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Construction of a Predictive Model for MLB Matches

Department of Nursing, Chang Gung University of Science and Technology, Chiayi Campus, Chiayi 61363, Taiwan
Received: 5 January 2021 / Revised: 8 February 2021 / Accepted: 11 February 2021 / Published: 16 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Forecasting in Computer Science)
The main purpose of this article was to define a model that could defeat the online bookmakers’ odds, where the betting item considered was the first five innings of major league baseball (MLB) matches. The betting odds of online bookmakers have two purposes: first, they are used to quantify the amount of profit made by the bettors; second, they are regarded as a market equilibrium point between multiple bookmakers and bettors. If the bettors have a more accurate prediction model than the system used to produce betting odds, it will create a positive expected return for the bettors. In this article, we used the Markov process method and the runner advancement model to estimate the expected runs in an MLB match for the teams based on the batting lineup and the pitcher. View Full-Text
Keywords: betting odds; implied probability; Markov process; runner advancement model; expected return betting odds; implied probability; Markov process; runner advancement model; expected return
MDPI and ACS Style

Chang, C.-H. Construction of a Predictive Model for MLB Matches. Forecasting 2021, 3, 102-112. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/forecast3010007

AMA Style

Chang C-H. Construction of a Predictive Model for MLB Matches. Forecasting. 2021; 3(1):102-112. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/forecast3010007

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chang, Chia-Hao. 2021. "Construction of a Predictive Model for MLB Matches" Forecasting 3, no. 1: 102-112. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/forecast3010007

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