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Article

Analysis of Changes in Habitat Suitability of the Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus melas, Cuvier 1809) on Java Island, 2000–2020

by
Muhammad As’ary
1,
Yudi Setiawan
1,2,* and
Dones Rinaldi
1
1
Department of Forest Resource Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
2
Center for Environment Research, Institution of Research and Community Empowerment, IPB University, Kampus IPB Dramaga, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Diversity 2023, 15(4), 529; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/d15040529
Submission received: 3 January 2023 / Revised: 9 March 2023 / Accepted: 31 March 2023 / Published: 6 April 2023
(This article belongs to the Section Animal Diversity)
Browse Figures
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Abstract

:
The Javan leopard is an apex predator whose distribution is limited to the island of Java and Nusakambangan Island, and it is classified as an endangered species. The forest habitat of the Javan leopard is subject to annual damage, which causes a decrease in its quality and suitability as a habitat for this species. This study aimed to determine the changes in the suitability of the Javan leopard habitat from 2000 to 2020 and the variables affecting it. A habitat suitability analysis was performed using the MaxEnt application. The data included coordinate points and environment variables. The variables included the distance from rivers, undisturbed tropical forests, degraded forests, permanent water, shrubs, farms, plantations, and settlements. The model produced an AUC value of 0.812, indicating the model was good. In the 2000 model year, the highly suitable habitat area of the Javan leopard was 2481.38 km2, the suitable habitat area was 2630.763 km2, and the unsuitable area was 7790.155 km2. In the 2020 model, the area of highly suitable habitat was 1429.647 km2, the area of suitable habitat was 2379.344 km2, and the area that was not suitable was 9093.081 km2. Primary forest was the variable that contributed most to the model.

1. Introduction

The Javan leopard (Panthera pardus melas Cuvier, 1809) is a leopard sub-species with a minimal distribution, including only Java Island [1] and Nusakambangan Island [2]. The Javan leopard is the apex predator on the island of Java and is a keystone species in the forest ecosystem on the island due to the extinction of the Javan tiger (Panthera tigris sondaica), and the lack of other carnivorous species with a larger body size than the Javan leopard [3].
The Javan leopard (Panthera pardus melas Cuvier, 1809) is a protected animal based on Government Regulation Number 7 of 1999 concerning Protected Plant and Animal Species. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), the status of the Javan leopard is critically endangered (critical). The Javan leopard is also included in Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) [4]. The Javan leopard population on Java Island is estimated to have decreased consistently each year [5]. The number of Javan leopards in the conservation areas on the island of Java is estimated at 350–700 individuals [6].
Java Island has the largest population in Indonesia (Figure 1). The forest area, which is the habitat of the Javan leopard, has decreased as the population has increased. The forest area on Java Island in 2020 was 2711.6 ha, a decrease compared to 2019 and 2018 of 2849.6 ha and 3212.6 ha, respectively [7]. Reduced forest cover can lead to the extinction of plants and animals [8]. One of the animals affected by the decline in forest area is the Javan leopard. Habitat destruction includes habitat loss and quality degradation, and it is the most significant cause of the extinction of populations and species, especially carnivores [9].
The habitat of the Javan leopard in western Java is better than that in eastern Java. This is evident from the increased likelihood of Javan leopards being found in areas with higher precipitation [10]. A study of leopard habitats in India suggested that improved agricultural land, forest, and scrub could increase the area of suitable habitat [11]. In addition, the suitable leopard habitat in Taman Negara National Park is located 14 km from urban areas [12]. Information on the spatial data is needed to determine the distribution and habitat of the Javan leopard. Through a spatial analysis, the relationship between the Javan leopard and environmental components can be analyzed so that it can be used as a determinant of the location of suitable habitat for the Javan leopard and determine how much influence each environmental component has on their survival.
It has been estimated that several locations where the Javan leopard is distributed have decreased in quality and suitability. They have abandoned several areas because they are no longer suitable [5]. This study aimed to (1) identify the habitat suitability for the Javan leopard (Panthera pardus melas) and analyze the variables that affect the habitat suitability in Java and (2) analyze changes in the suitability of the Javan leopard (Panthera pardus melas) habitat from 2000 to 2020.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

Java Island covers an area of 126,700 km2 and is divided into 6 provinces: Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, and Banten. Java Island is located between 7°50′10″ and 7°56′41″ South latitude and 113°48′10″ and 113°48′26″ East longitude. Java Island is bordered to the south by the Indian Ocean, to the north by the Java Sea, to the west by the Sunda Strait, and to the east by the Bali Strait (Figure 1).

