enhance trade volumes, streamline logistical efficiency, and broaden transit options. Additionally, our assessment of the post-pandemic challenges and opportunities faced by Shanghai Port underscores its adaptability and resilience in the constantly shifting trade milieu. Overall, this study makes significant contributions by offering a comprehensive perspective on the complex interplay between economic, geographical, and external factors. The insights provided here serve as invaluable guidance for policymakers, trade analysts, and businesses that are navigating the intricacies of the contemporary global trade environment. Our findings aim to foster sustainable and resilient trade relationships, facilitating the development of port logistics in the post-pandemic era.

1. Introduction

1.1. Background

The escalation of global carbon emissions has triggered a perilous warming trend worldwide, leading to the accelerated thawing of the once-frozen Arctic glaciers. Consequently, previously ice-bound routes within the Arctic region have emerged, marking a significant environmental transformation. The backdrop of the ongoing climate crisis has been further compounded by the far-reaching implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, casting uncertainty over the global trade and logistics landscape. In light of these challenges, the focus has intensified on the opening of the Arctic shipping routes, underscoring the critical importance of sustainability for the planet and its ecosystems.

The potential commercialization of Arctic shipping routes holds the promise of substantially reducing maritime distances between nations, heralding an era of transformative and eco-friendly transportation. These changes are expected to not only cut transportation costs significantly but also boost profit margins, thus presenting a host of new collaborative opportunities and challenges for major ports situated along the Arctic corridor. Shanghai Port, prominently positioned within this context, stands as a beacon of sustainable and evolving port logistics in the post-pandemic era, supported by its strategic proximity to the Arctic route, robust economic standing, extensive economic hinterland, and government backing.

Furthermore, recent insights from the China Natural Science Network [1] underscore the research originating from the University of California, as featured in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Envisioning a future where the once-imposing Arctic ice cover weakens substantially by 2050, this research predicts the emergence of icebreaker-free routes that directly connect the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans across the Arctic expanse. This anticipated reduction in Arctic Sea ice symbolizes progress in environmentally friendly navigation, offering unimpeded routes and novel opportunities for ports. Notably, the advantages of Arctic shipping routes are closely intertwined with the sustainability and competitiveness of individual ports.

In consideration of these transformative developments, this paper meticulously explores the profound implications of Arctic shipping routes on the sustainable development of port logistics in Shanghai, particularly within the post-pandemic era.

1.2. Significance of the Study

Maritime transportation stands as a cornerstone of China’s foreign trade, playing an integral role within the industry. In recent years, as global trade and logistics have rapidly evolved, the Arctic shipping route has progressively emerged as a new frontier in international logistics transportation. Distinguished by its potential to considerably reduce travel distances and time, while simultaneously curbing transport costs and greenhouse gas emissions [2], this route has galvanized the attention of ports and logistics companies. Nevertheless, the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed unprecedented pressure and challenges upon the global trade and logistics sectors. Travel restrictions and lockdowns imposed widespread restrictions and left indelible impacts on international commerce and logistics. Consequently, the operationalization and development of Arctic shipping routes faced formidable constraints and underwent significant alterations.

Within this dynamic landscape, international ports and logistics entities initiated a profound reassessment of their transportation models, actively seeking pathways characterized by safety, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. The Arctic shipping route swiftly emerged as the focal point of interest for major container companies and port stakeholders. In the post-pandemic era, the opening of the Arctic shipping route carries profound implications for the future of port logistics development, particularly for influential ports like Shanghai Port, emphasizing a resounding commitment to sustainable growth. This paper embarks on a comprehensive exploration of this perspective.

In the aftermath of the pandemic, the evolution and enhancement of port logistics emerge as critical barometers of a port’s ability to harness the transformative opportunities presented by the Arctic route. Beyond mere adaptability, this progress represents a pivotal factor in anchoring a port’s dedication to sustainability. As we delve into the shifting tides and optimal directions of port logistics, we unravel a tapestry of far-reaching and instructive implications. The findings of this investigation stand poised to play a pivotal role in shaping an all-encompassing framework for the enhancement of Shanghai Port’s logistics, a blueprint that encompasses the full realization of the economic benefits that the Arctic route promises to deliver.

This research venture will meticulously scrutinize pertinent literature, providing a foundation for an exploration of the Arctic route’s evolution and operational shifts before and after the pandemic. Subsequently, a thorough analysis will be undertaken to discern the potential impact of Arctic route navigation on the development of Shanghai Port’s logistics. In tandem, this study will dissect the challenges and opportunities that underpin the sustainability of this developmental trajectory within the post-pandemic era. As the study progresses, empirical analysis will be conducted, anchored in the stochastic frontier gravity model.

Drawing from the insights derived from empirical analysis and informed interpretation, this study aims to provide valuable and actionable recommendations. These recommendations are strategically poised to effectively address the influence of Arctic route navigation on the trajectory of Shanghai Port’s logistics development within the post-pandemic era. It is through this analytical lens and the research endeavors of this study that we strive to empower relevant ports and logistics enterprises with a wealth of practical insights and experiential knowledge, equipping them to navigate the intricate landscape of the post-pandemic era, always underpinned by a steadfast commitment to sustainability.

2. Literature Review

The opening of the Arctic route has not only reduced navigation costs through shorter distances but has also led to decreased fuel consumption. Andersson and Asplund (2022) provide an economic assessment that delves into the reduced costs and fuel consumption resulting from the opening of the Arctic shipping route [3]. Similarly, Ivanova and Petrov (2023) shed light on the significant impact of the Arctic route on global trade, specifically focusing on the reductions in navigation costs and fuel consumption [4]. Chen and Wang (2023) analyze the economic benefits linked to the Arctic route, highlighting the implications of lower navigation costs and reduced fuel consumption [5]. These studies collectively emphasize the substantial advantages arising from the Arctic route’s reduced navigation distances, underscoring its profound impact on the maritime industry.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been profound, reshaping various sectors and triggering a fundamental reevaluation of traditional operational paradigms. The closure of facilities due to COVID-19 lockdowns, disruptions in the supply chain, transition to remote operations, and reduced productivity due to health risk perceptions are all notable effects. Several studies, such as the analysis of passenger ships in Danish waters [6] and the research on supply chain disruption management strategies [7], have highlighted the significant challenges faced during the pandemic. Additionally, the assessment of social distancing behavior in China [8] and the comprehensive literature review on pandemic supply chain research [9] have shed light on the diverse impacts and strategies for managing the disruptions. Furthermore, considering the comprehensive literature review and structured bibliometric network analysis on supply chains under COVID-19 disruptions [10], the far-reaching consequences on global supply chains have become evident. These impacts have necessitated agile and adaptive strategies to mitigate the disruptions and ensure the continuity of operations.

With a specific focus on the shipping sector, the global trade and logistics sectors have encountered substantial difficulties and challenges with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, these encompass an escalation in trade barriers and protectionism, as well as disruptions and constraints on the global supply chain. In response to these predicaments, numerous port and logistics enterprises have begun contemplating adjustments to their transportation and delivery models. The aim is to identify logistics pathways that offer enhanced safety, expedited transit times, and reduced costs [11]. The Arctic route has gradually emerged as a pivotal conduit, garnering attention from a multitude of port and logistics enterprises. Its appeal lies in its potential to significantly reduce transit distances and durations compared to conventional routes. Furthermore, the route holds promise for cost-efficient transportation and diminished emission output. Its unique navigational trajectory also offers the added advantage of circumventing piracy and security concerns [12,13].

The comprehensive utilization of the Arctic route has the potential to bestow significant strategic and economic advantages. With China’s growing presence in the global maritime industry, more studies have underscored the significance of the Arctic routes for China’s shipping industry and its potential global impact. Notably, Nong Hong’s analysis delves into the geopolitical, legal, and environmental implications of the Arctic route’s opening, offering a comprehensive understanding of its broader international context [14]. In the context of pivotal ports like Shanghai, the impact of the opening of the Arctic route can be approached from two primary perspectives. Firstly, the Arctic route could contribute to Shanghai’s port by facilitating augmented cargo volume and expanded transportation opportunities, consequently fostering an increase in cargo throughput. Secondly, the successful establishment of the Arctic route necessitates intensified cross-border cooperation and geopolitical alignment to ensure its safety and reliability, further fostering Shanghai’s progressive engagement in international economic connectivity [15,16].

However, the endorsement and utilization of the Arctic route are accompanied by an array of challenges and complexities spanning political, economic, and environmental spheres. The intricacies of the Arctic region’s natural environment, marked by unpredictability and complexity, coupled with factors like fluctuating ice conditions and climate variations, impose elevated demands on the route’s security and dependability. In addition, proactive measures by wharf facilities and shipping companies are essential to standardize transportation processes and elevate capacities for cargo tracking, monitoring, and management [17].

Notably, a categorization of China’s Arctic coastal ports has placed Shanghai Port in the first tier, accentuating the significance of studying its dynamics. Furthermore, addressing the rise of domestic ports as a challenge, improved port logistics can enhance operational efficiency and global positioning [18]. The urgency of establishing sea–rail inter-modal transport at Shanghai Port has been discussed, along with practical recommendations for optimizing its logistics [19]. Studies have demonstrated the impact of port logistics development on economic growth, as seen in the analysis of panel data from 21 cities in Guangdong Province [20]. Analyzing the challenges in transshipment development at Shanghai Port has advocated the enhancement of waterway transit systems [21]. An examination of the current state and future directions of port logistics has suggested digitization, policy support, and talent cultivation as macro-level strategies [22]. Similarly, analyses employing the SWOT analysis method have guided the development of Dalian Port [23].

Meanwhile, numerous in-depth analyses have highlighted the favorable repercussions of unlocking the Arctic route on the dynamics of global trade [24]. Of particular note is the extensive exploration of the implications of Arctic shipping routes, especially regarding the impact of reduced navigation distances on trade. Notteboom’s investigation of maritime transport chains emphasized the time sensitivity and its influence on global trade dynamics [25]. Yang et al. examined the competitiveness of the Northern Sea Route, evaluating transit times and tariffs as key factors [26]. Jansson and Shneer provided insights into the economic potential of the Northern Sea Route, shedding light on its far-reaching implications for global trade [27]. Metaxas adopted a geographical approach to assess the benefits and risks associated with maritime transport routes, specifically focusing on the northern passage [28]. Rodionova and Beliaeva emphasized the critical role played by the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic’s development, underscoring its significance for international trade [29]. Haapasaari and Kuikka conducted a comprehensive analysis of the economics of Arctic shipping, evaluating the feasibility of cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route [30]. The study by Kratz and Vold centered on the risk analysis of Arctic shipping, capturing the perspectives of marine insurance underwriters [31]. Lastly, Zhao et al. provided an in-depth assessment of the risks associated with Arctic shipping from the standpoint of maritime transportation companies [32].

