Study on the Contribution of Seaport to Urban Economy: An Empirical and Quantitative Analysis of Xiamen Port

Abstract

Ports play a vital role in the development of cities. In order to study the contribution of seaports to the urban economy, this paper uses the input–output method and multiplier theory to calculate the direct, indirect, and ripple economic contribution of ports to cities. Then, this paper selects Xiamen Port as an example to calculate the economic contribution. Xiamen Port is a major port on the southeast coast of China and an important node of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. It can provide a reference for other port cities. A more detailed index system for evaluating the economic contribution is also constructed. Next, the time series ARIMA model is used to predict the cargo throughput and container throughput of Xiamen Port in the next four years. Finally, there are some suggestions put forward for the development of Xiamen Port. The results show the total economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city accounted for 10.48% of the city’s GDP in 2017. Direct, indirect, and ripple economic contributions accounted for 2.84%, 2.13%, and 5.51%, respectively. The contribution of Xiamen Port to the city is in line with the growth pole theory, which not only allows for rapid growth in Xiamen Port itself but also drives the development of the entire region through the multiplier effect. The cargo throughput and container throughput of Xiamen Port will maintain continuous growth in the next four years. Therefore, the development of Xiamen Port should be accelerated to enhance its economic contribution to the city.

1. Introduction

Ports are the basic, service, leading, and strategic resources of the national economy, and the core carriers and powerful engines of the economic development of port cities [1]. The development of the port drives the prosperity of the city, and in turn, the prosperity of the city promotes the development of the port. According to statistics from Martin Associates, in 2018, the number of jobs driven by the US coastal port industry was as high as 30.77 million, and the economic value created accounted for 25.7% of the national GDP. The SEA Europe Annual Report also showed that the EU countries’ maritime economies generated a total value added of up to EUR 180 billion per year in 2018–2019. In recent years, China’s port industry has developed rapidly, and with the improvement of public transportation infrastructure such as waterways, railways, and highways, the economic hinterland of ports has gradually expanded to inland areas, neighboring countries, and even the world [2]. The proposal of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road strategy further enhances the leading role of ports in urban economic development [3]. Xiamen Port is a major port on the southeastern coast of China and an important node in the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road strategy, which plays an increasingly important role in the urban economy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the contribution of Xiamen Port to the urban economy. The research could be expanded to other port cities. This will help clarify the role and positioning of the port cities along the Maritime Silk Road and have reference value for the development of the world’s port cities.

The input–output model was developed by American economist Wassily Leontief based on the notion of economic activity interdependence in the 1930s, and he published the first input–output table for the American economy [4]. It is a commonly used method to quantify the contribution of different industries to the regional economy. For example, Munjal [5] quantified the impact of Indian tourism on other industries based on the input–output table method and multiplier analysis and analyzed its economic contribution to the country. Based on a regional input–output analysis, Tohmo [6] calculated the impact of tourism on output, demand, wages, employment, and national and regional taxation in central Finland. Choi et al. [7], based on China’s input–output data in 2012 and 2017, combined with sensitivity comparison analysis, analyzed the economic effects of China’s distribution industry. Morrissey and O’Donoghue [8] used an input–output approach to examine the productive effects of the Irish marine sector on the national economy. Garza-Gil et al. [9] used an input–output model to quantify the socioeconomic impact of fisheries and aquaculture on the Galicia region. Lee and Yoo [10] used the input–output method to study the role of rail, road, water, and air transport in the South Korean national economy. Chen et al. [11] used the input–output method to analyze the indirect economic impact of the air transportation industry on the local economy of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. Dimitrios and Maria [12] evaluated the socio-economic impact of air transport on the national economy using the input–output method and applied it to Greece to prove that air transportation is essential to the national economy.

