Forecasting, Volume 6, Issue 2 (June 2024) – 3 articles

Since cryptocurrencies are among the most extensively traded financial instruments globally, predicting their price has become a crucial topic for investors. Our dataset, which includes fluctuations in Bitcoin’s hourly prices from 15 May 2018 to 19 January 2024, was gathered from Crypto Data Download. It is made up of over 50,000 hourly data points that provide a detailed view of the price behavior of Bitcoin over a five-year period. In this study, we used potent algorithms, including gradient descent, attention mechanisms, long short-term memory (LSTM), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Furthermore, to estimate the price of Bitcoin, we first merged two deep learning algorithms, LSTM and attention mechanisms, and then combined LSTM-Attention with gradient-specific optimization to increase our model’s performance. Then we integrated ANN-LSTM and included gradient-specific optimization for the same reason. Our results show that the hybrid model with gradient-specific optimization can be used to anticipate Bitcoin values with better accuracy. Indeed, the hybrid model combines the best features of both approaches, and gradient-specific optimization improves predictive performance through frequent analysis of pricing data changes. Full article

All-Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) are popular off-road vehicles in the United States, with a staggering 10.5 million households reported to own at least one ATV. Despite their popularity, ATVs pose a significant risk of severe injuries, leading to substantial healthcare expenses and raising public health concerns. As such, gaining insights into the patterns of ATV-related hospitalizations and accurately predicting these injuries is of paramount importance. This knowledge can guide the development of effective prevention strategies, ultimately mitigating ATV-related injuries and the associated healthcare costs. Therefore, we performed an in-depth analysis of ATV-related hospitalizations from 2010 to 2021. Furthermore, we developed and assessed the performance of three forecasting models—Neural Prophet, SARIMA, and LSTM—to predict ATV-related injuries. The performance of these models was evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) accuracy metric. As a result, the LSTM model outperformed the others and could be used to provide valuable insights that can aid in strategic planning and resource allocation within healthcare systems. In addition, our findings highlight the urgent need for prevention programs that are specifically targeted toward youth and timed for the summer season. Full article

The scheduled maintenance of industrial equipment is usually performed with a low frequency, as it usually leads to unpredicted downtime in business operations. Nevertheless, this confers a risk of failure in individual modules of the equipment, which may diminish its performance or even lead to its breakdown, rendering it non-operational. Lately, predictive maintenance methods have been considered for industrial systems, such as power generation stations, as a proactive measure for preventing failures. Such methods use data gathered from industrial equipment and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to identify data patterns that indicate anomalies and may lead to potential failures. However, industrial equipment exhibits specific behavior and interactions that originate from its configuration from the manufacturer and the system that is installed, which constitutes a great challenge for the effectiveness of ML model maintenance and failure predictions. In this article, we propose a novel method for tackling this challenge based on the development of a digital twin for industrial equipment known as a Remote Terminal Unit (RTU). RTUs are used in electrical systems to provide the remote monitoring and control of critical equipment, such as power generators. The method is applied in an RTU that is connected to a real power generator within a Public Power Corporation (PPC) facility, where operational anomalies are forecasted based on measurements of its processing power, operating temperature, voltage, and storage memory. Full article