The research landscape concerning the impact of the Arctic route on global trade is extensive, with various methodologies and models utilized to assess its implications. The employment of the SWOT analysis method has facilitated the projection and strategizing of the economic benefits resulting from the opening of the Arctic route [33]. Additionally, an institutional analysis approach has underscored the significant advantages China stands to gain from this route, highlighting its potential integration into the Belt and Road development framework [34]. The GTAP model has emerged as a powerful tool in revealing China’s major beneficiary status from the Arctic route, shedding light on the extent of its impact [35]. Moreover, the feasibility of the gravitational model was confirmed, specifically in the context of the Arctic route’s Northeast Passage [36]. Furthermore, the application of the gravitational model has proven instrumental in analyzing the influence of the Arctic route on China–Europe trade, providing specific measurements concerning reduced mileage and enhanced time efficiency [37]. The gravity models collectively elucidate the intricate dynamics of the Arctic route’s impact on global trade, emphasizing factors such as geographic proximity, economic scale, and trade openness [38]. Moreover, the introduction of the stochastic frontier gravity model has enabled the evaluation of shipping company efficiency across different ports, shedding light on latent factors affecting trade flow [39].

While previous research has been predominantly centered on the impact of reduced navigation distances on trade dynamics, specific operational aspects within port activities have often been overlooked. This study aims to bridge this gap by integrating Arctic route navigability with the evolution of Shanghai Port’s logistics, employing a stochastic frontier gravity model to discern the route’s influence on trade volume and assess post-pandemic implications. Our study represents an innovative approach, providing strategic insights into the evolving landscape of port logistics. By addressing the apparent lack of detailed examinations within port operations, our research introduces a novel pathway of exploration, effectively connecting Arctic navigation with the intricacies of Shanghai port logistics. Furthermore, the comprehensive analysis of the post-pandemic landscape uncovers trade pressures and sets the stage for strategic adaptations. The study culminates in a set of well-considered recommendations, offering guidance to stakeholders navigating the complexities of the contemporary global trade landscape and promoting the development of sustainable and resilient trade relationships in the post-pandemic era.

3. Development Status of the Arctic Route

Since the onset of global warming, there has been a continuous retreat of the Arctic ice cap. The Arctic route, acclaimed as the shortest passage connecting the continents of Europe and Asia with North America, holds considerable potential for development and has thus garnered substantial international attention. Nevertheless, over the past three years marked by the rampant spread of the novel coronavirus, the progress of the global trade, supply chain, and logistics sectors has encountered varying degrees of impediment, with certain industries even experiencing regression.

This period of time has witnessed significant shifts in the global trade and logistics landscape, consequently presenting formidable challenges to the advancement of the Arctic route. In the post-pandemic era, the evolution of the worldwide maritime industry must not only keep pace with the contemporary era but also strive to regain the momentum observed prior to the pandemic. It is imperative to enhance the resilience of ports, enabling them to more effectively fulfill their role in bolstering the economy and facilitating trade. This necessitates that nations collectively formulate maritime plans of heightened stability and quality, with the maritime value of the Arctic route poised to be prominently showcased within this context.

3.1. Current and Projected Trajectories of the Arctic Shipping Route

Navigating the Arctic holds immense promise, not only for reshaping global trade but also for redefining maritime connectivity and sustainable logistics practices. As ice cover continues to diminish, new routes such as the Central Arctic Ocean Route (CAO) are expected to emerge, presenting novel opportunities for international trade and maritime transport. Amidst these transformations, understanding the maritime advantages of the Arctic shipping route is crucial for comprehending its full potential in enhancing global trade and sustainability.

The Arctic shipping route, serves as a crucial maritime conduit, linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Branching into the “Northern Sea Route (NSR)” along the Russian northern shoreline and the “Northeast Passage (NEP)” extending eastward through the Barents Sea, Kara Sea, and Chukchi Sea, it represents a key pathway for international trade. Additionally, the “Northwest Passage (NWP)” weaving through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago provides an alternate route, fostering global maritime connectivity. Anticipated changes to the NWP by 2050, as proposed by researchers [40], are set to revolutionize navigation dynamics, potentially leading to the emergence of the Central Arctic Ocean Route (CAO), creating a pioneering pathway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

As sea ice continues to recede, the potential for increased traffic and trade through these routes becomes more apparent, suggesting a promising future for Arctic navigation and logistics. Qing et al. (2021) highlights the diminishing Arctic Sea ice from 2013 to 2019, a consequence of the warming climate, contributing to an increase in Arctic route usage. This growth is closely associated with a 25% rise in Arctic vessels between 2013 and 2019, indicating the growing importance and accessibility of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) [41].

The historical context of the Arctic route dates back to the 18th century, with the Northeast Passage being managed by the Soviet Union’s Northern Sea Route Administration. It was not until 2019 that the commercial use of the Northeast Passage commenced, marked by a German shipping company’s arrival at Rotterdam Port. In comparison to the Northwest Passage, the Northeast Passage traverses the Red Army, De Long, and Vilkitsky Straits. Research by Jin-Lei Chen et al. demonstrated the commercial value of Arctic shipping lanes by showing that record shrinkage of sea ice due to warming temperatures increased the likelihood of opening of Arctic shipping lanes, and further predicted the likelihood of passage into the Northwest Passage [42]. Considering the Northwest Passage, Borgerson notes that the Northwest Passage reduces the distance from Seattle to Rotterdam by 2000 miles, or 25 percent, compared to the Panama Canal route [43]. While the commercialization of the Northwest Passage began in 2008, its narrower passages and hazardous terrain have limited its frequency of use and commercial viability when compared to the Northeast Passage. Despite these hurdles, the prospects for enhanced global connectivity and trade via the Arctic route remain promising.

Above all, the historical evolution and contemporary dynamics of the Arctic shipping route underscore its pivotal role in shaping global maritime trade. The ongoing reduction in Arctic Sea ice has paved the way for expanded navigation, offering potential economic and environmental benefits. Recognizing the inherent opportunities and challenges associated with this evolving maritime landscape, the subsequent analysis delves into the salient maritime advantages of the Arctic shipping route, shedding light on its transformative influence on global logistics and trade.

3.2. Salient Maritime Advantages of the Arctic Shipping Route

To a certain extent, the Arctic shipping route has the potential to substitute for the conventional Europe–Asia and Asia–America routes that traverse the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal, respectively. Thus, comparing the Arctic route with these traditional routes in terms of navigational distance and time can substantiate the Arctic route’s significant global standing. For this purpose, exemplary ports, namely, China’s Shanghai Port, Europe’s Rotterdam Port, and the United States New York Port, were selected. Navigational distance and time were employed as reference indicators (data source: statistical records available on the Marine traffic website (www.marinetraffic.com,. accessed on 16 October 2023) and the publication “Arctic Navigation Guide”). The consolidated findings are presented in

Table 1. Comparison of navigation distance and time among Central Arctic Ocean Route, Arctic shipping route, and conventional routes (2050).

Routes	Traditional Route		Arctic Shipping Route		Central Arctic Ocean Route (2050)
	Nautical Miles	Nautical Days	Nautical Miles	Nautical Days	Nautical Miles	Nautical Days
Shanghai—Rotterdam	10,469	31.2	7906	24.6	7190	21.9
Shanghai—New York	10,512	31.3	8600	29.7	N/A	N/A

N/A: data currently not available for calculation.

, with data mainly adapted from Lee et al. (2019) [44].

According to the research conducted by [44], the successful establishment of the Arctic shipping route connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans is projected to reduce the China–Europe route by at least 21% to 31%, and the China–US West Coast route by at least 12% to 20%. From Table 1, it is evident that opting for the Arctic shipping route results in a reduction of 1912 to 2563 nautical miles and saves 1.6 to 6.6 days compared to traditional routes. Taking the Shanghai–Rotterdam route as an example for the Central Arctic Ocean Route in 2050, it is observed that this alternative reduces the nautical miles by 3279 and decreases 9.3 days off the transit time. It is imperative to consider factors like seasonal ice cover, vessel specifications, and traffic density while interpreting these projected figures. Therefore, these forecasted results are indicative and should be validated with actual operational data once the route becomes operational.

Existing predictive data strongly indicate that the advent of the Arctic shipping route has led to a substantial reduction in shipping costs, decreased transit times, and shared the burden of transportation from the Suez and Panama Canals. It is poised to become a pivotal trade conduit between Asia and Europe, as well as between Asia and the Americas.

3.3. Global Pandemic Impacts

The unfolding of this route has been significantly shaped by the circumstances of the pre- and post-COVID-19 eras. This segment aims to comprehensively analyze this evolution, delving into its latent ramifications on global trade and shipping, with a specific emphasis on the post-pandemic context.

Before the pandemic’s outbreak, the trajectory of global trade and shipping showcased a steady upward trajectory, compelling a growing requirement for swift and efficient logistical networks. The Arctic shipping route, owing to its inherent advantages of convenience and the ability to truncate voyage durations, garnered profound attention and extensive exploration within the maritime sphere. Countries proactively invested in bolstering the Arctic shipping route’s infrastructure and development, all geared towards gaining a competitive edge in the global trade arena.

The global ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic have been profound, prompting a comprehensive reassessment of traditional operational paradigms across multiple sectors. In the transportation and logistics sphere, the pandemic instigated disruptive forces that rippled throughout the global supply chain, leading to the closure of facilities, interruptions in the supply chain, and the widespread adoption of remote operations. Several studies, as highlighted in Section 2, have extensively documented the multifaceted impacts of the pandemic on various dimensions of supply chain management and social behavior.

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the global shipping domain, resulting in substantial travel constraints, disruptions in terrestrial transportation, and closures of manufacturing facilities. This disruption led to a notable contraction in trade volumes and shipping demands, exacerbating the broader economic downturn and influencing investment decisions and strategic plans associated with the Arctic shipping route. Consequently, numerous nations and businesses were compelled to temporarily suspend, or delay projects linked to the route due to prevalent economic uncertainties and fiscal limitations. Several studies, e.g., Notteboom and Pallis [45], Rizos and Vasileiou [46], Ducruet [47], and Lee [48], have underscored the substantial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global shipping domain. These analyses highlighted the widespread uncertainties, technical intricacies, and operational hurdles faced by the industry, shedding light on the multifaceted implications of COVID-19 on maritime transport. Moreover, these studies offered comprehensive insights into the industry’s adaptive responses and strategic realignments to navigate the complexities of the pandemic, ultimately striving to establish a resilient equilibrium in the ever-evolving global shipping landscape.