For the port and maritime industry, the input–output method is also frequently used. Kwak et al. [13] studied the economic impact of the Korean maritime industry and found that the maritime industry has a low forward linkage effect, a high backward linkage effect, a high production-inducing effect, a low supply shortage cost, a low pervasive effect on price changes, and a high employment-inducing effect. Morrissey and O’Donoghue [14] studied the interrelationship between the port industry and other industries through the input–output method and assessed its economic impact. Chang et al. [15] converted a rectangular supply and use table system of national accounts to a traditional square symmetric matrix type system and estimated the impact of the port sector on the South African economy. Wang and Wang [16] regarded the port industry as exogenous and evaluated the economic impact of China’s port industry from 1987 to 2012 based on the input–output method.

In addition, some studies also use other methods to quantify the economic impact of ports. Bichou [17] clarified three main methods for assessing the economic impact of ports: the computable general equilibrium model (CGE), the gravity model, and the input–output model. Wilson et al. [18] applied a gravity model to analyze the relationship between trade facilitation, trade flows, and economic development in the goods sector in the Asia-Pacific region. Deng et al. [19] used structural equation modeling to study the relationship between ports and regional economies from the perspective of logistics.

The port and shipping industry brings negative externalities to the surrounding population and environment while making economic contributions [20]. In the process of consuming fuel oil, the main engine, auxiliary engine, and boiler of a ship produce harmful gases. These gases are major sources of air pollution and greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change [21,22]. It has been found that air pollution near ports is particularly serious [23]. Therefore, while promoting the development of ports and the shipping industry, the impact on the environment cannot be ignored.

The above studies evaluated the economic contribution of ports from different perspectives and proved their important role in the national economy. In different methods, the input–output method can better analyze the quantitative dependencies between the production and consumption of products across sectors, thereby assessing direct, indirect, and ripple impacts [24]. Therefore, this paper uses the input–output method to estimate the economic contribution of the Xiamen Port industry. Then, a more detailed index system to evaluate the economic contribution is constructed. In addition, this paper will use the time series ARIMA model to reasonably predict the port throughput, providing an effective reference for port management and urban planning.

The paper is structured as follows. In Section 2, the research method is introduced. Section 3 conducts an empirical analysis; calculates the direct, indirect, and ripple economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city; and constructs a more detailed index system to evaluate the economic contribution. In Section 4, we use the ARIMA model to predict the cargo and container throughput of Xiamen Port in the next four years. In Section 5, some suggestions are put forward for the development of Xiamen Port. Finally, the conclusions are provided in Section 6.

2. Research Method

According to the relationship between economic activities and ports, the total economic contribution of ports to cities is divided into direct economic contribution, indirect economic contribution, and ripple economic contribution. This paper will analyze based on these three aspects. Figure 1 shows the technical roadmap for measuring the economic contribution of a port to a city.

The direct economic contribution of a port is mainly based on a large amount of data collection, investigation, and calculation of the relevant proportion of the relevant economic activities of the port, so as to calculate the direct contribution of the relevant economic activities of the port to the urban economy.

The indirect economic contribution of a port is mainly calculated with the input–output model. The enterprises and organizations related to the economic activities of the port are investigated, and a large number of relevant data are collected. Based on the analysis of the input–output table of Xiamen City, the port industry is separated from the transportation and storage industry, and the input–output model related to the port is established. Then, the model is used to calculate the relevant economic coefficients of the port industry and other national economic industries. Finally, we can estimate the indirect economic contribution of the port to the city.

The ripple economic contribution generated by the employees of the direct and indirect economic contribution departments of a port through consumption is mainly measured according to the economic principle of consumption multiplier.

The input–output table directly and vividly reflects the source of intermediate input and the distribution of intermediate output in various departments of the national economic system. The parameters involved are described below.

$x_{ij}$ is the quantity of the input product of the $i$ sector that needs to be consumed by the output of the $j$ sector; $X_j$ is the total output of the $j$ sector; $g_j$ is the GDP value added of the $j$ sector. $v_j$ is the labor remuneration of the $j$ department; $m_j$ is the net production tax of the $j$ department. $d_j$ is the value of the fixed assets consumed by the $j$ department in the production process, which is the depreciation of fixed assets. $r_j$ is the business balance of the $j$ department. $y_j$ is the final use of the $j$ department.

According to the input–output table, some matrices can be directly obtained.

