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Article

Spatially Refined Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers of COVID-19 by Health District in Georgia, USA, March–December 2020

1
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA 30460, USA
2
Department of Geography, AddRan College of Liberal Arts, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX 76109, USA
3
Department of Health Policy and Community Health, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA 30460, USA
4
Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These coauthors serve as co-first authors.
Academic Editor: Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra
Received: 28 November 2020 / Revised: 17 May 2021 / Accepted: 25 May 2021 / Published: 28 May 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evolving COVID-19 Epidemiology and Dynamics)
This study quantifies the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 across public health districts in Georgia, USA, and tests if per capita cumulative case count varies across counties. To estimate the time-varying reproduction number, Rt of SARS-CoV-2 in Georgia and its 18 public health districts, we apply the R package ‘EpiEstim’ to the time series of historical daily incidence of confirmed cases, 2 March–15 December 2020. The epidemic curve is shifted backward by nine days to account for the incubation period and delay to testing. Linear regression is performed between log10-transformed per capita cumulative case count and log10-transformed population size. We observe Rt fluctuations as state and countywide policies are implemented. Policy changes are associated with increases or decreases at different time points. Rt increases, following the reopening of schools for in-person instruction in August. Evidence suggests that counties with lower population size had a higher per capita cumulative case count on June 15 (slope = −0.10, p = 0.04) and October 15 (slope = −0.05, p = 0.03), but not on August 15 (slope = −0.04, p = 0.09), nor December 15 (slope = −0.02, p = 0.41). We found extensive community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across all 18 health districts in Georgia with median 7-day-sliding window Rt estimates between 1 and 1.4 after March 2020. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; daily incidence; reproduction number; Georgia COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; daily incidence; reproduction number; Georgia
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ogwara, C.A.; Mallhi, A.K.; Hua, X.; Muniz-Rodriguez, K.; Schwind, J.S.; Zhou, X.; Jones, J.A.; Chopak-Foss, J.; Chowell, G.; Fung, I.C.-H. Spatially Refined Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers of COVID-19 by Health District in Georgia, USA, March–December 2020. Epidemiologia 2021, 2, 179-197. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020014

AMA Style

Ogwara CA, Mallhi AK, Hua X, Muniz-Rodriguez K, Schwind JS, Zhou X, Jones JA, Chopak-Foss J, Chowell G, Fung IC-H. Spatially Refined Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers of COVID-19 by Health District in Georgia, USA, March–December 2020. Epidemiologia. 2021; 2(2):179-197. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020014

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ogwara, Chigozie A., Arshpreet K. Mallhi, Xinyi Hua, Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez, Jessica S. Schwind, Xiaolu Zhou, Jeffery A. Jones, Joanne Chopak-Foss, Gerardo Chowell, and Isaac C.-H. Fung 2021. "Spatially Refined Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers of COVID-19 by Health District in Georgia, USA, March–December 2020" Epidemiologia 2, no. 2: 179-197. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020014

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