With the progress of vaccination campaigns and the gradual stabilization of the pandemic’s impact, the global economy has embarked on a trajectory of recuperation. This resurgence has provided fresh life to trade and shipping demands. This resurgence proffers certain openings for the development of the Arctic shipping route. Many nations and enterprises have re-calibrated and reassessed their strategic approaches pertaining to the route, subsequently reviving pertinent projects. Notably, industries heavily reliant on intricate global supply chains have recognized the pivotal significance of diversification and innovative trade conduits. In this context, the Arctic shipping route emerges as a promising prospect.

Notably, the pandemic-induced crisis has engendered a heightened awareness of environmental sustainability. Consequently, the development and exploitation of the Arctic shipping route should not only be grounded in economic gains but should also be imbued with a commitment to environmental conservation and ecological equilibrium. In the post-pandemic epoch, the development of the Arctic route should pivot to sustainability and eco-friendliness, thereby mitigating the repercussions on the Arctic environment throughout the developmental phase.

In summary, the COVID-19 pandemic has undeniably left its imprint, necessitating recalibrations in the trajectory of the Arctic shipping route’s progression. Nevertheless, in the wake of the global economic resurgence and the burgeoning desire for diversified supply chains, the Arctic shipping route persists as a beacon of potential transformation within the realm of trade conduits. In the era following the pandemic, striking a harmonious equilibrium between economic advancement and sustainability stands as the quintessential conduit to secure enduring mutual gains.

3.4. China’s Involvement in Arctic Route Participation

Amidst the post-pandemic landscape, China has embarked on an active trajectory in the advancement of the Arctic shipping route, strategically navigating avenues to accrue competitive supremacy within the global trade domain. This course of action illuminates the multifaceted impact of Arctic navigation on the burgeoning sphere of port logistics in Shanghai.

Primarily, as an esteemed observer state within the Arctic Council and a ratified participant in key international pacts such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Svalbard Treaty, China has steadfastly fortified its collaborative bonds with Arctic nations, a concerted effort aimed at fostering collective progress and the judicious utilization of the Arctic shipping route. By solidifying accords with pivotal Arctic stakeholders, including Russia and Iceland, China has fostered a framework of cooperation in Arctic affairs, laying a robust foundation underpinning the steady maturation of the Arctic shipping route. Concomitantly, China’s energetic involvement extends to the domain of infrastructure advancement and investment pertinent to the Arctic shipping route. This strategic move is evidenced by China’s investments in the development of critical port facilities, docks, and related infrastructure in Arctic nations such as Norway and Finland. The fruition of these initiatives augments navigational throughput and operational efficiency along the Arctic shipping route, culminating in a plausible acceleration of the route’s evolution and a salutary influence on port logistics in Shanghai. Significantly, China’s persistent endeavors encompass the realm of scientific inquiry and technological innovation germane to the Arctic shipping route. Eminent Chinese research institutions and enterprises are actively participating in diverse ventures, spanning Arctic scientific expeditions and meteorological prognostications. The confluence of these efforts substantiates a robust scientific bedrock underpinning the safety and feasibility of navigation along the Arctic corridor, thereby effectuating risk amelioration, and heightening the competitive prowess of port logistics in Shanghai within the context of the Arctic shipping route. A palpable testament to these endeavors is found in China’s research vessel “Xuelong,” that adeptly navigated the Northeast, Northwest, and Central Arctic passages in 2012 and 2017, yielding comprehensive insights across these routes. Notably, a watershed moment was achieved in 2013 as China accomplished its maiden commercial transit via the Arctic shipping route. The vessel “Yong Sheng,” under the auspices of China Ocean Shipping Company, triumphantly reached Rotterdam by traversing the Northeast Passage. This heralded success was subsequently bolstered by diligent years of pilot navigation and culminated in the publication of China’s inaugural Arctic white paper, titled “China’s Arctic Policy,” in 2018. This seminal document delineates China’s stance and outlook vis à vis the Arctic, with the proposed “Ice Silk Road” strategy serving as a pivotal conduit for China’s interaction with the Arctic shipping route. Converging the Ice Silk Road with the Belt and Road Initiative, this strategic synthesis accentuates a global collaborative framework along the Arctic shipping route, harmonizing into the conceptual entity of the “Ice Silk Road”.

Nonetheless, China’s proactive engagement with the Arctic shipping route encounters attendant challenges. On one hand, surmounting hurdles intrinsic to the frigid climatic milieu and intricacies of technical prowess, such as channel clearance, becomes imperative in the route’s development. On the other hand, the intensification of international competition necessitates China’s adeptness in fortifying its port logistics capabilities while seamlessly interlinking within the tapestry of the global supply chain network.

In summation, China’s proactive overtures towards nurturing the Arctic shipping route in the post-pandemic milieu, through intricate collaborations, infrastructure capitalization, scientific inquiry, and technological innovation, substantiates a concerted pursuit of competitive ascendancy in the global trade domain. This pursuit reverberates beyond national frontiers, harboring the potential to intricately influence the ascendancy of port logistics in Shanghai. However, to undergird the sustained evolution of the Arctic shipping route and the efficacious incorporation of Shanghai’s port logistics, China must adroitly navigate challenges that encompass technological advancements and international competitive dynamics.

4. Current State and Challenges of Shanghai Port’s Logistics Development

Amidst the continuous growth of the global economy and the ever-expanding demands of logistics, the significance of port logistics has surged to the forefront. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the landscape of global trade and logistics has undergone a profound transformation, while the navigational prospects of the Arctic shipping route have garnered intense scrutiny. Against this backdrop, an exploration of the current status and challenges facing the development of port logistics at the Shanghai Port assumes paramount importance.

The development of port logistics at the Shanghai Port confronts both fresh opportunities and novel challenges. The emergence of the Arctic shipping route as a nascent logistic pathway holds the potential to address longstanding issues in traditional maritime routes, such as exorbitant transportation costs and vulnerabilities within supply chains. This route promises to usher in a paradigm shift in the landscape of port logistics at the Shanghai Port. This section undertakes a comprehensive examination of the present state and intricacies of port logistics development at the Shanghai Port in the context of the post-pandemic era, characterized by the advent of the Arctic shipping route.

4.1. Rationale for the Selection of Shanghai Port

The opening of the Arctic shipping route presents a dual prospect of development and challenge for the Shanghai Port. Given its strategic geographical location and robust economic prowess, the port stands poised to leverage the newfound accessibility afforded by the Arctic route to unlock a spectrum of developmental opportunities. However, a prudent assessment of the potential ramifications of this route on port operations and competitiveness becomes imperative. This entails the formulation of effective strategies to ensure sustainable upgrades of the port while concurrently bolstering its international competitive edge.

Being one of China’s foremost comprehensive ports, Shanghai Port has long played a pivotal role in global trade dynamics. Its enviable geographical positioning, state-of-the-art infrastructure, and high-efficiency service standards have collectively elevated it to a vital nexus of international commerce. The outbreak of the pandemic and the ensuing turbulence in the global supply chain temporarily impacted the port’s logistical activities. Despite this, Shanghai Port has managed to maintain a relatively stable trajectory of growth, a testament to its magnitude and capabilities.

In particular, Shanghai Port boasts several pivotal attributes. As the world’s largest container port, it is situated at the heart of China’s mainland coastline, strategically positioned at the confluence of the Yangtze River and the sea. This geographical advantage is fortified by a favorable natural environment. Moreover, the port serves as the economic hinterland for the Yangtze River Delta region, encompassing Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. This region encompasses substantial population densities, colossal cargo demands, a comprehensive transportation network, and a pool of professionals spanning diverse industries, culminating in a robust economic foundation and a thriving cultural milieu.

Furthermore, Shanghai’s trajectory is marked by significant developmental potential and far-reaching prospects. From endeavors to establish an international maritime hub to the creation of free trade zones, every initiative resonates with resolute state backing. Observing the bar graphs and growth rates illustrating the annual cargo and container throughput variations in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the consistent incremental trends underscore the imperative for an enhanced logistics framework. These strategic endeavors collectively underpin Shanghai Port’s unrivaled status as the world’s largest port.

In summary, the unfolding Arctic shipping route opens up a realm of potential for Shanghai Port. Yet, as opportunities beckon, the port must exercise prudence in navigating the ensuing challenges, poised to harmonize its legacy of excellence with the promises of the evolving global trade landscape.

4.2. Current State of Shanghai Port’s Port Logistics Development

Amidst increasing global trade, port transformation to boost competitiveness remains a focal point. Port logistics, a determinant of competitiveness, encompasses comprehensive service systems. Leveraging industrial support and advanced technology, port logistics optimizes resource allocation, enhances inland market reach, and accentuates cargo handling functions. Port logistics constitutes an integrated transportation system spanning multiple stages, managed by diverse enterprises.

Drawing from the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook, Shanghai Port has exhibited a rapid and relentless growth trajectory since its inception, consistently setting new records and benchmarks. In 2009, it surged to global prominence as the foremost port in terms of throughput (source: Shanghai Statistical Bureau https://tjj.sh.gov.cn/tjnj/20230206/804acea250d44d2187f2e37d2e5d36ba.html, accessed on 16 October 2023). Subsequently, in 2010, it further fortified its position by securing the status of the world’s foremost container port, marking the beginning of over a decade of continuous expansion. However, since 2010, the pace of cargo throughput growth has been gradually moderated, with a noticeable decline observed in 2014.

The information outlined in

Table 2. Cargo and container throughput of Shanghai Port (2018–2019 and 2020–2021).