(1) Direct consumption matrix $A$: $a_{ij}=\frac{x_{ij}}{X_j}$,$\left(i,j=1,2,\cdots ,n\right)$, refers to the quantity of products of department $i$ directly consumed by the products of department $j$ of the production unit.

(2) Complete consumption matrix $B$: $b_{ij}$ refers to the direct and indirect consumption of the final product of one product, $j$, by another product, $i$, which is the complete consumption. The first round of consumption of a product to another product in the production is direct consumption, the consumption after the first round is indirect consumption, and the sum of direct consumption and indirect consumption is complete consumption. It can be seen from the definition that $B=A+A^2+A^3+\cdots$ converges to ${\left(I-A\right)}^{-1}-I$.

(3) The value-added coefficient matrix $Z$: $Z=\left(z_1,z_2,\cdots z_n\right)$, $z_j=\frac{g_j}{X_j}$,$\left(j=1,2,\cdots ,n\right)$, reflects the contribution of the $j$ sector to GDP by providing a unit of final product.

3. An Empirical Analysis: The Economic Contribution of Xiamen Port to the City

3.1. Current Development Status of Xiamen Port

Xiamen Port, one of the major coastal ports in China, is an important hub of China’s comprehensive transportation system, a container transport trunk port, and an international shipping center, as well as a major port of entry for shipping to Taiwan. Xiamen Port is an important node in the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road strategy. Xiamen city is a node city in the Belt and Road strategy. The study of the contribution of Xiamen Port to the urban economy has implications for other port cities along the Maritime Silk Road.

At present, Xiamen Port consists of nine port areas, including Dongdu, Haicang, Xiang’an, Zhaoyin, Housh, Shima, Gulei, Dongshan, and Zhao’an. Xiamen Port has a convenient collection and distribution network, with highways connected to the provincial road network and the national road network through National Highway 319, National Highway 324, Shenyang–Haikou Expressway, and Xiamen–Chengdu Expressway. The special railway line leading to the wharf front is also connected to the national railway network. The world’s top 20 shipping companies, such as A.P. Moller-Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company S.A, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping, have all set up branches or representative offices in Xiamen Port and have opened container liner routes to major ports in the world. There are 143 container lines in the port, including 87 international lines, 15 domestic feeder lines, 41 domestic trade lines, and 206 weekly flights.

In 2021, the container throughput of Xiamen Port was 12.0464 million TEUs, an increase of 5.6% compared with 2020, ranking it 13th in the world. The cargo throughput reached 228 million tons, an increase of 9.67% compared with 2020. The total investment in fixed assets of water transport was RMB 1.961 billion. The trend of cargo throughput and container throughput for Xiamen Port from 2000 to 2021 is shown in Figure 2.

As can be seen from Figure 2, the cargo throughput of Xiamen Port showed a rapid growth trend before 2014 and slowed down after 2014. The container throughput of Xiamen Port was affected by the financial crisis in 2009, the container throughput decreased slightly, and the container throughput in the rest of the years increased steadily. In addition, with the fully automated terminal of Yuanhai being put into use, the Port of Xiamen is continuing to develop toward containerization. In recent years, the growth rate of container throughput has also been significantly faster than that of cargo throughput.

3.2. Direct Economic Contribution

Direct economic contribution refers to the economic contribution to the regional economy and national economy created by related economic activities of a port, including not only port production, services, port management, and port construction but also the economic contribution created by other economic activities directly related to port production and operation. The direct economic contribution of the port is obtained directly via the investigation of the Xiamen Port and Shipping Service Center. The specific data are shown in

Table 1. Direct economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city in 2017.

Indicator	Total Output	Added Value	Taxes	Wages	Depreciation	Profits
Direct Economic Contribution/10,000 RMB	184.057	123.982	9.439	88.574	6.723	20.925

.

According to the data in Table 1, it can be seen that among the added value of GDP directly contributed by the relevant economic activities of Xiamen Port, taxes account for 8%, profits for 17%, wages for 70%, and depreciation for 5%.

3.3. Indirect Economic Contribution

The indirect contribution of ports is dependent on the economic contribution generated by port-related economic activities that consume products or provide for the production of other national economic sectors in the region. This paper focuses on estimating the indirect contribution of the port to the urban economy with input–output models.

