Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2020) | Viewed by 34284

Special Issue Editor


E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Laboratoire de L’Atmosphere et des Cyclones, Reunion University, CNRS, Meteo, France
Interests: tropical convection; remote sensing; numerical modeling; application of bio-logging to atmospheric studies

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and high-impact tropical storms are associated with heavy rain and strong winds that often cause devastation in many tropical and subtropical areas. This is particularly true in the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin, a relatively poor region that undergoes cyclonic activity roughly as intense as the North Atlantic basin. During the recent decades, a large number of storms have indeed caused devastation in Mauritius, La Réunion, Madagascar, Mozambique, and other surrounding countries. Recently, TC Enawo and Dineo (2017) caused hundreds of fatalities and created more than 1 million refugees in Madagascar and Mozambique, while TC Idaï, considered to be the worst natural disaster ever in the Mozambique Channel, caused more than 1000 fatalities in Mozambique in April 2019. Monitoring and forecasting tropical cyclones in this part of the world is thus of great importance in order to deliver reliable and early warnings to the affected population.

In the past decades, substantial progress has been achieved in TC track prediction, but advances in intensity forecast (i.e., rain and wind, storm surge, and waves) have been far less satisfying. In particular, anticipating sudden intensity changes still remains a major operational and scientific issue. This may result in part from deficiencies in observing networks but also from a more general lack of understanding of the physical processes that govern TCs (atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic environment, number and intensity of initial perturbations, heat exchange with the upper ocean, and interactions of microphysical, dynamical, and orographic forcing, among others) and their representation in numerical models.

In this Special Issue, authors are invited to submit original and review articles to advance the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones, including tropical cyclogenesis and early stage vortex initiation, from both observational and modeling approaches. Research studies examining tropical cyclones in all ocean basins are welcome, although studies focusing on less studied areas such as the Southwest or North Indian Ocean basins are encouraged.

Prof. Dr. Olivier Bousquet
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • tropical cyclone meteorology and climatology
  • tropical cyclogenesis
  • air–sea interactions
  • rapid intensification
  • Indian Ocean

Published Papers (10 papers)

Order results
Result details
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:

Research

13 pages, 26170 KiB  
Article
The Controlling of the Subtropical High Leading Modes on the Spatial Pattern of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Western North Pacific and Tracks Landing on the East Coast of China
by Tingting Fan, Yuxing Yang and Shibin Xu
Atmosphere 2022, 13(1), 79; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13010079 - 04 Jan 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1472
Abstract
As a prime circulation system, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) significantly impacts tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP), especially TCs landing on the east coast of China; however, the associated mechanism is not firmly established. This study investigates [...] Read more.
As a prime circulation system, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) significantly impacts tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP), especially TCs landing on the east coast of China; however, the associated mechanism is not firmly established. This study investigates the underlying dynamic impact of the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the WPSH on the interannual variability in the genesis and number of TCs landing over the WNP. The results show that these two dominant modes control the WNP TC activity over different subregions via different environmental factors. The first mode (EOF1) affects the TC genesis number over region I (105°–128° E, 5°–30° N) (r = −0.49) and region II (130°–175° E, 17°–30° N) (r = −0.5) and controls the TCs landing on the east coast of China, while the second mode (EOF2) affects the TC genesis number over region III (128°–175° E, 5°–17° N) (r = −0.69). The EOF1 mode, a southwest-northeast-oriented enhanced pattern, causes the WPSH to expand (retreat) along the southwest-northeast direction, which makes both mid-low-level relative humidity and low-level vorticity unfavorable (favorable) for TC genesis in region I and region II and steers fewer (more) TC tracks to land on the coast of China. The EOF2 mode features a strengthened WPSH over the southeast quarter of the WNP region. The active (inactive) phases of this mode control the low-level vorticity and vertical wind shear in region III, which lead to less (more) TC genesis over this region. The prediction equations combining the two modes of the WPSH for the total number of TCs and TCs that make landfall show high correlation coefficients. Our findings verify the high prediction skill of the WPSH on WNP TC activities, provide a new way to predict TCs that will make landfall on the east coast of China, and help to improve the future projection of WNP TC activity. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