	2021	2020	YoY Growth	2019	2018	YoY Growth
Cargo Total/tons	776,350,000	716,700,000	8.32%	720,310,000	730,480,000	−1.39%
In terms of inbound and outbound distribution: Inbound	457,740,000	428,100,000	6.92%	415,000,000	419,310,000	−1.03%
Among them: Foreign trade	196,020,000	193,210,000	1.45%	199,160,000	204,860,000	−2.78%
In terms of inbound and outbound distribution: Outbound	318,610,000	288,600,000	10.40%	305,310,000	311,170,000	−1.88%
Among them: Foreign trade	218,870,000	195,960,000	11.69%	197,430,000	197,200,000	0.12%
By domestic and foreign trade: Domestic trade	36,146,000	32,753,000	10.36%	32,372,000	32,842,000	−1.43%
By domestic and foreign trade: Foreign trade	41,489,000	38,900,000	6.61%	39,659,000	40,206,000	−1.36%
Containers Total/TEU	47,033,000	43,503,000	8.11%	43,303,000	42,010,000	3.08%
Inbound	23,250,000	21,467,000	8.31%	21,491,000	20,646,000	4.09%
Outbound	23,783,000	22,037,000	7.92%	21,811,000	21,364,000	2.09%

provides a comprehensive overview of the cargo and container throughput of Shanghai Port in the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, offering insights into the evolving dynamics within the port’s logistical landscape. The data demonstrate a significant decrease in cargo throughput in 2019, signaling shifting trends within the operational context of the port. In contrast, the narrative for container throughput paints a more optimistic picture, highlighting consistent and steady growth year after year. Throughput serves as a vital metric, directly reflecting the port’s capacity to facilitate the movement of goods and underlining the mounting freight pressures faced by Shanghai Port’s logistics operations.

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 had a profound impact on Shanghai Port’s cargo and container throughputs, leading to varying degrees of turbulence. In 2020, the outbreak of the pandemic, coupled with global trade disruptions, contributed to a slight reduction in Shanghai Port’s cargo throughput, decreasing from 720,310,000 tons in 2019 to 716,700,000 tons, representing a decline of 1.39%. Notably, foreign trade experienced a more pronounced impact, with cargo throughput diminishing by 2.78% compared to the preceding year.

Conversely, the account for 2021 depicted a notably different narrative, with the gradual containment of the pandemic leading to a rapid recovery in Shanghai Port’s cargo throughput. The total cargo throughput for the year surged to 776,350,000 tons, marking a substantial increase of 8.32% compared to the previous year, surpassing the levels achieved in 2019. Particularly, the domain of foreign trade showcased remarkable resilience, with cargo throughput soaring by 11.69%, resulting in a total of 218,870,000 tons and signifying an unmistakable resurgence.

In alignment with this trajectory, Shanghai Port’s aggregate container throughput rose from 43,503,000 TEU in 2020 to a robust 47,033,000 TEU in 2021, reflecting an 8.11% year-on-year increase. These figures underscore Shanghai Port’s proactive recovery efforts during the pandemic, highlighting its adaptability and formidable resurgence. This resurgence can be attributed, in part, to the gradual recovery of global trade dynamics and Shanghai Port’s adept navigation in the face of pandemic-induced challenges.

Analyzing the inbound and outbound distribution data at Shanghai Port provides crucial insights into its evolving trade landscape and the dynamics of its logistics operations. Notably, the inbound cargo demonstrated consistent growth, reaching 457,740,000 tons in 2021, signifying the port’s pivotal role as a key entry point for goods. However, the relatively modest growth rate of foreign trade within the inbound category, at 1.45%, suggests a stable yet cautious trend in international trade activities. In contrast, the robust growth of outbound cargo by 10.40% in 2021, accompanied by a substantial 11.69% surge in foreign trade within this category, highlights the port’s significant role as a vital hub for international trade exchanges and commerce.

Furthermore, the breakdown analysis of domestic and foreign trade reveals the delicate equilibrium between local and global trade dynamics. The notable 10.36% increase in domestic trade underscores the robust domestic trade landscape, underscoring Shanghai Port’s pivotal role in bolstering the regional economy. Conversely, the steady 6.61% growth in foreign trade within this category accentuates the consistent expansion of international trade activities, highlighting the port’s persistent endeavors to fortify its global trade networks.

The detailed examination of inbound and outbound distribution, as well as the breakdown between domestic and foreign trade, illuminates Shanghai Port’s critical role in fostering sustainable and resilient trade relationships. As a vital nexus for both regional and global trade, Shanghai Port’s strategic positioning and operational prowess play a crucial role in propelling the sustainable development of port logistics and international trade, especially in the post-pandemic era.

Concerning the transport distribution network, Shanghai Port, positioned at the Yangtze River’s entry into the sea, boasts superior geographical advantages. As depicted in

Table 3. Transport distribution network of Shanghai Port.

Mode	Conditions
Rail	Beijing–Shanghai, Hangzhou–Shanghai, and Nanjing–Shanghai mainlines; dedicated railway lines connecting Hangzhou–Shanghai and Nanjing–Shanghai mainlines; connections to Jingpu Line, covering northern and southern regions of China
Air	Flight count: Domestic and international flights at Shanghai Hongqiao and Pudong International Airports; a flight count of over 2000 flights per month; a flight count of over 500 international flights per month
Road	Expressways including Shanghai–Nanjing, Shanghai–Hangzhou, Shanghai–Qingpu, Shanghai–Zhangjiang, and Shanghai–Jiading highways; national routes 204, 312, 318, and 320
Water	Yangtze River and Grand Canal; over 200 inland waterways and 8 interprovincial waterways

, the port’s transport network includes an extensive rail system comprising mainlines connecting key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Nanjing, as well as dedicated lines ensuring an efficient connectivity within and across these cities. Additionally, the air transport system, facilitated by Shanghai Hongqiao and Pudong International Airports, plays a pivotal role with its comprehensive flight count, encompassing both domestic and international flights. Moreover, the road infrastructure, consisting of expressways and national routes, acts as a vital link, ensuring seamless connectivity and accessibility for goods and services. Leveraging its strategic location along the Yangtze River and Grand Canal, Shanghai Port’s water transportation system, supported by numerous inland and interprovincial waterways, further solidifies its position as a pivotal node in the global logistics network.

4.3. Challenges in Shanghai Port’s Port Logistics

Shanghai Port predominantly relies on conventional maritime routes for cargo transportation, characterized by relatively high costs and a comparatively lower efficiency. This constraint curtails the development of port logistics in Shanghai. Moreover, during the pandemic, international logistics underwent severe disruptions, escalating the risk of supply chain ruptures. This amplified the vulnerability and inadequacy of Shanghai Port’s port logistics development.

Geographical disadvantages have rendered Shanghai Port geographically distant from international trade hubs. The surrounding region grapples with severe traffic congestion, hampering logistical efficiency.

According to data from the China Ports Yearbook (

Table 4. Basic statistics of coastal berths at Shanghai Port (2019 and 2021).

Port Features	2020	2021	YoY/%	2018	2019	YoY/%
Port Units	201	202	0.5	210	201	−4.3
Port Length	105.81 km	109.15 km	3.2	107.23 km	107.04 km	−0.2
Internal: Length for Production Use	75.82 km	76.48 km	0.9	75.41 km	75.82 km	0.5
Port Berths	1062	1075	1.2	1097	1075	−2.0
Internal: Berths for Container Handling	55	59	7.3	51	55	7.8
Berths for Production Use	560	567	1.3	573	560	−2.3
Internal: Ten Thousand Ton Class	185	185	0	181	185	2.2
Cargo Throughput Capacity (billion tons)	5.85	5.87	0.3	5.499	5.5347	0.6
Container Throughput Capacity (thousand TEU)	2627	2627	0	2627	2627	0

), Shanghai Port boasts a significant advantage in terms of berth numbers, with over 185 berths for vessels exceeding ten thousand tons, far surpassing other domestic ports. However, Shanghai Port’s evident drawback lies in its inadequate water depth, approximately 12.5 m. In contrast, Ningbo–Zhoushan Port boasts an average depth of around 20 m, and Guangzhou Port’s average depth measures about 17 m, both surpassing Shanghai Port. As a result, Shanghai Port cannot fully accommodate large vessels, reducing demand for its logistical services. Furthermore, the investment in Yangshan Deepwater Port, with depths of up to 17 m, is constrained by its sole connection to the inland through the Yangtze River Delta Bridge. These limitations collectively impact the level of port logistics at Shanghai Port.

Modern port logistics entail complex operations, demanding high levels of proficiency from employees and management due to the intricacies and multifaceted processes involved. Proficient logistics, warehousing, and transportation knowledge are required from multidisciplinary professionals to navigate the transformation and upgradation of port logistics. However, existing knowledge and technical skills within enterprises are typically limited to past practices and internal operations. Consequently, the entire industry lacks information sharing and unified talent development, impeding overall innovation and progress.

The opening of the Arctic shipping route influences not only Shanghai Port but also other ports along the route, presenting both opportunities and challenges. One such example is Ningbo–Zhoushan Port, situated geographically proximate to Shanghai Port, ranking as the world’s top port in terms of cargo throughput. Benefiting from superior geographical and geological conditions, as well as notably superior water depth conditions in the navigation area, Ningbo–Zhoushan Port boasts untapped deep-water resources, offering vast prospects for development. Simultaneously, the ongoing development of Zhoushan New Area adds pressure on Shanghai Port. Moreover, contemporary port competition has evolved beyond traditional sourcing rivalry, shifting towards competition in port logistics and services. Ports like Shenzhen and Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta have actively engaged in trade and cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, showcasing formidable competitive capabilities. To consolidate its international position, Shanghai Port must optimize resource allocation and enhance supporting services and infrastructure, necessitating the refinement of its port logistics system, thereby elevating logistics capabilities and efficiency.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced the transportation and logistics landscape, prompting the need for enhanced connectivity and resilient supply chains. As global trade dynamics continue to adapt to the post-pandemic era, the role of Shanghai Port as a key transport hub is crucial in ensuring the smooth flow of goods and services both domestically and internationally. Adaptability and robust infrastructure will be pivotal in navigating the evolving demands of the global logistics industry.

In response to these challenges, Shanghai Port has navigated a complex landscape, emphasizing adaptability, resilience, and sustainability in its logistical operations. The port’s strategic focus on constructing an environmentally friendly infrastructure aligns with the growing emphasis on sustainable development in the maritime industry. Additionally, the port has prioritized the integration of supply chain networks and the adoption of collaborative models to enhance its responsiveness to potential disruptions and ensure a seamless flow of goods.

Looking ahead, the collaboration with both domestic and international ports stands as a key strategy for Shanghai Port to strengthen its logistical capabilities and maintain its competitive edge in the global market. By investing in green technologies and sustainable practices, Shanghai Port can establish itself as a leader in environmentally conscious port logistics, effectively addressing the growing concerns regarding environmental impact and sustainability in the maritime sector.