2.2. Collection and Preparation of Occurrence Data

We obtained Javan leopard monitoring data from leopard presence records for 2000–2020 from the Directorate General of Biodiversity Conservation (Dirjen KKH), West Java Nature Conservation Agency (BBKSDA West Java), Central Java Nature Conservation Agency (BKSDA Central Java), East Java Nature Conservation Agency (BBKSDA East Java), Meru Betiri National Park, and the literature, which included a total of 270 records of the presence of the Javan leopard on the island of Java. The Javan leopard monitoring data were projected in decimal degrees based on the 1984 WGS datum. Presence data of Javan leopard encounters were processed using ArcMap 10.8 software to produce shapefile coordinate point data. The shapefile coordinate point data were converted into CSV (Comma Separated Values), to be used as species input in MaxEnt.

2.3. Collection and Preparation of Predictor Variables

This study used environmental parameters to predict habitat suitability, including physical and biological conditions. Biological conditions include forests, water bodies, shrubs, agriculture, and plantations [13,14]. The Javan leopard prefers dense forest vegetation as its habitat, utilizing lush forest vegetation as a place to find food, water, and shelter, and for breeding [15]. Data on biological conditions such as primary forest, secondary forests, water bodies, and shrubs were obtained from [16], while agricultural and plantation data were obtained from Landsat imagery processed using the Google Earth Engine.
Physical conditions were represented by the variable distance from the river [14,17,18] and anthropogenic disturbance was represented by settlements [14,17]. The anthropogenic disturbance factor has a notable effect on the Javan leopard [14]. We obtained settlement data from [19]. River polyline data with a scale of 1:25,000 obtained from topographic maps derived from the Geospatial Information Agency, used for distance to the river, were processed using Euclidean distance. A literature study was used to obtain additional information to complement data on Javan leopards on Java Island and Conservation Area Maps obtained from [20].

2.4. Multicollinearity Analysis

A multicollinearity analysis aims to determine the correlation between the environmental variables used in a study. Multicollinearity analysis can affect the results of modeling. One of the environmental variables must be eliminated if the correlation value is ≤−0.75 or >0.75 [21]. If multicollinearity occurs, then a variable is strongly correlated with other variables in the model, and its predictive power is unreliable and unstable.
The negative effect of the presence of multicollinearity will mean the resulting model is overconfident due to the influence of two or more variables on each other. The multicollinearity analysis method uses the SPSS 20.3 software.

2.5. Model Calibration and Evaluation

Habitat suitability modeling using MaxEnt software is used to identify the spatial distribution of a species based on the data and environmental variables that affect the presence of that species [17]. MaxEnt uses presence data to predict the habitat suitability of a species based on maximum entropy theory, estimating the habitat suitability of the closest and most uniform species by considering habitat characteristics. MaxEnt uses presence data and environmental variables as inputs for modeling. The MaxEnt model used in this study was a transfer model using mobility-oriented parity analysis to estimate the historical distribution of leopards in the year 2000 [22]. The MaxEnt modeling used 25% randomized tests, 50 replications, and 5000 iterations [23].
Evaluation of the habitat suitability model was based on the AUC (Area Under the Curve) value of the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve. The Area Under the Curve value represents the overall accuracy and is not affected by the threshold value. In addition, a Jackknife analysis was performed to assess consistency in variable importance between training and test acquisition [24]. Based on [25], the Area Under the Curve test values were obtained as follows (Table 1).

