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Geosciences
Special Issues
Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Risk Mitigation
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Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Risk Mitigation

A special issue of Geosciences (ISSN 2076-3263). This special issue belongs to the section "Natural Hazards".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2023) | Viewed by 12078

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Milad Kowsari

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, 102 Reykjavik, Iceland
Interests: engineering seismology; seismic hazard assessment; ground motion modelling; machine learning; Bayesian statistics
Dr. Aybige Akinci

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, 00143 Roma, Italy
Interests: seismology; probabilistic seismic hazard assessments; earthquake ground motion; seismic wave attenuation

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

I am happy to invite you to contribute an original research paper to an upcoming Special Issue on the "Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Risk Mitigation". Seismic hazard assessment is the international standard practice for the optimized earthquake-resistant design of structures and mitigation of seismic risk. Its importance has increased significantly because of the social attention to emergency and safety services as well as administrative policies for crisis management. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) has become the standard practice for seismic risk reduction and is used to quantify the probability of levels of ground motion parameters being exceeded over a specified time period at any given location considering the different sources of uncertainties.

This Special Issue invites contributions from a broad range of research or case studies, focused on seismic hazard assessment and earthquake risk mitigation. In this regard, I encourage submissions related to, but not limited to, the robust and quantitative quality control of the key elements for a reliable seismic hazard assessment such as: the earthquake source models, physics-based seismicity models, ground motion models, site response characterization, and the corresponding uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of seismic hazard. This Special Issue also welcomes the incorporation of machine learning techniques and advanced statistical methods (e.g., Bayesian statistics) into aspects of seismic hazard and risk assessments. Moreover, topics on operational earthquake forecasting and induced seismicity are also welcomed.

Dr. Milad Kowsari
Dr. Aybige Akinci
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Geosciences is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA)
  • seismic risk assessment
  • earthquake source modelling and seismic wave propagation
  • physics-based seismicity models
  • ground motion models (GMMs)
  • site response characterization
  • sensitivity and uncertainty analyses
  • operational earthquake forecasting
  • hazard assessment for induced seismicity

Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 3102 KiB  
Article
When the Past Teaches the Future: Earthquake and Tsunami Risk Reduction through Episodes of Situated Learning (ESL)
by Giovanna Lucia Piangiamore and Alessandra Maramai
Geosciences 2024, 14(3), 65; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences14030065 - 26 Feb 2024
Viewed by 1003
Abstract
The past offers important lessons with regard to facing the future with greater awareness. In this context, school plays a key role in spreading knowledge of natural phenomena and in promoting behavior change. Together with researchers, teachers can be strong allies to build [...] Read more.
The past offers important lessons with regard to facing the future with greater awareness. In this context, school plays a key role in spreading knowledge of natural phenomena and in promoting behavior change. Together with researchers, teachers can be strong allies to build more resilient future citizens. The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) school training activities provide tools to prepare for the next earthquake and/or tsunami. Approximately 5000 students, from both middle schools (ISCED 2) and high schools (ISCED 3), were involved in active learning activities based on a flipped-up approach during specific online scientific events during the pandemic. Online lab activities were conducted during European Researchers’ Night (“Earthquakes: history teaches us the future: researchers for a day with experimentation in didactics for ESL”) and during both World Water Day 2021 and World Earth Day 2021 (“Tsunamis: history teaches us the future researchers for a day with experimentation in didactics for ESL”). These two Episodes of Situated Learning (ESL) experiences triggered students’ interest, favoring remote learning, developing life skills, and focusing on historical seismic studies of both past earthquakes and tsunamis. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Risk Mitigation)
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25 pages, 7187 KiB  
Article
Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation
by Christos Kourouklas, Eleftheria Papadimitriou and Vasileios Karakostas
Geosciences 2023, 13(10), 295; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences13100295 - 28 Sep 2023
Viewed by 1237
Abstract
An effort is exerted to investigate the recurrence pattern of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.0) in the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece, by considering the incorporation of the 74-year (1948–2022) evolving stress field. Four earthquake occurrence models—the Poisson, Poisson with [...] Read more.
An effort is exerted to investigate the recurrence pattern of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.0) in the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece, by considering the incorporation of the 74-year (1948–2022) evolving stress field. Four earthquake occurrence models—the Poisson, Poisson with the incorporation of the static stress changes (Poisson + ΔCFF), Brownian passage time (BPT) and Brownian passage time with the incorporation of the static stress changes (BPT + ΔCFF)—have been applied to estimate the occurrence probabilities of nearly characteristic earthquakes for the seven fault segments of the study area. The mean recurrence time, Tr, is estimated using the physics-based seismic moment rate conservation method. The results show large variability depending upon fault parameters. Incorporating the state of stress into Tr results in both advanced and delayed recurrence patterns. The occurrence probability estimates for the next 10, 20 and 30 years indicate that the fault segment most likely to be ruptured is the Paliki North fault segment in all models. Overall, the occurrence probabilities, combined with the state of stress along the fault segments, emphasize the high seismic moment rate of the study area. The application of time-dependent models (BPT, BPT + ΔCFF) resulted in significant increases or decreases in the associated seismic hazard. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Risk Mitigation)
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17 pages, 12742 KiB  
Article
Vs30 Mapping of the Greater Montreal Region Using Multiple Data Sources
by Philippe Rosset, Adil Takahashi and Luc Chouinard
Geosciences 2023, 13(9), 256; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences13090256 - 23 Aug 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1135
Abstract
The metropolitan community of Montreal (MMC) is located in Eastern Canada and included in the western Quebec seismic zone characterized by shallow crustal earthquakes and moderate seismicity. Most of the urbanized areas are settled close to the Saint-Lawrence River and its tributaries and [...] Read more.
The metropolitan community of Montreal (MMC) is located in Eastern Canada and included in the western Quebec seismic zone characterized by shallow crustal earthquakes and moderate seismicity. Most of the urbanized areas are settled close to the Saint-Lawrence River and its tributaries and within the region, delimiting the extension of the clay deposits from the Champlain Sea. The influence of these recent and soft deposits on seismic waves has been observed after the 1988 M5.8 Saguenay earthquake and has proven to be crucial in seismic hazard analysis. The shear-wave velocity Vs averaged over the 30 m of soil, abbreviated Vs30, is one of the most used parameters to characterize the site condition and its influence on seismic waves. Since 2000, a site condition model has been developed for the municipalities of Montreal and Laval, combining seismic and borehole data for risk mitigation purposes. The paper presents an extended version of the Vs30 mapping for the entire region of the MMC, which accounts for half of the population of Quebec, including additional ambient noise recordings, recently updated borehole datasets, geological vector map and unpublished seismic refraction data to derive Vs profiles. The estimated Vs30 values for thousands of sites are then interpolated on a regular grid of 0.01 degrees using the inverse distance weighted interpolation approach. Regions with the lowest estimated Vs30 values where site amplification could be expected on seismic waves are in the Northeastern part and in the Southwest of the MMC. The map expresses in terms of site classes is compared with intensity values derived from citizen observations after recent felt. In general, the highest reported intensity values are found in regions with the lowest Vs30 values on the map. Areas where this rule does not apply, should be investigated further. This site condition model can be used in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Risk Mitigation)
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38 pages, 12120 KiB  
Article
New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model for Nepal Himalayas by Integrating Distributed Seismicity and Major Thrust Faults