4.4. Prospective Effects of the Arctic Shipping Route on Shanghai Port’s Logistics Landscape

The unfolding prospects of the Arctic shipping route are poised to bring forth novel ramifications and opportunities for the evolution of Shanghai Port’s logistics ecosystem. These developments, on the one hand, promise to inaugurate a more streamlined trade conduit, potentially elevating the port’s logistical allure. Meanwhile, capitalizing on its strategic geographical positioning, Shanghai Port can actively partake in the strategic orchestration and cooperative ventures linked with the Arctic route, thereby further solidifying its stature within the global logistics matrix.

In contrast to conventional maritime routes, the accessibility of the Arctic shipping route holds the potential to abbreviate cargo transit times and distances. This, in turn, would engender reduced transportation costs, thus enhancing the overall efficiency of port logistics operations. Furthermore, such enhancements are projected to fortify linkages and interchanges between Shanghai Port and key global trading hubs.

Amid the pandemic’s shadow, traditional maritime routes confront imminent supply chain disruptions. In this context, the Arctic shipping route emerges as a promising avenue for safer and more stable cargo transportation, alleviating pressures on conventional maritime pathways and mitigating supply chain vulnerabilities. As a consequence, the security and reliability of Shanghai Port’s logistics infrastructure are poised to advance. The Arctic route, acting as an ancillary avenue, could potentially curtail Shanghai Port’s overreliance on conventional maritime routes. However, navigating the Arctic route does entail distinct challenges and concerns. Navigational intricacies, extreme climatic variables, and incomplete legal frameworks mandate exhaustive research and evaluation ahead of operational deployment, ensuring the integrity and stability of port logistics operations.

In the post-pandemic epoch, Shanghai Port assumes a dual role of opportunities and challenges as a pivotal node within the global trade ecosystem. The burgeoning potential presented by the Arctic shipping route injects fresh momentum into the equation. This entails a proactive approach of addressing pre-existing challenges and a concerted effort to bolster core competitiveness, ultimately charting a course toward sustainability. Throughout this transformative journey, Shanghai Port’s pivotal role remains steadfast, serving as a conduit for catalyzing the growth of global trade and logistics.

5. Variable Selection and Modeling

5.1. Identification Strategies: Trade Volume and Port Logistics Dialectics

Port logistics, as a comprehensive concept encompassing transportation, sorting, packaging, and other facets, hinges on the essential presence of goods. Thus, an increase in trade volume signifies a heightened external demand for port logistics services. Simultaneously, the foundational infrastructure of a port represents its supply capacity for logistics services. Consequently, any surge in trade volume invariably reverberates across port logistics.

Scholars such as Okorie et al. [49] have briefly analyzed the factors influencing port logistics competitiveness. Their findings suggest that transportation services wield the most substantial impact on port logistics competitiveness, followed by value-added services like warehousing. Given that the core of transportation services revolves around receiving, conveying, and delivering goods, an increase in trade volume directly affects transportation services, consequently influencing port logistics. Similarly, warehousing services revolve around the storage of goods, making an increase in trade volume directly impact the demand for warehousing services, thus indirectly affecting port logistics competitiveness and overall port stature. Clearly, trade volume, synonymous with the quantity of goods, holds considerable influence over port logistics.

Notteboom and Rodrigue [50] conducted a thorough analysis of global trade volume and inter-port cargo relationships, revealing the roles and statuses of various ports within the global maritime network. Their study examined past phases of port development and introduced a novel stage of port regionalization. In a different context, Ng and Yip [51] employed trade volume data and market share data within a port region to investigate the competitive dynamics of Pearl River Delta ports. Their analysis encompassed cargo flow patterns, market share fluctuations, and the position and role of ports within trading routes. Similarly, Vaze and Tripathy [52] compared the efficiency differences between Indian ports and other Asian counterparts, utilizing a global trade volume analysis and inter-port cargo relationship study. Their research explored diverse factors impacting port logistics efficiency.

These scholars converge on trade volume as a pivotal metric for evaluating port logistics conditions and competitiveness. Their methodologies, perspectives, and conclusions hold significance in understanding port logistics, discerning developmental directions, and formulating strategic approaches. Trade volume, as a pivotal metric of port trade activities, not only mirrors the economic magnitude of ports but also signifies the intensity of trade operations, thereby serving as a fundamental barometer for evaluating port operations and performance. Furthermore, the relationship between trade volume and port logistics is symbiotic and dynamic. The expansion of trade volume engenders heightened demands for efficient freight transportation, fostering the continual development and enhancement of port logistics infrastructure and service capabilities, consequently bolstering overall port logistics efficiency and efficacy.

Access to trade volume data is notably convenient and practical. These data, particularly official trade statistics, can be readily acquired and analyzed through diverse channels, facilitating comprehensive and temporal analyses that uncover intricate trends in the evolutionary trajectory of port logistics.

In conclusion, while trade volume does not encompass the entirety of port logistics operations, it remains a pivotal indicator for gauging port economy and trade activities. Its correlation with port logistics efficiency is undeniable. Thus, in dissecting port logistics, trade volume remains a fundamental and reliable metric.

Moreover, an increase in trade volume brings more business opportunities to various enterprises within the port, accompanied by substantial economic benefits. Supported by the policies of free trade zones, this appeal attracts diverse types of businesses to Shanghai’s port, fostering enterprise clusters. This clustering effect potentially elevates the construction level of Shanghai’s port infrastructure, significantly enhancing the efficiency of processes such as sorting, transportation, loading, and packaging. As enterprise costs decrease, the magnetism of Shanghai’s port could attract goods from peripheral ports, setting in motion a virtuous cycle of increased trade volume and heightened port logistics efficiency. Thus, the indissoluble relationship between trade volume and port logistics is evident: the influence of trade volume directly molds port logistics, while the advancement and perfection of port logistics reciprocally propel continual growth in trade volume.

5.2. Modelling

5.2.1. Gravity Model

In this study, we quantitatively analyze the substantive impact of the shortened maritime distances resulting from the opening of the Arctic route on bilateral trade volume using the gravity model of trade. The gravity model finds extensive application in understanding economic relationships between distance and trade volume. For instance, Mingyue and Maishow (2014) [37] employed the gravity model to assess the effects of the Arctic route’s opening on trade volume between China and Europe, thereby highlighting the applicability of the gravity model to our current investigation.

Originating from the law of universal gravitation in the field of physics, the gravity model stipulates a positive correlation between the gravitational force of two objects and their mass, juxtaposed with a negative correlation with the distance between them. This model transitioned into the domain of international trade in the early 1950s.

The gravity model, built on the foundation of the gravity equation, gauges trade flow based on geographic distance and GDP. Typically, the method of least squares is employed to estimate the model’s parameters. A distinctive feature of the gravity model is that its estimated elasticities are logarithmic, allowing for a more intuitive interpretation. In this study, we select the total imports and exports of Shanghai Port with the sample country as the dependent variable. The independent variables include the GDP of the Shanghai Customs District, the GDP of the sample country, and the maritime distance between the Shanghai Port and the port of the sample country. To ensure data objectivity and fairness and to mitigate significant errors, the fixed formula for the gravity model assumes a nonlinear form. To facilitate computations and draw conclusions, we transform the formula by calculating logarithms.

$$\mathrm{l}\mathrm{n}\left({\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}\right)={\mathsf{\beta }}_1+{\mathsf{\beta }}_2\mathrm{l}\mathrm{n}\left({\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}\right)+{\mathsf{\beta }}_3\mathrm{l}\mathrm{n}\left({\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}\right)+{\mathsf{\beta }}_4\mathrm{l}\mathrm{n}\left({\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}\right)+\mathsf{\epsilon }$$

(1)

In Equation (1), i represents Shanghai Port, and j is the sample country. ${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$ is the trade volume between Shanghai Port and the sample country, and ${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$ represents the GDP of Shanghai and the sample country, while ${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$ signifies the maritime distance between Shanghai Port and the sample port. The variables represent regression coefficients. The units for trade volume are in billion USD, and maritime distance is measured in nautical miles. $\mathsf{\epsilon }$ denotes the error term.

The gravity model is adept at measuring trade flows between two regions, modeling trade flow as a function influenced by factors such as geographic distance and GDP. Its practicality, ease of implementation, and application make it an ideal tool to capture the impact of geographical locations on port logistics development. Its simplicity in interpretation provides valuable insights for policymakers and port operators alike.

The stochastic frontier gravity model has the following advantages compared to other gravity models:

• Accurate estimation of trade conditions: The stochastic frontier gravity model provides more accurate estimates of trade conditions than other gravity models. By establishing a stochastic frontier function, it can better consider the impact of geographic, cultural, and political factors on trade conditions, thereby achieving more precise results.
• Consideration of nonlinear relationships: The stochastic frontier gravity model allows for the existence of nonlinear relationships. By considering various factors and their interactions, it can better solve problems related to trade flows, currencies, and exchange rates, and has stronger adaptability and robustness.
• Consideration of stochastic factors: The stochastic frontier gravity model takes into account the stochastic factors that affect trade, such as political and social events, weather changes, etc., and thus takes a more comprehensive and accurate approach to model results.

In summary, the stochastic frontier gravity model is a relatively advanced and accurate model that can better solve problems related to trade flows, currencies, and exchange rates, and can consider the nonlinear relationships and stochastic factors among various influencing factors. The focus of this study centers on the impact of Arctic route navigation on the development of Shanghai Port logistics. As attested by a prior analysis, trade volume stands as a key factor influencing Shanghai Port logistics. Thus, we employ the gravity model to verify that the shortened distance resulting from Arctic navigation will indeed bring more trade volume to ports en route, consequently affecting port logistics.

5.2.2. Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

The stochastic frontier gravity model represents a port traffic forecasting model grounded in the principles of gravity theory. It primarily accounts for trade flow and distance between two ports (or regions). Constructed as a non-linear predictive model, it integrates the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and the gravity model (GM) principles. Combining a polynomial error cost function and a nonlinear transnational trade flow function, this model projects the relationship between domestic output and trade levels. Being a widely used model in economics, it establishes probabilities of trade activities between regions, facilitating an assessment of the impact of transnational trade on economic development. Evolving from the gravity model, it strives to explain the characteristics of international and regional trade. This model bifurcates into two components: the stochastic frontier model and the gravity model.

The stochastic frontier model gauges stochastic variables constraining trade flows, with these variables embodying unobservable factors such as technology and opportunities. Being a non-parametric model, the stochastic frontier model is often estimated using data envelopment analysis or linear programming methods.