2.6. Predicted Potential Suitability

The suitability classes for Javan leopard habitat were divided into unsuitable, suitable, and highly suitable thresholds (Table 2) [25]. Changes in the suitability of the Javan leopard’s habitat from 2000 to 2020 can be seen in at least two habitat suitability maps obtained at different times. This method was used because, alongside finding out the area of land change that has occurred, it can also find the direction of the shift [26]. In addition, by using at least two habitat suitability maps, it is easier to find differences in species distribution and habitat suitability areas.

3. Results

3.1. Multicollinearity Analysis

Multicollinearity can affect the results of the modeling. One of the environmental variables must be eliminated if the correlation value is ≤−0.75 or >0.75 [21]. The multicollinearity analysis method uses the SPSS 20.3 software. The results of the 2000 multicollinearity analysis are shown in Table 3, and the results for 2020 are shown in Table 4.
The multicollinearity analysis in Table 3 and Table 4 showed there was no double correlation; there was not a high correlation between the variables. The variables chosen for the modeling will not make the resulting modeling overconfident.

3.2. Model Calibration and Evaluation

The assessment of model accuracy can be measured by looking at the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve [27]. The AUC is the area under the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) and is a standard method for identifying the prediction accuracy of distribution models [28]. The ROC curve is given in Figure 2.
The Javan leopard habitat suitability model on Java Island had an AUC value of 0.812 with a standard deviation value of 0.026. The model performance is good if the standard deviation value is smaller [29]. The AUC value suggests a very good model between 0.90 and 1, good between 0.80 and 0.90, moderate between 0.70 and 0.80, and low below 0.70 [30]. The Javan leopard habitat suitability model for Java Island achieved a good performance. According to [30], an acceptable fit model should have an AUC value of more than 0.50.
Replicating the Javan leopard data model was used as an input random percentage test to produce a suitable model. The model replicated 50 times, with 25% random tests and 5000 iterations. One method to evaluate model performance is to use a random test percentage setting, which allows a certain percentage of attendance data to be used to evaluate the model performance [23]. Increasing iterations to 5000 gave the model sufficient time to converge [31]. A total of 68 points were used to perform point testing. The results of these test points were then overlaid with a map of the suitability of the Javan leopard’s habitat suitability to produce an accuracy of 97% for the 2020 model year and 90% for the 2000 model year.

3.3. Contribution of Each Environmental Variable

The environmental variables used in creating the model included the distance from rivers, primary forests, secondary forests, bodies of water, shrubs, agriculture, plantations, and settlements. The contribution of each environmental variable was assessed by looking at the percent contribution and permutation contribution and by looking at the results of the Jackknife analysis [31].
The percent contribution is a value that indicates the importance of the role of environmental variables in the results of the model [32]. The higher the PC value, the greater the contribution of this variable to the habitat suitability for the modeled species. The permutation importance describes the level of importance of a variable to the model, which is related to the AUC value [32].
Based on the percent contribution and importance permutation, 3 variables were found to contribute the most: primary forest at 38.9%, settlements at 29.8%, and distance from rivers at 12%. The total contribution of these 3 variables was 80.7% (Table 5).
The Jackknife test can provide information regarding environmental variables that contribute most to predicting suitable habitats for a species. The results of the Jackknife analysis of the environmental variables (Figure 3) described the single variable with the highest contribution in predicting habitat.
Primary forest was the variable with the highest contribution; it offers the most useful information and is not shared by other environmental variables. Reviewing the analysis without involving other variables would lead to a model without settlement variables, which would reduce the model’s quality. The results of the analysis involving all the variables produced the highest value of 0.7. Furthermore, the response of each variable could be seen through the results of the response curve graph for all the variables, and the variable it self [31].
The response curve for the MaxEnt model was created to visualize the probability of the presence of the Javan leopard in relation to the environmental variables. The curves show the mean response of the 50 replicate MaxEnt runs (red) and the standard deviation (blue, 2 shades for categorical variables).
The response curves for the distance from the river are shown in A and B (Figure 4). Curve A shows that at a distance of 0, it reached a value of 0.95, and in curve B, it reached a value of 0.8, and then decreased as the distance from the river increased. This indicated that the closer to the river, the higher the likelihood of Javan leopard encounters. In addition, the variable distance from the river on the curve produces a more significant contribution when combined with the other variable data, increasing the chance of finding the Javan leopard.
The land cover was classified into seven classes: primary forest, secondary forest, shrubs, agricultural land, plantations, settlements, and water bodies. Primary forest was the environmental variable with the highest contribution. The response curve for the primary forest land cover showed that leopards are more common in primary forest land cover compared to other cover types. This can be seen in the primary forest response curve, with a value of 0.90. The secondary forest response curve showed leopards were also commonly found in this cover type, with a value of 0.74.
In the response curve for plantations and shrubs, the probability of leopards being found was lower, with a value of 0.65 for plantation land cover and 0.64 for shrubs. Leopards were not found in settlements, agriculture, and water bodies, with each curve having a value of less than 0.1.
The relationship of land cover with the presence of the Javan leopard is shown in Figure 5 and Figure 6. In Figure 5 and Figure 6, the number 0 indicates not the selected variable, and the number 1 indicates the chosen variable.
The land cover categories of primary forest, secondary forest, settlements, plantations, agriculture, and shrubs experienced a decrease in the value of the contribution to the response curve with other variables (Figure 5) when compared to the response curve without other variables (Figure 6). The contribution value was higher if the variable was combined with the other variables related to the existence of the Javan leopard. The Javan leopard was not found in the land cover type of water bodies, but the distance–response curve from the river was relevant (Figure 4). The closer to the river, the higher the encounter rate with the Javan leopard.

