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Article

An Early Warning System for Flood Detection Using Critical Slowing Down

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(17), 6131; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17176131
Received: 30 June 2020 / Revised: 28 July 2020 / Accepted: 6 August 2020 / Published: 24 August 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Managing Disaster Risk in a Changing World)
The theory of critical slowing down (CSD) suggests an increasing pattern in the time series of CSD indicators near catastrophic events. This theory has been successfully used as a generic indicator of early warning signals in various fields, including climate research. In this paper, we present an application of CSD on water level data with the aim of producing an early warning signal for floods. To achieve this, we inspect the trend of CSD indicators using quantile estimation instead of using the standard method of Kendall’s tau rank correlation, which we found is inconsistent for our data set. For our flood early warning system (FLEWS), quantile estimation is used to provide thresholds to extract the dates associated with significant increases on the time series of the CSD indicators. We apply CSD theory on water level data of Kelantan River and found that it is a reliable technique to produce a FLEWS as it demonstrates an increasing pattern near the flood events. We then apply quantile estimation on the time series of CSD indicators and we manage to establish an early warning signal for ten of the twelve flood events. The other two events are detected on the first day of the flood. View Full-Text
Keywords: critical slowing down; water level; quantile; flood early warning system critical slowing down; water level; quantile; flood early warning system
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MDPI and ACS Style

Syed Musa, S.M.S.; Md Noorani, M.S.; Abdul Razak, F.; Ismail, M.; Alias, M.A.; Hussain, S.I. An Early Warning System for Flood Detection Using Critical Slowing Down. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6131. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17176131

AMA Style

Syed Musa SMS, Md Noorani MS, Abdul Razak F, Ismail M, Alias MA, Hussain SI. An Early Warning System for Flood Detection Using Critical Slowing Down. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(17):6131. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17176131

Chicago/Turabian Style

Syed Musa, Syed M.S., Mohd S. Md Noorani, Fatimah Abdul Razak, Munira Ismail, Mohd A. Alias, and Saiful I. Hussain 2020. "An Early Warning System for Flood Detection Using Critical Slowing Down" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 17: 6131. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17176131

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