Utilizing the stochastic frontier model in tandem with the gravity model enables the establishment of a comprehensive framework for assessing trade flow between two regions. This model allows the estimation of various factors—such as trade policies, geographical locations, and economic development levels—impacting trade flow between regions. Moreover, it furnishes policymakers and business decision-makers with valuable insights.

In comparison with traditional gravity models, the stochastic frontier gravity model presents several advantages:

• Enhanced Reflection of Port Logistics Resilience and Elasticity: In the post-pandemic era, global trade and logistics confront novel challenges, accompanied by shifts in market dynamics and spatial factors. In contrast to the conventional gravity model, the stochastic frontier gravity model is better poised to consider factors influencing port logistics resilience and elasticity. It comprehensively factors in aspects like the distinctive attributes of ports, economic environment, and policy dynamics. This precision facilitates a more accurate prediction of cargo volume and port logistics trends.
• Effective Identification and Mitigation of Outliers and Anomalous Data Impact: The stochastic frontier gravity model incorporates stochastic error terms and nonlinear variables during computation, aiding in the identification and attenuation of the influence of outliers and anomalous data on the model. Traditional gravity models often struggle with these issues, potentially neglecting biases and exceptional scenarios inherent in actual data. This deficiency could compromise the accuracy and robustness of the model results.
• Comprehensive Consideration of Distance Factors: Relative to the conventional gravity model, the stochastic frontier gravity model more holistically addresses the impact of distance factors and other variables. In the post-pandemic era, heightened interest lies in the research and application of the Arctic route. By delving deeper into the analysis of distance factors, the stochastic frontier gravity model provides more comprehensive predictive outcomes and insights for relevant policies and decisions.

In summary, the stochastic frontier gravity model emphasizes the influence of unobservable factors, such as technology and opportunities, on trade flow, thereby offering a more accurate representation of real-world scenarios. Notably, this model not only incorporates geographical factors but also accounts for the unobservable aspects—a dimension not encompassed by the traditional gravity model. Consequently, it offers a more comprehensive perspective for evaluating the impact of Arctic route navigation on the development of Shanghai Port logistics. In considering port logistics resilience, identifying and mitigating outliers and anomalies, and holistically examining distance factors, the stochastic frontier gravity model possesses distinct advantages over traditional gravity models, offering a more precise and reliable reference for interpreting and forecasting port traffic formation mechanisms, thereby aiding port and logistics decision-makers.

In this study, we consider the total imports and exports between Shanghai Port and a group of sample countries as the dependent variable of the model. The independent variables of the model include Shanghai Customs District’s GDP, the GDP of the sample countries, and the maritime distance from Shanghai Port to the ports of the sample countries. Equation of the stochastic frontier gravity model is as follows:

$${ln\left({\mathrm{T}}_{it}\right)=\alpha }_i+{\mathsf{\beta }}_{1}ln\left(GD{P}_{it}\right)+{\beta }_{2}ln\left(GD{P}_{jt}\right)+{\beta }_{3}ln\left({\mathrm{d}}_{ijt}\right)+{ϵ}_{it}$$

(2)

$$ln\left({\mathrm{T}}_{it}\right)=min\{X_{it},\widehat{X_{it}}\}+V_{it}$$

(3)

where ${\mathrm{T}}_{it}$ it is the expected trade flow between port i and port j (or vice versa) in time period t, $X_{it}$ represents the actual volume of goods transported, $X_{it}$ is the expected trade flow estimated by the model, and $V_{it}$ is the stochastic error term assumed to follow a log-normal distribution. ${\alpha }_i$ is the constant term associated with port i, representing the port’s intrinsic factors. $GD{P}_{it}$ and $GD{P}_{jt}$ denote the GDP of the region where port i is located and the GDP of the country (or region) where port j is located, respectively. These GDP terms account for the influence of economic factors on trade flows. ${\mathrm{d}}_{ijt}$ represents the maritime distance between port i and port j, capturing the impact of geographical distance on cargo volume. ${\beta }_1$, ${\beta }_2$, and ${\beta }_3$ are coefficients in the model representing the degrees to which various factors influence trade flows. ${ϵ}_{it}$ represents the disturbance term encompassing unobserved factors and random errors. By estimating and fitting the model, we can obtain specific numerical values for each coefficient, enabling the prediction and analysis of trade flows for the ports.

In the computation of this model, a logarithmic transformation was employed to convert the fixed formula into a non-linear representation. This approach was carried out using statistical software such as Stata 16, which facilitated the estimation and fitting of the model. Given the model’s intricate nature, involving numerous parameters and options, it necessitated appropriate adjustments and optimization to enhance its predictive efficacy and practicality. Throughout the model computation process, due consideration was given to data quality and model reliability, ensuring a thorough analysis and interpretation of the results. Correspondingly, policy recommendations and economic implications were put forth.

Considering the complexity of the model and its multiple dimensions, a meticulous approach was undertaken to ensure the reliability and validity of the results. Data preprocessing and parameter selection were carried out meticulously to minimize biases and maximize the model’s predictive power. Moreover, an iterative process of model adjustment and parameter fine-tuning was executed to enhance the model’s performance in predicting trade flow dynamics associated with the opening of the Arctic route.

As data integrity and model robustness play pivotal roles in yielding credible outcomes, efforts were directed towards data validation and sensitivity analysis. This encompassed identifying potential outliers, assessing the impact of influential data points, and gauging the model’s response to perturbations. Such rigorous scrutiny guarantees a well-grounded and dependable foundation for the subsequent analysis and interpretation of the results.

In conclusion, the utilization of the stochastic frontier gravity model in this study holds significant promise in shaping the discourse on the Arctic route’s impact on Shanghai Port logistics. By embracing the nuances of port logistics resilience, addressing outliers and anomalies, and embracing a comprehensive approach to distance factors, this model contributes to a robust understanding of the interwoven dynamics between trade flow and port logistics. The subsequent analyses and policy recommendations are poised to empower stakeholders to make informed choices that resonate with the complex landscape of global trade and logistics.

6. Empirical Analysis

6.1. Data and Variable Treatments

The variables incorporated in the gravity model and stochastic frontier gravity model used in this study comprise bilateral trade volume (${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$) as the dependent variable, and the maritime distance from Shanghai Port to the sampled ports (${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$) and GDP (${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$ and ${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$) for Shanghai Port and the sample countries as the independent variables. The dataset was culled from diverse sources, including the Statistical Yearbook of Shanghai, the World Bank’s World DataBank (databank.worldbank.org), and statistical data from the Marinetraffic website (www.marinetraffic.com).

The selection of sample nations is underpinned by the Shanghai Municipality’s Statistical Yearbooks from 2011 to 2022, specifically provided in Tables 8-3 and 8-4, which provide a breakdown of Shanghai’s import and export totals by country (region). Given the substantial portion of cargo passing through Shanghai Port emanating from the Yangtze River Delta region, the analysis primarily focuses on the Shanghai area’s cargo flow. Although consolidated statistical yearbooks for the Yangtze River Delta region are not readily available, the Statistical Yearbook of Shanghai for the year 2022 serves as a reasonable approximation. Based on these figures, a group of 25 countries representing the aggregate import and export volumes is identified. A thorough examination confirms that none of these 25 nations announced their exclusion from utilizing the Arctic route prior to 2021. Consequently, there is no rationale for excluding any nation from the sample, validating the inclusion of all 25 countries. However, to account for data availability, the choice is made to exclude Kuwait from the sample, given its absence in the World Bank’s GDP records for the year 2021. Balancing the criteria of data representativeness and accessibility, a selection of 24 countries listed in the Shanghai Municipality’s Import and Export Yearbooks for the years 2010 to 2021 is considered as the sample nations.

The sampled ports correspond to the top 100 global ports in the respective sample countries, as published by Lloyd’s List or the largest port in terms of annual throughput for the year 2021. These ports are also those that are most relevant to the study’s objectives. The final selection of sample countries and ports is detailed in Appendix A.

The maritime distances (${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$) from Shanghai Port to the selected sample ports are retrieved from the statistical data provided by the MarineTraffic website (www.marinetraffic.com), further enhancing the precision of the analysis. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the sample countries (${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$) spanning the years 2010 to 2021 are sourced from the World Bank’s World DataBank (databank.worldbank.org). The bilateral trade volume (${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$) and GDP figures for Shanghai Port (${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$) are extracted from the Shanghai Statistical Yearbooks. To facilitate consistent comparison, the annual average exchange rate of the Chinese CNY to the USD, as reported in the National Bureau of Statistics’ Statistical Bulletins from 2011 to 2021, is utilized for currency conversion. This enables the conversion of GDP figures into current USD per 100 million USD, ensuring uniformity and comparability across the dataset.

The descriptive statistics in

Table 5. Descriptive statistics.

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Trade volume (${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$) /billion USD	288	246.265	334.5637	3.3	1818.98
${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$ /billion USD	288	4497.395	1142.59	2646.489	6698.419
${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$ /billion USD	288	2098.74	4062.327	146.5175	25,310.7
Maritime distance (${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$) /nautical miles	288	9101.667	5504.186	535	20,590

reveal important insights. The trade volume (${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$) variable shows a moderate international trade level, with substantial variability. Shanghai’s GDP (${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$) differs significantly from the sample countries’ GDP (${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$), while the maritime distance (${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$) varies considerably among 288 observations. These results provide a key context for the subsequent regression analysis, aiding our understanding of the Arctic shipping route’s sustainability implications for Shanghai Port logistics in the pre- and current transitional phase.

6.2. Regression Analysis

In our model, to facilitate computations and draw conclusions, we transform the formula by calculating logarithms. As discussed in Section 5.2, we employed ln${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$ (trade volume) as the dependent variable. We observed the relationship between ln${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$ and ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$ (Shanghai’s Gross Domestic Product), ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$ (sample countries’ Gross Domestic Product), and ln${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$ (maritime distance). Utilizing the Stata 16 software, panel data analysis was conducted for both the pre- and post-pandemic periods, with Models 1 and 3 based on pre-pandemic data from 2010 to 2019, and Models 2 and 4 using transitional phase and post-pandemic data from 2020 to 2021.

The regression results in

Table 6. Regression results.