3.4. Predicted Potential Suitability

The Java leopard habitat suitability model on Java Island in 2000 and 2020 was analyzed to determine the changes that had occurred over this time period in the suitability of the Java leopard habitat area. The suitability of the class with the habitat was divided into three class matches: suitable, suitable, and highly suitable [25]. Based on the calculation of the Java leopard habitat suitability class on Java Island, for the 2000 model year, the area of habitat that was very suitable for the Javan leopard was 2481.38 km2, the suitable habitat area was 2630.76 km2, and the area that was not suitable was 7790.16 km2. Meanwhile, for the 2020 model year, the size of the highly suitable habitat was 1429.65 km2, the suitable habitat was 2379.34 km2, and the area that was not suitable was 9093.08 km2 (Figure 7). The very suitable habitat for the Javan leopard is forest land cover. The habitat suitability of the Javan leopard on Java Island in the unsuitable class has the most expansive area. The highly suitable habitat suitability class had the smallest area, especially in 2020.
There was a difference in the area between the Javan leopard habitat suitability model in 2000 and 2020. The suitable habitat in 2000 was more expansive than in 2000 (Table 6).
The conservation area had a large amount of the high suitability class habitat for the Javan leopard both in 2000 (Figure 8) and 2020 (Figure 9). In 2000 and 2020, there were 36 conservation areas in West Java and Banten Provinces that had very suitable habitats, 11 conservation areas in Central Java Province, and 10 conservation areas in East Java Province (Table A1).
West Java Province had the largest area of suitable habitat for the Javan leopard in both 2000 and 2020, indicating that West Java Province plays a vital role in monitoring the Javan leopard population.
The leopard habitat suitability model was then grouped into suitable habitats with records of the presence of the Javan leopard with suitable habitats that do not have records of the presence of the Javan leopard. This grouping aimed to find which landscapes are suitable as habitats for the Javan leopard (Figure 10).
Based on Figure 10, there are still many suitable habitats for the leopards outside the conservation areas where their presence has not yet been recorded, which may be in production forests or secondary forests outside the protected areas.