As China’s input–output tables are compiled on a five-year basis, the input–output table for Xiamen in 2017, which is the closest to the research year, is selected. The main coefficients for the reconstructed Xiamen input–output table can reflect the linkages between the port industry and other industries in Xiamen, as well as the position of the port industry in Xiamen’s economic development. The complete consuming coefficient for the port industry refers to the number of products or services in other sectors that need to be completely consumed for each unit provided by the port industry for final use. The complete consuming coefficient matrix of the port industry reflects the connection between the port industry and other sectors.

Table 2. Complete consuming coefficients for the port industry of Xiamen in 2017.

Ranking	Industries	Coefficient
1	Other transport, storage, and postal	0.3205
2	Petroleum, coking products, and processed nuclear fuel products	0.0853
3	Ports	0.0770
4	Finance	0.0444

shows the top four industries in the complete consuming coefficient for Xiamen’s port industry to other industries in 2017.

Table 2 shows that the transportation equipment manufacturing industry provides technical and equipment support for the port industry; the financial and insurance industry provides financial services and insurance services for the port industry; and petroleum and coking products provide power for the port industry. As a branch of waterway transportation, the port industry has close links to other transportation, warehousing, and postal industries. The abovementioned industries are closely related to the port industry, so the complete consumption coefficient of the port industry to these industries is relatively large.

The influence coefficient is another important coefficient in the input–output model. The influence coefficient for the port industry reflects the degree of the ripple effect of demand on various sectors in the national economy when one unit of final use is added to the port industry.

Table 3. The influence coefficients of Xiamen Port industry and three major industries in 2017.

Industrial Category	The Primary Industry	The Secondary Industry	The Tertiary Industry	The Port Industry
Influence coefficient	0.7437	0.9971	1.0224	1.7227

shows the influence coefficients of Xiamen’s port industry and three other major industries in 2017.

It can be seen that the reaction coefficient of the port industry is higher than the social average and much higher than that of the primary and secondary industries. It indicates that the port industry in Xiamen has a quite high demand as an intermediate input to other industries and also illustrates the enormous role that the port of Xiamen plays in the production of other sectors of the national economy in Xiamen City. The port industry, as an intermediate input to other industries, had a smaller proportion in 2017 due to the rapid development of air and road transportation, as well as rail transportation. However, the Port of Xiamen still has a pretty large advantage in the social average reaction coefficient. That is, 1.7227 means that the reaction coefficient for the Port of Xiamen is approximately 70% higher than the social average reaction coefficient.

The development of the port industry has led to an expanding need for intermediate inputs in its production, which, in turn, has contributed to the expansion of production in the production sectors of related products, bringing benefits to these sectors as a backward ripple effect. The expansion of production in these sectors further generates their respective needs for intermediates, which, consequently, prompts the expansion of production in other sectors. The relationship between the port industry and these sectors that provide the intermediate products required for transportation and production is known as the backward ripple effect of the port industry. The sum of the ripple effects resulting from the need for products from other sectors as their intermediate inputs is called the ‘‘backward ripple effect’’. The ‘‘backward ripple effects’’ of the port industry are expressed in terms of the GDP added value indirectly created by the backward linkages between the port industry and those productive sectors that act as intermediate inputs to the port industry. The calculation formula is expressed as

$$b_k=Z^{T}B\Delta X$$

(1)

where $b_k$ is the backward ripple effect. $Z$ is value added coefficient matrix. $B$ is the complete consuming coefficient matrix. $\Delta X={\left[0,\cdots ,\Delta {\mathrm{x}}_k,\cdots ,0\right]}^T$ is the value-added vector of the output value of each department. Only the direct benefit of the port industry, $k$, is considered here, so the increment of the output value of other departments is zero.

In the input–output model, the backward ripple effect is regarded as the indirect economic contribution of the port industry to the city.

Table 4. Indirect economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city in 2017.