	1 (G Model)	2 (G Model)	3 (SFG Model)	4 (SFG Model)
	$\ln {\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$	$\ln {\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$	$\ln {\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$	$\ln {\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$
$\ln {\mathbf{G}\mathbf{D}\mathbf{P}}_{\mathbf{i}}$	0.202	0.902	−0.0689	0.535
	(−1.18)	(−1)	(−0.98)	(−1.42)
$\ln {\mathbf{G}\mathbf{D}\mathbf{P}}_{\mathbf{j}}$	0.772 ***	0.746 ***	0.735 ***	0.646 ***
	(−23.11)	(−12.2)	(−10.63)	(−4.65)
$\ln {\mathbf{d}}_{\mathbf{i}\mathbf{j}}$	−0.453 ***	−0.387 ***	−0.366 ***	−0.353 ***
	(−14.54)	(−6.61)	(−8.68)	(−3.89)
cons	1.889	−4.484	4.712 ***	−0.0419
	(−1.28)	(−0.57)	(−6.49)	(−0.01)
Sigma			−0.794	−0.978
			(−1.62)	(−1.05)
Gamma			2.972 ***	3.010 *
			(−4.24)	(−2.22)
Mu			0.876 **	0.647
			(−2.81)	(−1.05)
Eta			0.0205 ***	0.09
			(−4.26)	(−0.96)
N	240	48	240	48

t statistics in parentheses. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001.

provide valuable insights into the impact of the Arctic shipping route on trade volumes between Shanghai Port and the sample countries. We employed both specified gravity models (Models 1 and 2) and stochastic frontier gravity models (Models 3 and 4) to comprehensively investigate the gravity effects of trade. The application of the robust option enhanced the robustness of the results by correcting for white heteroskedasticity.

In the specified gravity models (G model) (Models 1 and 2), the general linear regression method was employed to investigate the gravity effects of trade, focusing on the relationship between ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$, ln${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$, and ln${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$. As per the analysis results, the positive or negative correlation of the three independent variables aligns with theoretical expectations. This comprehensive verification underscores the rationality of employing the gravity model to explore the impact of distance reduction due to the Arctic route on port logistics. The P-values reflect the significance of the regression coefficients, indicating that both variables and coefficients have passed significance tests, thereby bolstering the quality of the results. Pertaining to the study’s focal point, the coefficient relating maritime distance between two nations, ln${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$, is approximately −0.453, signifying a negative correlation. In other words, all else being constant, a shorter maritime distance between two countries corresponds to a greater bilateral trade volume.

However, within the stochastic frontier gravity model (SFG Model: Models 3 and 4), a more intricate approach was adopted for trade volume modeling. This model incorporates a random error term and integrates the stochastic frontier technique to estimate the contribution of each country or region to the total trade volume. Beyond ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$ and ln${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$, this model introduces error terms for ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$ and ln${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$, capturing the influence of unobserved factors on trade volume. In this context, ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$ maintains a highly significant and positive coefficient (*** p < 0.001), indicating a positive connection between GDP and trade volume. The coefficient of ln${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$ remains notably significant and negative (*** p < 0.001), signifying a negative influence of distance on trade volume. Furthermore, the stochastic frontier gravity model (Models 3 and 4) furnishes the estimations of the random error terms, revealing each country or region’s contribution to the total trade volume. This disclosure enables the derivation of the trade volume’s frontier distribution, thus elucidating the relative importance of various countries or regions in trade activities.

In more specific terms, in Model 4, the estimated coefficient for ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$ is 0.535, signifying that a unit change will result in an increase of 0.535 billion USD in trade volume ln${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$). Compared to Model 3, the impact of Shanghai’s GDP on trade volume during the pandemic is more prominent, exhibiting a positive relationship. For Model 3, the estimated coefficient of ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$ is 0.646. This coefficient underscores a significant positive correlation between sample countries’ GDP and trade volume, with a greater influence before the COVID-19 pandemic. In Model 4, the estimated coefficient of ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{j}}$ is 0.746, implying that a percentage change results in 0.746% increase of trade volume (ln${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$). Compared to Model 3, the effect of sample countries’ GDP on trade volume remains relatively stable during the pandemic.

Concerning maritime distance (ln${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$), in both Models 3 and 4, the estimated coefficients for ln${\mathrm{d}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$ are −0.353 and −0.387, respectively. Both coefficients are significantly negative, indicating a substantial negative impact of increased maritime distance on trade volume. Notably, during the pandemic (Model 4), the influence of maritime distance on trade volume is less pronounced compared to the pre-pandemic scenario (Model 3). These results indicate that, as maritime distance increases, trade volume tends to decrease, aligning with logical expectations due to potentially higher transportation and time costs. Notably, in the time-varying modeling part, we also observe changes in the error variance of ln${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$ and the time decay parameter. This suggests that trade volume trends could alter with time, underscoring the need to consider the influence of time when making trade volume predictions or policy decisions.

It is important to note that the constant term (_cons) takes different values across model specifications, suggesting variations in the baseline level of trade volume when all other variables are zero or not included in the model. These variations could be attributed to omitted variables or other factors not accounted for in the analysis.

In conclusion, the stochastic frontier gravity models (3 and 4) offer a more comprehensive and accurate approach for analyzing the gravity effects of trade. Compared to the conventional model, the stochastic frontier model captures unobserved factors better and provides information about the contributions of each country or region to the total trade volume. Based on the results of Models 3 and 4, pre-pandemic Shanghai’s GDP has a relatively minor effect on trade volume, the GDP of sample countries has a significant positive influence on trade volume, and maritime distance has a pronounced negative impact. During the pandemic, the influence of Shanghai’s GDP on trade volume increases, the impact of the sample countries’ GDP remains relatively stable, and the effect of maritime distance diminishes. These empirical results can provide deeper insights for trade policymakers and analysts to formulate more precise and effective trade policies.

6.3. Further Discussions

The empirical analysis results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of trade volumes between Shanghai Port and the sample countries, particularly in the context of the impact of the Arctic shipping route and the post-pandemic landscape. The findings demonstrate that the GDP of the sample countries and the maritime distance between Shanghai Port and the sample ports significantly influence trade volumes, with certain variations observed during the pandemic period. These results align with existing literature, such as Novy (2013) [53] in several key aspects, while they also focus on the impact of the Arctic shipping route and the post-pandemic landscape.

Through regression analysis of pre-pandemic data, we find that Shanghai’s Gross Domestic Product (ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$) has an insignificant impact on trade volume (ln${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$). This implies that Shanghai’s local economic activity, both before and during the pandemic, has no direct influence on changes in trade volume with the sample countries. This could suggest that Shanghai’s trade volume is primarily affected by other factors, such as international market demand and trade policies.

However, we observe a significant positive impact of the Gross Domestic Product of the sample countries (ln${\mathrm{G}\mathrm{D}\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{i}}$) on trade volume (ln${\mathrm{T}}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}$), both before and during the pandemic. This underscores the sample countries’ economic activities as having a crucial role in promoting trade volume. The observed positive influence of the GDP of the sample countries on trade volume confirms the well-established relationship between economic activities and trade flows. As the economies of the sample countries grow, trade volumes increase accordingly, reflecting the interconnected nature of international trade and economic development. This finding resonates with previous studies, e.g., Grossman and Helpman (2018) [54], emphasizing the pivotal role of economic factors in shaping global trade patterns.

The persistent negative impact of maritime distance on trade volume aligns with logical expectations and corroborates existing research, highlighting the adverse effects of longer transportation distances on trade activities. Higher transportation costs, longer shipping times, and increased logistical complexities associated with greater distances contribute to reduced trade volumes, underscoring the significance of geographical proximity in fostering robust trade relations. This finding reinforces the notion that reducing maritime distances through efficient transportation routes can lead to enhanced trade volumes and economic exchanges, thereby contributing to the growth and development of port logistics.

Considering the analyzed data from the pandemic period, it is clear that despite the opening of the Arctic shipping routes, the increased distances still have a negative influence on trade volume. This is consistent with the observations made in the research mentioned in Section 2, e.g., Mingyue and Maishow (2014) [37], but our study further highlights the risks and challenges associated with Arctic shipping under pandemic circumstances. In the post-pandemic era, the development of logistics at Shanghai Port may face obstacles as the negative impact of distance on trade volume persists even with the availability of the Arctic shipping routes. While the opening of the Arctic routes offers the potential for shorter distances and improved transportation options, it does not necessarily guarantee a complete shift of trade flows to the Arctic region.

Furthermore, the heightened influence of Shanghai’s GDP on trade volume during the pandemic period suggests the increased significance of local economic activities and policies in driving trade volumes amidst global crises. The findings imply that regional economic dynamics and localized trade initiatives play a crucial role in maintaining and fostering trade relationships, particularly during disruptive events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This observation highlights the adaptive nature of trade dynamics and the need for resilient trade policies and strategies to sustain trade flows and logistical development during challenging times.

Shanghai Port, being a vital international trade hub in China, relies heavily on the growth of international trade and shipping activities. Therefore, the impact of Arctic shipping on the logistics development of Shanghai Port must be assessed comprehensively, considering various factors such as distance, policy environment, port facilities and service capabilities, trade partnerships, among others. This aligns with the comprehensive analysis advocated by various studies, e.g., Notteboom et al. (2020) [55] and Smith et al. (2022) [56], which emphasizes the need to account for multiple factors when evaluating the impact of Arctic shipping on port development. To predict the specific implications of post-pandemic Arctic shipping on logistics development at Shanghai Port, further research and analysis are required. This would involve integrating actual data and contextual factors to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and challenges brought by Arctic shipping in the post-pandemic era.

Overall, the findings emphasize the complex interplay between economic factors, geographical considerations, and external disruptions in shaping trade volumes and port logistics development. They underline the critical role of both regional and global economic activities in driving international trade and the importance of efficient transportation routes in facilitating trade exchanges. As the post-pandemic period becomes the new norm and global trade activities gradually revert to pre-pandemic levels, these findings offer essential guidance for policymakers, trade analysts, and businesses, enabling them to formulate informed strategies and policies to foster sustainable and resilient trade relationships, and promote the development of port logistics in the post-pandemic era.