4. Discussion

Ecological niche modeling has been widely used in conservation biology studies. The sampling range and sample size are key factors determining the species distribution model. The habitat suitability model describes the habitat distribution that can support life for a species. In this case, there is a suitable habitat for the Javan leopard on the island of Java. The environmental variables that contributed the most to the model developed here included primary forest, distance from rivers, and settlements.
Primary forest is the variable with the highest contribution. Primary forest is the main habitat for various animals and plants, including the Javan leopard. The Javan leopard prefers mountainous tropical rainforests and lowland tropical rainforests. This is because mountain tropical forests have good vegetation and are rich in species diversity. Lowland tropical forests have quite high species diversity, even though many forests are already secondary, so they are also a good habitat for Javan leopards [33]. Based on the research by [10], the distance from the forest is the variable that contributes the most to modeling the suitability of the Javan leopard’s habitat.
Leopards have average home range size ranges of 30–78 km2 (males) and 23–33 km2 (females) in protected areas [34]. In non-protected areas, according to [35], the range of the male leopard is 6–63 km2, while that of the female leopard is 6–13 km2. Based on the presence data overlaid with the forest area, around 10 individuals were found in a forest area of less than 10 km2, and the rest were found in a forest area of more than 10 km2. According to [36], the factor that most affects home range is prey availability. The lower the availability of prey animals, the more the area of the leopard’s home range will increase. The leopard’s home range will be smaller if the population of prey animals is abundant. Distance from the river has a fairly high contribution. Javan leopards can use water sources for hunting prey as many prey animals spend time near water sources due to the higher diversity of vegetation types on the banks of rivers, providing diverse feed types [37].
Settlement is a variable with a fairly high contribution value in encounters with the Javan leopard. The destruction of the natural habitat of the Javan leopard due to deforestation, land conversion, and fragmentation causes a decrease in carrying capacity, which forces the leopard out of its habitat and into marginal areas in search of food, where they may attack prey such as livestock and target humans as well. As the population density increases, human settlements begin to approach the forest area habitats, often causing the leopards to enter residential areas to hunt livestock. Locating community cattle pens close to forest areas can worsen this problem [14]. Leopards prefer prey between 25 and 50 kg or less than half their body size, such as goats and poultry [1]. Based on records from the Javan Leopard Conservation Strategy and Action Plan 2016–2026, during the 2008–2013 period, there were 14 conflicts between leopards and humans due to leopards entering residential areas to prey on livestock. In addition, based on [38], in 2018–2020, 10 leopard conflicts with humans occurred due to leopards preying on community livestock.
Leopards are a highly adaptable species with an excellent ability to utilize any resources available in human-dominated environments [39]. According to [40], Javan leopards live not only in conservation forests but also in production forests. They may also explore plantation areas, such as rubber plantations, tea plantations, and coffee plantations. Leopards often use plantations as trajectories to find prey [14].
There was a difference in the area between the Javan leopard habitat suitability model in 2000 and 2020. The suitable habitat area in 2000 was larger than in 2020 (Table 6). This is because the forest, the most suitable habitat for leopards, has been damaged. According to [41], the forest cover in Java during 2000–2009 reduced by 60.6% due to deforestation. In addition, the increase in settlements to the point where they are close to forests has threatened the habitat of leopards due to human activities.
The reduction in the area of suitable habitat for leopards corresponds to the decline in the leopard population. In 1990, Javan leopards were found in 12 conservation areas, including national parks, nature reserves, and wildlife sanctuaries. These areas supported a total population of 350–700 Javan leopards [6]. In 2013, a group of Indonesian scientists estimated that there were 491–546 leopards in the remaining natural forests in Java [42].
Conservation areas are essential habitats for leopards. According to [33], forests that function as conservation areas generally have the best habitats for wildlife compared to protected forests, production forests, or other land use types. In addition, leopards choose their habitat based on the quality and safety of the forest. Conservation areas have good security for biodiversity because they are far from exploitative human activities and have security patrols High-quality habitats produce more abundant animal life; low-quality habitats will create conditions for populations with low reproductive rates [15]. Based on the research by [10], landscapes suitable for the Javan leopard habitat only represent 8.9% of the total area of Java Island.
The unsuitable class of habitat on Java Island has the largest area. This is due to the destruction of forests, leading to the loss of habitat and habitat fragmentation, compounded by hunting for leopards and their prey animals. As the human population on the island of Java has increased, the conversion of land from forests to settlements has increased, reducing the forest area and leading to the isolation of the Javan leopard. The conservation area is an essential habitat for leopards. The quality of the forest in the conservation area has been maintained and has high biodiversity. In addition, the conservation area has a high level of protection from human activities that threaten the life of the Javan leopard.

