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Article

Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics

1
School of Management Science & Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
2
International Research Center for Sustainable Built Environment, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
3
Construction Economics and Management Research Center, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
4
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, 2628CN Delft, The Netherlands
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(15), 5307; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17155307
Received: 23 June 2020 / Revised: 17 July 2020 / Accepted: 21 July 2020 / Published: 23 July 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Occupational Safety and Risks in Construction)
Due to their characteristics and multiple objectives, high-speed rail (HSR) projects carry more complex risks than conventional projects and high correlation and conductivity are among the associated risk factors. Previous risk assessment frameworks for rail infrastructure have ignored the effects of risk interactions that inflate risk levels, namely, risk coupling effects. Based on a system dynamics method, this paper develops a risk coupling model for HSR project risk assessments. A risk factor list is established from a literature review, and relationships analysed using a case study and expert interviews. System dynamics equations are constructed and their parameters obtained by expert evaluations of risk factors. The proposed model is applied to a real-world HSR project to demonstrate it in detail. The model can evaluate the risk levels of HSR projects during a simulation period. In particular, it can identify the key coupling effects that are the main increased risk. It provides a significant resource, using which HSR project managers can identify and mitigate risks. View Full-Text
Keywords: high-speed rail; risk assessment; dynamic risk; risk coupling; risk interaction; system dynamics high-speed rail; risk assessment; dynamic risk; risk coupling; risk interaction; system dynamics
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MDPI and ACS Style

Xue, Y.; Xiang, P.; Jia, F.; Liu, Z. Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 5307. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17155307

AMA Style

Xue Y, Xiang P, Jia F, Liu Z. Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(15):5307. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17155307

Chicago/Turabian Style

Xue, Yutong, Pengcheng Xiang, Fuyuan Jia, and Zhaowen Liu. 2020. "Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 15: 5307. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17155307

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