Indicator	Workers’ Compensation	Net Production Tax	Fixed Depreciation	Wages	Operating Surplus	Value Added
Indirect Economic Contribution/10,000 RMB	368,985.419	112,416.9	149,410.8	299,481.5	930,232.5	368,985.419

shows the indirect contribution of Xiamen Port to the urban economy in 2017.

3.4. The Ripple Economic Contribution

The ripple economic contribution refers to the subsequent rounds of contributions to other national economic sectors due to the wage consumption of employees in the direct and indirect economic activities of the port. Keynesian multiplier theory is used to measure the ripple contribution. First, we need to calculate the marginal propensity to consume. The calculation formula is expressed as

$$c=\frac{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_i{y}_i}{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_j{g}_i}(0< c<1)$$

(2)

Based on the Xiamen input–output table, we can obtain the calculation result $c$ = 0.5255. The ripple economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the urban economy in 2017 is shown in

Table 5. Ripple economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city in 2017.

Indicator	Workers’ Compensation	Net Production Tax	Fixed Depreciation	Operating Surplus	Value Added	Total Output
Ripple Economic Contribution/10,000 RMB	1,389,585.26	229,034.86	239,925.75	563,410.74	2,403,293.07	4,943,296.18

.

3.5. The Total Economic Contribution

Based on the above calculation, the total economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city can be obtained from the following formula:

$$E=E_b+E_d+E_c$$

(3)

where $E$ is the total economic contribution of the port to the city. $E_d$ is the direct contribution of the port to the urban economy. $E_b$ is the indirect contribution of the port to the urban economy. $E_c$ is the ripple contribution of the port to the urban economy.

The total contribution of Xiamen Port to the urban economy in 2017 is shown in

Table 6. Total economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city in 2017.

Indicator	Workers’ Compensation	Net Production tax	Fixed Depreciation	Operating Surplus	Value Added	Total Output
Total Economic Contribution/10,000 RMB	2,644,310.68	435,841.80	456,566.60	1,072,142.23	4,573,345.52	9,406,843.35

.

The total GDP contribution of Xiamen Port to the city in 2017 was RMB 45.73 billion, accounting for 10.48% of Xiamen’s GDP. As for the composition of the contribution, the direct GDP contribution was RMB 12.398.2 million, accounting for 2.84%; the indirect GDP contribution was RMB 9.302 billion, accounting for 2.13%; and the ripple GDP contribution was RMB 24.029 billion, accounting for 5.51%. It can be seen that Xiamen’s port industry has played a supporting and driving role in the economic development of Xiamen.

In conjunction with national economic statistics standards, the core evaluation indicators of contribution identified in this research include total output, value-added, labor remuneration, taxes paid, operating surplus, depreciation of fixed assets, and employment. At the same time, in order to further evaluate the macro-indicators, such as resources, throughput, GDP formation, and GDP per capita contribution of the whole port, we also determine five important indicators, including total output, GDP added value, labor remuneration, and taxes paid, as well as employment, and further subdivide them into five aspects, namely, throughput contribution rate, shoreline resources contribution rate, GDP per employee, GDP formation rate, and economic contribution multiplier. The 28 indicators further derived are shown in Figure 3.

As for the contribution of GDP, the GDP formation rate of the port can be calculated with the following formulas:

$$W_D=C_D/O_D$$

(4)

$$W_I=C_I/O_I$$

(5)

$$W_S=C_S/O_S$$

(6)

where $W_D$ is the direct contribution to the GDP formation rate, $C_D$ is the direct contribution to GDP, and $O_D$ is the direct total output contribution. $W_I$ is the indirect contribution to GDP formation rate, $C_I$ is the indirect contribution to GDP, and $O_I$ is the indirect total output contribution. $W_S$ is the ripple contribution to GDP formation rate, $C_S$ is the ripple contribution to GDP, and $O_S$ is the ripple contribution to total output.

The economic contribution multiplier is divided into multiplier I ($M_1$), multiplier II ($M_2$), and multiplier III ($M_3$), and it is calculated by the relevant economic indicators of the port according to the following equations:

$$M_1=C_I/C_D$$

(7)

$$M_2=C_S/C_D$$

(8)

$$M_3=C_T/C_D$$

(9)

where $C_T$ is the total contribution of the port to GDP.