5. Conclusions

The suitability of the Javan leopard’s habitat on the island of Java from 2000 to 2020 has changed in terms of area. For the 2000 model year, the highly suitable habitat area for the Javan leopard was 2481.38 km2, the suitable habitat area was 2630.763 km2, and the unsuitable area was 7790.155 km2. For the 2020 model year, the area of highly suitable habitat was 1429.647 km2, the area of suitable habitat was 2379.344 km2, and the area that was not suitable was 9093.081 km2. In both 2000 and 2020, the habitat suitability was spread across 57 conservation areas. The variable that has the most influence on the Javan leopard habitat suitability model is primary forest. The primary forest is a critical habitat, providing everything the Javan leopard needs. The second largest contributing variable is settlement. This is because leopards often forage in settlements, especially when community livestock enclosures are close to forest areas, to prey on livestock.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, M.A., Y.S. and D.R.; methodology, M.A.; software, M.A.; validation, Y.S. and D.R.; formal analysis, M.A.; investigation, Y.S. and D.R.; resources, M.A. and Y.S.; data curation, Y.S. and D.R.; writing—original draft preparation, M.A.; writing—review and editing, Y.S. and D.R.; visualization, M.A.; supervision, Y.S. and D.R.; project administration, Y.S. and D.R. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research publication was supported by Laboratory of Environmental Analysis and Geospatial Modelling, Department of Forest Resource Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, IPB University, Indonesia.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The data presented in this study can be obtain from Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Appendix A. Javan Leopard Highly Suitable Habitat in Conservation Areas

Table
Table A1. Javan leopard highly suitable habitat in conservation areas.
Table A1. Javan leopard highly suitable habitat in conservation areas.
ProvinceType of Conservation AreaConservation Area
West JavaNational Park
  • Gunung Gede-Pangrango
  • Halimun Salak
  • Ujung Kulon
  • Ciremai
Nature Preserve
  • Rawa Dano
  • Leuweung Sancang
  • Gunung Tilu
  • Telaga Warna
  • Takokak
  • Gunung Jagat
  • Papandayan
  • Rawa Dano
  • Leuweung Sancang
  • Gunung Tilu
  • Telaga Warna
  • Takokak
  • Gunung Jagat
  • Talaga Bodas
  • Gunung Simpang
  • Gunung Tukung Gede
  • Kawah Kamojang
  • Gunung Burangrang
  • Papandayan
Wildlife Preserve
  • Cikepuh
  • Gunung Sawal
Hunting Park
  • Gunung Masigit Kareumbi
Nature Recreation Park
  • Kawah Kamojang
  • Talaga Bodas
  • Cimanggu
  • Gunung Tampomas
  • Talaga Warna
  • Jember
Central JavaNational Park
  • Gunung Merapi
  • Gunung Merbabu
Nature Preserve
  • Gunung Celering
  • Keling II/III
  • Pringamba I/II
  • Sub Vak 18C 19B Jatinegara
  • Bantarbolang
  • Gunung Butak
  • Cabak I/II
  • Peson Subah I,II
  • Pagerwunung Darupono
East JavaNational Park
  • Alas Purwo
  • Baluran
  • Bromo Tengger Semeru
  • Meru Betiri
Nature Preserve
  • Kawah Ijen
  • Picis
  • Sigogor
  • Manggis Gadungan
Wildlife Preserve
  • Dataran Tinggi Yang
Nature Recreation Park
  • Gunung Baung