by Saroj Maharjan, Antoine Poujol, Christophe Martin, Gabriele Ameri, David Baumont, Kiana Hashemi, Yacine Benjelloun and Hussein Shible
Geosciences 2023, 13(8), 220; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences13080220 - 25 Jul 2023
Viewed by 2223
Abstract
Nepal is one of the most seismically active regions in the world, as highlighted by the recent devastating 2015, Mw~7.8 Gorkha earthquake, and a robust assessment of seismic hazard is paramount for the design of earthquake-resistant structures. In this study, we [...] Read more.
Nepal is one of the most seismically active regions in the world, as highlighted by the recent devastating 2015, Mw~7.8 Gorkha earthquake, and a robust assessment of seismic hazard is paramount for the design of earthquake-resistant structures. In this study, we present a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Nepal. We considered data and findings from recent scientific publications, which allowed us to develop a unified magnitude homogenized seismicity catalog and propose alternative seismic source characterization (SSC) models including up-to-date parameters of major thrust faults like main frontal thrust (MFT) and main boundary thrust (MBT), while also considering existing SSC models and various seismic hazard modeling strategies within a logic tree framework. The sensitivity analyses show the seismic hazard levels are generally higher for SSC models integrating the major thrust faults, followed by homogenous volume sources and smoothed seismicity approach. The seismic hazard maps covering the entirety of Nepal are presented as well as the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for five selected locations (Kathmandu, Pokhara, Biratnagar, Nepalganj, and Dipayal) at return periods of 475- and 2475-years considering Vs,30 = 760 m/s. The results obtained are generally consistent with most recent studies. However, a notable variability in seismic hazard levels and several discrepancies with respect to the Nepal Building Building Code NBC105: 2020 and global hazard model, GEM are noted, and possible causes are discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Risk Mitigation)
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25 pages, 5741 KiB  
Article
Development in Fuzzy Logic-Based Rapid Visual Screening Method for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Buildings
by Nurullah Bektaş and Orsolya Kegyes-Brassai
Geosciences 2023, 13(1), 6; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences13010006 - 26 Dec 2022
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3081
Abstract
In order to prevent possible loss of life and property, existing building stocks need to be assessed before an impending earthquake. Beyond the examination of large building stocks, rapid evaluation methods are required because the evaluation of even one building utilizing detailed vulnerability [...] Read more.
In order to prevent possible loss of life and property, existing building stocks need to be assessed before an impending earthquake. Beyond the examination of large building stocks, rapid evaluation methods are required because the evaluation of even one building utilizing detailed vulnerability assessment methods is computationally expensive. Rapid visual screening (RVS) methods are used to screen and classify existing buildings in large building stocks in earthquake-prone zones prior to or after a catastrophic earthquake. Buildings are assessed using RVS procedures that take into consideration the distinctive features (such as irregularity, construction year, construction quality, and soil type) of each building, which each need to be considered separately. Substantially, studies have been presented to enhance conventional RVS methods in terms of truly identifying building safety levels by using computer algorithms (such as machine learning, fuzzy logic, and neural networks). This study outlines the background research that was conducted in order to establish the parameters for the development of a fuzzy logic-based soft rapid visual screening (S-RVS) method as an alternative to conventional RVS methods. In this investigation, rules, membership functions, transformation values, and defuzzification procedures were established by examining the data of 40 unreinforced masonries (URM) buildings acquired as a consequence of the 2019 Albania earthquake in order to construct a fuzzy logic-based S-RVS method. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Risk Mitigation)
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20 pages, 3804 KiB  
Article
Investigation of the Factors Controlling the Duration and Productivity of Aftershocks Following Strong Earthquakes in Greece
by Pavlos Bonatis, Vasileios G. Karakostas, Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou and George Kaviris
Geosciences 2022, 12(9), 328; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences12090328 - 30 Aug 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2075
Abstract
Strong crustal earthquakes in Greece are typically followed by aftershocks, the properties of which are important factors in seismic hazard assessment. In order to examine the properties of earthquake sequences, we prepared an earthquake catalog comprising aftershock sequences with mainshocks of Mw [...] Read more.
Strong crustal earthquakes in Greece are typically followed by aftershocks, the properties of which are important factors in seismic hazard assessment. In order to examine the properties of earthquake sequences, we prepared an earthquake catalog comprising aftershock sequences with mainshocks of Mw ≥ 5.5 from 1995 to 2021. Regional aftershock parameters were estimated to highlight variations in aftershock decay and productivity among regions with similar seismotectonic characteristics. A statistically based method of estimating aftershock duration and a metric of relative aftershock productivity to examine the variations among the different cases were employed. From the detailed analysis of the selected seismic sequences, we attempt to unravel the physical mechanisms behind deviations in aftershock duration and productivity and resolve the relative contribution of background seismicity, the Omori–Utsu law parameters and the mainshock faulting properties. From our analysis, the duration of aftershock sequences depends upon the rupture process of the mainshock, independently of its magnitude. The same applies to aftershock productivity, however, other tectonic setting (e.g., seismic coupling) or source-related (e.g., focal depth, stress drop) parameters also contribute. The estimated regional parameters of the aftershock rate models could be utilized as initial ones to forecast the aftershock occurrence rates at the early stage following a mainshock. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Risk Mitigation)
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