As for the contribution to employment opportunities, it is necessary to divide the industry first. The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery products, as well as service sectors in the input–output table (42 sectors), are classified as primary industries; a total of 26 sectors from the coal industry to the construction industry in the input–output table are combined as secondary industries; and the remaining 15 sectors are consolidated as tertiary industries.

The rest of the contribution indicators are calculated according to the following equation:

$${\mathrm{T}}_i=R_i/P_i$$

(10)

where ${\mathrm{T}}_i$ is the contribution indicator; $R_i$ is the contribution value; and $P_i$ is the statistical indicator, such as port resources, cargo throughput, and container throughput.

4. Forecast of Cargo and Container Throughputs of Xiamen Port

Since an input–output table has not been released after 2017, the forecast of cargo throughput and container throughput for Xiamen Port can better analyze the development trend of Xiamen’s port industry. In general, it is predicted using linear regression, exponential smoothing, time series models, and other methods, which are usually based on the change trend in the port’s past throughput data. The ARIMA model is a more effective model to predict the development trend of time series. It has the characteristics of high prediction accuracy and simple operation, and it is suitable for short-term prediction. It is the most common method in statistical models. The model considers the data it predicts as a random sequence, which can be predicted and described by a mathematical model where each observation is interpreted as a linear function of its past value, with an additional error term [25].

In this paper, the cargo throughput and container throughput data of Xiamen Port from 2000 to 2021 are selected to forecast the corresponding data from 2022 to 2025 using the time series ARIMA model.

The time series ARIMA model forecasting steps are as follows [26,27,28].

(1) Data preprocessing. The data predicted by the ARIMA model must be a stationary series. Therefore, the cargo throughput and container throughput data of Xiamen Port need to be differenced and tested with the ADF (square root test) method. It is finally determined that the data are stable when the differential times of cargo throughput data are 2; when the differential times of container throughput data are 4, the data are steady.

(2) Model identification. The autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function are calculated separately for the differentially processed data to identify the order of the ARIMA model. We calculated that the order of AR (autoregressive model) and MA (moving average model) for cargo throughput data is 1; the order of AR for container throughput data is 1, and that of MA is 2. Therefore, the prediction model for the cargo throughput of Xiamen Port is determined as ARIMA(1,2,1), and the model for forecasting the container throughput of Xiamen Port is ARIMA(1,4,2).

(3) Throughput forecasting. The ARIMA model determined in the second step is used to make predictions. The cargo throughput of Xiamen Port from 2022 to 2025 is 230.261, 238.788, 245.606, and 253.143 million tons; the container throughput of Xiamen Port from 2022 to 2025 is 12.598, 13.166, 13.735, and 14.309 million TEU. The forecast results are shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5.

(4) Model parameter testing. After residual testing, the p-values for ARIMA(1,4,2) and ARIMA(1,2,1) are 0.9 and 0.99, respectively, so the prediction models are valid.

It is indicated from the forecast data of the cargo throughput and container throughput of Xiamen Port that the cargo throughput and container throughput of the port of Xiamen will maintain continuous growth in the next four years, and the growth rate of container throughput is higher than that of the cargo throughput due to the development of the global maritime market toward containerization. Additionally, more ships are calling on Xiamen Port with the commissioning of the fully automated Xiamen Ocean Gate Terminal and the improvement of container-handling efficiency.

5. Discussion

Xiamen Port has relatively good conditions of its own and resources. Only by strengthening the infrastructure of the port, expanding the production scale of Xiamen Port, optimizing the collection and distribution network in and out of the port, etc., can it gain an advantage in the competition. However, the development and construction of the port itself require the support of a large number of industries related to port production, such as wharf construction, handling and storage, port machinery manufacturing, and all other industries that directly and indirectly serve port production. Furthermore, the development of the port can drive the development of these industries, which can boost the development of the whole industry, and the development of the entire industry can promote the upgrading and transformation of Xiamen, thus enabling the city to develop and grow at a high speed.