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Figure 1. Study area.
Figure 1. Study area.
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Figure 2. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.
Figure 2. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.
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Figure 3. Jackknife evaluation of the relative importance of each variable.
Figure 3. Jackknife evaluation of the relative importance of each variable.
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Figure 4. The response curve for the variable distance from the river (A) with other variables; (B) without other variables.
Figure 4. The response curve for the variable distance from the river (A) with other variables; (B) without other variables.
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Figure 5. Response curve for the variable land cover with other variables.
Figure 5. Response curve for the variable land cover with other variables.
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Figure 6. Response curve for the variable land cover without other variables.
Figure 6. Response curve for the variable land cover without other variables.
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Figure 7. Javan leopard habitat suitability map: (A) 2000, (B) 2020.
Figure 7. Javan leopard habitat suitability map: (A) 2000, (B) 2020.
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Figure 8. Map of highly suitable habitat for the Javan leopard in conservation areas in 2000.
Figure 8. Map of highly suitable habitat for the Javan leopard in conservation areas in 2000.
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Figure 9. Map of highly suitable habitat for the Javan leopard in conservation areas in 2020.
Figure 9. Map of highly suitable habitat for the Javan leopard in conservation areas in 2020.
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Figure 10. Javan leopard habitat suitability based on attendance records in (A) 2000 and (B) 2020.
Figure 10. Javan leopard habitat suitability based on attendance records in (A) 2000 and (B) 2020.
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Table
Table 1. The level of model accuracy based on the Area Under the Curve value.
Table 1. The level of model accuracy based on the Area Under the Curve value.
AUC ValueModel Performance
<0.80Not Good
0.80–0.90Good
>0.90Very Good
Table
Table 2. Javan leopard habitat suitability classes.
Table 2. Javan leopard habitat suitability classes.
MaxEnt ValueSuitability Class
0–0.33Unsuitable
0.33–0.66Suitable
0.66–1Highly Suitable
Table
Table 3. Results of multicollinearity analysis in 2000.
Table 3. Results of multicollinearity analysis in 2000.
VariablesWaterbodyPrimary ForestSecondary ForestDistance from RiverSettlementPlantationAgricultureShrubs
11.000
2−0.0921.000
3−0.041−0.1471.000
4−0.0490.1010.0281.000
5−0.066−0.105−0.047−0.1221.000
6−0.036−0.0020.0390.066−0.0701.000
7−0.110−0.404−0.1360.000−0.4080.0031.000
80.198−0.018−0.008−0.013−0.016−0.007−0.0291.000
Table
Table 4. Results of multicollinearity analysis in 2020.
Table 4. Results of multicollinearity analysis in 2020.
VariablesWaterbodyPrimary ForestSecondary ForestDistance from RiverSettlementPlantationAgricultureShrubs
11.000
2−0.0521.000
3−0.0521.0001.000
4−0.0710.1340.1341.000
5−0.102−0.135−0.135−0.1461.000
6−0.044−0.039−0.039−0.042−0.1021.000
7−0.123−0.259−0.2590.064−0.542−0.0681.000
80.060−0.026−0.0260.043−0.0320.076−0.0511.000
Table
Table 5. Contribution of each environmental variable.
Table 5. Contribution of each environmental variable.
Environmental VariablesPercent ContributionPermutation Importance
Primary forests38.95.9
Settlements29.856.4
Distance from river1214
Agriculture11.118.5
Secondary forests6.10.1
Bodies of water25.1
Plantation0.10.1
Shrubs00
Table
Table 6. Area of suitability for Javan leopard habitat in 2000 and 2020.
Table 6. Area of suitability for Javan leopard habitat in 2000 and 2020.
MaxEnt ValueSuitability ClassTotal Area
20002020
0–0.33Unsuitable7790.1559093.081
0.33–0.66Suitable2630.7632379.344
0.66–1Highly Suitable2481.3781429.647
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As’ary, M.; Setiawan, Y.; Rinaldi, D. Analysis of Changes in Habitat Suitability of the Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus melas, Cuvier 1809) on Java Island, 2000–2020. Diversity 2023, 15, 529. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/d15040529

AMA Style

As’ary M, Setiawan Y, Rinaldi D. Analysis of Changes in Habitat Suitability of the Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus melas, Cuvier 1809) on Java Island, 2000–2020. Diversity. 2023; 15(4):529. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/d15040529

Chicago/Turabian Style

As’ary, Muhammad, Yudi Setiawan, and Dones Rinaldi. 2023. "Analysis of Changes in Habitat Suitability of the Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus melas, Cuvier 1809) on Java Island, 2000–2020" Diversity 15, no. 4: 529. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/d15040529

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