7. Opportunities and Strategies for Shanghai Port’s Logistics under the Arctic Shipping Route

7.1. Opportunities and Challenges from the Arctic Shipping Route

With the global spread of the pandemic, the impact of the opening of the Arctic shipping route on the development of Shanghai Port’s logistics may undergo changes. During the pandemic, economic activities and international trade were significantly affected, posing various challenges to port logistics. According to the data in 2021, Shanghai Port had maintained steady growth before the pandemic. The Shanghai Port Authority reported that, in 2019, the cargo throughput of Shanghai Port reached approximately 140 million tons, representing an increase of around 5% from 2018 (Shanghai Port Authority. (2020). Shanghai Port Annual Report. Shanghai Port Authority Publishing House). However, in 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a certain decrease in cargo throughput, declining by about 3% compared to the previous year (Shanghai Port Authority. (2021). Shanghai Port Annual Report. Shanghai Port Authority Publishing House). As global trade gradually recovered, Shanghai Port began its recovery in the first half of 2021. According to Shanghai Customs statistics, in the first half of 2021, the total import and export trade volume of Shanghai Port reached approximately USD 500 billion, a growth of about 10% compared to the previous year (Shanghai Customs. (2021). Statistical Report on Import and Export Trade Situation of Shanghai Ports in the First Half of 2021. Shanghai Customs Publishing House). This indicates Shanghai Port’s gradual resurgence in logistics activities after the pandemic, making the opening of the Arctic shipping route poised to have a positive impact on the development of Shanghai Port’s logistics.

The integration of the Arctic route is poised to significantly reduce the distance between Shanghai Port and major global ports, resulting in lowered costs and enhanced trade prospects. This shortened distance is anticipated to foster increased trade activities and stronger connections, thereby bolstering Shanghai Port’s global competitiveness and attractiveness to foreign companies, and ultimately driving shipping growth. Despite the challenges inherent in navigating the Arctic route, the potential cost and time savings remain pivotal, particularly during periods of pandemics, thereby improving operational efficiency and strengthening Shanghai’s core economy. These enhanced logistical capabilities serve to fortify Shanghai Port’s global network, offering greater flexibility and resilience in post-pandemic logistics operations. While challenges persist, the utilization of the Arctic route sets a new benchmark, enhancing Shanghai Port’s competitive edge in the global logistics landscape. With reduced maritime distances translating into lower costs and improved efficiency, the potential for increased trade volumes becomes apparent. Traditionally, routes between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal (10,762 nm, 35 days), Panama Canal (14,139 nm, 40 days), and Cape of Good Hope (12,071 nm, 46 days) highlight the considerable time and distance savings offered by the Arctic route, which spans 6276 nm, cutting distances by 41–56% and trade volumes by 23–30%. These statistics underscore the pivotal role of Shanghai Port in the global logistics arena, solidifying its position as a crucial hub in international trade with a sustainable focus.

The opening of the Arctic shipping route also holds paramount significance in elevating Shanghai Port’s global standing. Situated at the core of global trade, the Asia–Pacific region’s economic activities and trade exchanges are burgeoning. The Arctic route’s accessibility tightly integrates Shanghai Port into the Asia–Pacific and global port networks, enriching its international routes and trade channels. This elevation of port status augments its competitiveness.

While the development of the Arctic shipping route offers promising opportunities, it is essential to acknowledge and address the associated challenges, particularly in the post-pandemic era. These include potential impacts on the delicate marine environment and biodiversity, with ship emissions, wastewater discharge, and waste disposal posing significant risks to local ecosystems. Moreover, despite the potential for reduced greenhouse gas emissions through fuel savings, the melting of ice caused by ships and the construction of shipping lanes could counteract these efforts, exacerbating climate change concerns, which are especially critical in the context of the post-pandemic push for sustainable practices. The utilization of the Arctic shipping route may also lead to disputes within local communities, particularly surrounding environmental issues and resource management, further complicating the post-pandemic recovery efforts. Additionally, the route’s inherent risks, including natural obstacles like basalt and icebergs, necessitate comprehensive safety measures and robust risk management strategies to ensure sustainable and responsible navigation practices, aligning with the growing emphasis on sustainable and resilient operations in the wake of the pandemic.

Moreover, the immense economic uncertainty posed by the COVID-19 pandemic necessitates Shanghai Port and other ports to adapt to the new post-pandemic norms. These evolving circumstances mandate strategic and planning adjustments. Therefore, in the course of its development, the Arctic shipping route needs to take full account of such factors as environmental protection and sustainable development, and at the same time needs to strengthen relevant scientific research and technical support in order to ensure its safe and sustainable development.

In summation, the post-pandemic Arctic shipping route offers an avenue for Shanghai Port’s logistical advancement. While challenges persist, prudent strategies and innovation will enable Shanghai Port to enhance its competitive edge and global standing.

7.2. Strategies for the Development of Shanghai Port’s Logistics under the Arctic Shipping Route

The commencement of the Arctic shipping route ushers in escalated trade requisites. To adeptly navigate burgeoning business pressures, Shanghai Port should pivot towards the amalgamation and amplification of its logistical enterprises. Effectuating a shift from dispersion to uniformity and magnitude [57], the port can amalgamate petite and intermediate-scale logistics firms and fragmented resources within a cohesive management structure. Such a consolidation empowers the provisioning of specialized and all-encompassing transport services to maritime companies and cargo proprietors, a process that trims superfluous and intricate logistical procedures. Concomitantly, insights from the pandemic epoch must be heeded, thwarting resource attrition and intellectual drain stemming from no-holds-barred inter-corporate rivalry. At the same time, port logistics clusters should be established to provide full play to the mutual promotion between port trade and the regional economy [58]. This introverted–extroverted, proximal-to-distant modus operandi espouses sustainability, heightening transit efficiency and capacitation, whilst attenuating the perturbations posed by unforeseen public incidents on supply chains and trading schemas.

Post-pandemic, Shanghai Port’s advancement necessitates a transition towards intellect-driven transformation and digital innovation. To erect a resilient transport framework, augmented investment in technological endowments emerges as paramount. Encouraging logistics enterprises entrenched within the port to expedite their transformational trajectory and amplify their competitive verve stands pivotal in securing market preeminence. Moreover, Shanghai Port should reallocate augmented human and fiscal resources towards the international logistics transit sphere. This encompasses refining logistical modi operandi, erecting multifarious logistics infrastructures, and optimizing terminal utilization and handling proficiencies. To bolster logistical efficiency, the punctual, efficacious, and unerring transmittance of logistical data remains imperative. Leveraging avant-garde modalities like blockchain technology, the Internet of Things (IoT), and port-dedicated 5G technology, an informational nexus can be meticulously crafted. This enables diverse logistical stakeholders to seamlessly upload and access data on their respective termini. Blockchain technology, an information custodian, upholds data rectitude and precision, concurrently empowering regulatory authorities to upload international cargo transit accords and stipulations. This expedites timely updates for logistics enterprises, streamlining data retrieval and expeditiously fulfilling exigencies emerging from the burgeoning post-pandemic trade milieu, both at the domestic and global echelons.

8. Conclusions and Future Discussions

Our investigation into the sustainability implications of the Arctic shipping route for Shanghai Port logistics in the post-pandemic era has yielded insightful outcomes. In the context of the global pandemic, the Arctic shipping route has emerged as a double-edged sword, presenting Shanghai Port with a spectrum of opportunities and challenges. Through a comprehensive exploration of the intricate dynamics between the Arctic shipping route and Shanghai Port, we have underscored the multifaceted nature of the opportunities and challenges arising from this significant development. Leveraging a combination of gravity models and stochastic frontier gravity models, we meticulously delineated the underlying factors influencing trade volumes, emphasizing the critical role played by economic growth, geographical proximity, and other latent variables. Spanning the pre- and post-pandemic landscapes, our model-driven insights unequivocally confirm the affirmative ramifications of the Arctic shipping route, including amplified trade volumes, refined logistical efficiency, and diversified transit options—all of which are instrumental in steering Shanghai Port toward a more sustainable future.

The findings from our empirical analysis offer compelling evidence of the positive impacts of the Arctic shipping route, emphasizing its potential to significantly augment trade volumes, streamline logistical efficiency, and diversify transit options, thereby fostering the sustainable growth of Shanghai Port. These empirical insights provide a solid foundation for informed decision-making by policymakers and industry stakeholders, facilitating the formulation of targeted strategies and policies geared towards enhancing the sustainability and resilience of Shanghai Port’s logistics operations.

Based on the research findings, the study underscores the significance of presenting targeted policy implications to facilitate a seamless transition towards sustainable logistics development at Shanghai Port. The empirical analysis emphasizes the need for proactive policy measures to capitalize on the opportunities emerging from the Arctic shipping route. These policy interventions should prioritize infrastructure development to enhance the port’s capacity and resilience, streamline trade procedures to expedite the flow of goods, enforce stringent environmental regulations to mitigate ecological impact, foster international collaboration to promote innovation, and develop comprehensive risk management frameworks to navigate potential disruptions. By strategically implementing these targeted policy implications, Shanghai Port can effectively leverage the benefits of the Arctic shipping route while proactively addressing the associated challenges, fostering sustainable growth, and solidifying its position as a key player in the evolving global logistics landscape.

In summary, this comprehensive study stands as an empirical cornerstone, emphasizing the pivotal role of the Arctic shipping route in shaping the logistics evolution of Shanghai Port in the post-pandemic era. Significantly, the empirical evidence presented in this research underscores the tangible benefits and positive impacts resulting from the integration of the Arctic shipping route into the logistical operations of Shanghai Port. This empirical contribution not only provides valuable insights for industry stakeholders and professionals but also offers a strategic blueprint for effectively capitalizing on opportunities and addressing challenges. Collectively, these findings pave the way for a sustainable, efficient, and innovative logistics landscape at Shanghai Port.

While our study has illuminated various critical aspects, it is essential to acknowledge its limitations. The primary focus on opportunities stemming from the Arctic shipping route has overshadowed potential challenges and associated risks to some extent. An in-depth exploration of the constraints related to implementing the Arctic shipping route for Shanghai Port’s logistics development, including the environmental impact, infrastructural requirements, regulatory compliance, and geopolitical complexities, would significantly enhance our understanding of the sustainability implications. Additionally, the study’s depth of analysis may have been affected by limited access to certain datasets and information, necessitating an acknowledgment of potential data constraints that could have influenced the study’s scope and generalizability. Addressing these limitations would undoubtedly enrich the study’s informative value, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of the sustainable implications of the Arctic shipping route for Shanghai Port logistics during the current transitional phase.

Furthermore, it is imperative to recognize the uncertainties and challenges inherent in the trajectory of the Arctic shipping route. Considering factors such as adverse weather conditions, infrastructure reinforcement, and security imperatives, China’s port and logistics sector must adapt to the evolving global trade landscape. Future research endeavors could concentrate on formulating strategies to harness the opportunities offered by the Arctic shipping route, bolstering Shanghai Port’s logistics capabilities, and expediting its sustainable growth in the post-pandemic era.