In 2021, the Xiamen government issued the Implementation Plan for the Construction of Xiamen Port based on the National Logistics Hub. Xiamen Port should strive for relevant policy support that has an important impact on its own strategic development. For example, Xiamen Port should strive for a stronger tax refund policy at the port of departure to develop cargo transshipment and state policies that grant Xiamen the same port for domestic and foreign trade and the duty-free registration of international shipping ships.

The construction of the fully automated terminal at Xiamen Port has opened up an efficient and convenient channel for Xiamen to join the global competition, driven the rapid development of related industries such as port financial and technology industries, and expanded the economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city. At the same time, the construction of the automated terminal has enabled some of the terminal staff to be diverted, transferred, and retrained on the job, allowing them to grasp more skills. More university students and postgraduates will also be recruited into the terminal so as to optimize human resources, which is in line with Xiamen’s development strategy of introducing talent and benefits to the city’s development.

The Port of Xiamen needs to strengthen the integration of data with the support of Xiamen City, create a network information platform, and facilitate the development of port informatization, as well as promote the application of cloud computing, big data, intelligent perception, GIS, VR/AR, and other technologies in port and shipping production in five aspects, that is, smart government, smart port, smart logistics, smart shipping, and smart business innovation through the integration and penetration of new-generation information technologies, such as mobile Internet, cloud computing, big data, and Internet of Things, with traditional port and shipping business. These new information technologies can not only improve the overall operational efficiency of Xiamen Port, shorten customs clearance time, and reduce the operating costs of enterprises, the port, etc., but will also benefit the informatization development of Xiamen, which is in accordance with the overall development strategy of Xiamen City and conforms to the development trend of the current era. In addition, Xiamen Port should also actively develop alliances and cooperate with logistics enterprises, shipping companies, highways, and the railway sector; develop a number of logistics enterprises, logistics parks, and distribution centers with economic strength and competitiveness through market operation, mergers and acquisitions, equity mergers; and investments; and strengthen vertical cooperation with customs, maritime affairs, etc., to improve the efficiency of logistics operations. Cooperation with customs and maritime affairs is also essential to improve the efficiency of logistics operations.

6. Conclusions

In this paper, the input–output model and multiplier theory are used to calculate the economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city in the context of the current situation of port development. The total economic contribution is divided into direct, indirect, and ripple economic contributions. We also construct a more detailed index system to evaluate the economic contribution. Then, we use the ARIMA model to predict the future trend of cargo throughput and container throughput for Xiamen Port. Finally, according to the development status and trend of Xiamen Port, some development suggestions are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows.

The contribution of Xiamen Port to the city is in line with the growth pole theory in the theory of urban economic growth, which not only allows for rapid growth in Xiamen Port itself but also drives the development of the entire region through the multiplier effect. The development and input of the port make a significant contribution to various aspects of the entire region, not only in terms of transportation and resource concentration, but also in regional economic development and improvement on an urban industrial level. The total economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city in 2017 accounted for 10.48% of the city’s GDP, indicating that Xiamen Port is the major engine of Xiamen’s GDP growth as well as an integral part of the promotion of Xiamen’s economic development.

The cargo throughput and container throughput of Xiamen Port will maintain continuous growth in the next four years. The growth rate of container throughput is higher than that of cargo throughput due to the development of the global maritime market toward containerization. Based on the development status of Xiamen Port, this paper puts forward that Xiamen Port needs to strengthen port infrastructure construction, expand production scale, optimize its distribution network, and so on. It is also necessary to accelerate the construction of fully automated terminals, which will help improve the overall operational efficiency of ports. In addition, Xiamen Port should rely on the city to strengthen data fusion and promote the development of port informatization.

In conclusion, Xiamen Port needs to build some urban infrastructure that matches the needs of the port as well as the port and shipping industry; expand its economic hinterland; promote regional logistics cooperation; integrate sea, land, and air transportation hubs, etc. The continuously increasing attention and investment in the development of Xiamen Port will enable it to lead the overall economic development of Xiamen city, respond to the Belt and Road strategy, and make Xiamen the most competitive sea gate on the Maritime Silk Road in the 21st century.