20 pages, 9944 KiB  
Article
Seasonal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis and the Related Large-Scale Environments: Comparison between the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Sub-Basins
by Wei Duan, Junpeng Yuan, Xu Duan and Dian Feng
Atmosphere 2021, 12(12), 1593; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12121593 - 29 Nov 2021
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2514
Abstract
Using tropical cyclone data along with sea surface temperature data (SST) and atmospheric circulation reanalysis data during the period of 1980–2019, the seasonal variation of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG), and the related oceanic and atmospheric environments over the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay [...] Read more.
Using tropical cyclone data along with sea surface temperature data (SST) and atmospheric circulation reanalysis data during the period of 1980–2019, the seasonal variation of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG), and the related oceanic and atmospheric environments over the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB) are compared and analyzed in detail. The results show that TCG in both the BOB and AS present bimodal seasonal variations, with two peak periods in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season, respectively. The frequencies of TCG in the BOB and AS are comparatively similar in the pre-monsoon season but significantly different in the post-monsoon season. During the post-monsoon season of October–November, the TCG frequency in the BOB is approximately 2.3 times higher than that of the AS. The vertical wind shear and relative humidity in the low- and middle-level troposphere are the two major contributing factors for TCG, and the combination of these two factors determines the bimodal seasonal cycle of TCG in both the AS and BOB. In the pre-monsoon season, an increase in the positive contribution of vertical wind shear and a decrease in the negative contribution of relative humidity are collaboratively favorable for TCG in the AS and BOB. During the monsoon season, the relative humidity factor shows a significant and positive contribution to TCG, but its positive effect is offset by the strong negative effect of vertical wind shear and potential intensity, thus resulting in very low TCG in the AS and BOB. However, the specific relative contributions of each environmental factor to the TCG variations in the AS and BOB basins are quite different, especially in the post-monsoon season. In the post-monsoon season, the primary positive contributor to TCG in the AS basin is vertical wind shear, while the combined effect of vertical wind shear and relative humidity dominates in the BOB TCG. From the analysis of environmental factors, atmospheric circulations, and genesis potential index (GPI), the BOB is found to have more favorable TCG conditions than the AS, especially in the post-monsoon season. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

15 pages, 9339 KiB  
Article
Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Vertical Wind Shear and Its Relationship with Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Mozambique Channel
by Atanásio João Manhique, Isac Arnaldo Guirrugo, Bernardino João Nhantumbo and Alberto Francisco Mavume
Atmosphere 2021, 12(6), 739; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12060739 - 09 Jun 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2735
Abstract
This article explores the relationship between vertical wind shear (VWS) and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Mozambique Channel (MC) for the period 1979–2019. Additionally, SST, low-level relative vorticity, 700 hPa relative humidity and upper-level divergence were also analyzed for the peak cyclogenesis [...] Read more.
This article explores the relationship between vertical wind shear (VWS) and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Mozambique Channel (MC) for the period 1979–2019. Additionally, SST, low-level relative vorticity, 700 hPa relative humidity and upper-level divergence were also analyzed for the peak cyclogenesis months to explore their relative contributions. The analyses were done using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1 for the atmospheric fields, monthly Optimum Interpolation SST V2, and for the cyclogenesis the TC best track data from the La Reunion–Regional Specialized Meteorological and Joint Typhoon Warning Centre. A total of 43 TCs generated in the MC were observed for the analysed period. The maximum frequency of cyclogenesis in the MC was observed during January and February and the spatial location of maximum TC genesis was coincident with the minimum values of the VWS. The VWS showed significant correlations with TC intensity, particularly when considering the upper atmosphere (200–500 hPa) or the bulk (200–850 hPa) VWS. The mean composites of the cyclogenesis months over the MC of SST, relative humidity at 700 hPa, divergence at upper atmosphere, showed significant values. However, linear correlations between these factors vs. TC genesis frequency and intensity were not significant. Analyses of interannual correlations between VWS and Niño-3.4 (subtropical southwest Indian Ocean dipole-SIOD) showed statistically significant positive (negative) correlations at different lags, suggesting that La Niña and the positive phase of SIOD conditions are favorable to weaker VWS and thus to intensification of TCs in the Mozambique Channel. Thirteen landfall cases were observed with seven over the Madagascar west coast and six over the Mozambique coast. The landfall over the Madagascar (Mozambique) coast was associated with strengthened (weakened) VWS. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

29 pages, 3461 KiB  
Article
Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE
by Christelle Barthe, Olivier Bousquet, Soline Bielli, Pierre Tulet, Joris Pianezze, Marine Claeys, Chia-Lun Tsai, Callum Thompson, François Bonnardot, Fabrice Chauvin, Julien Cattiaux, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Vincent Amelie, Guilhem Barruol, Radiance Calmer, Stéphane Ciccione, Emmanuel Cordier, Quoc-Phi Duong, Jonathan Durand, Frauke Fleischer-Dogley, Romain Husson, Edouard Lees, Sylvie Malardel, Nicolas Marquestaut, Alberto Mavume, Dominique Mékiès, Alexis Mouche, Navalona Manitriniana Ravoson, Bruno Razafindradina, Elisa Rindraharisaona, Gregory Roberts, Manvendra Singh, Lova Zakariasy and Jonas Zuculeadd Show full author list remove Hide full author list
Atmosphere 2021, 12(6), 689; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12060689 - 28 May 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3704
Abstract
The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate [...] Read more.
The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

17 pages, 2204 KiB  
Article
The Effect of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on the Structure and Intensity of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa in the Southwest Indian Ocean
by Soline Bielli, Christelle Barthe, Olivier Bousquet, Pierre Tulet and Joris Pianezze
Atmosphere 2021, 12(6), 688; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12060688 - 27 May 2021
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 2621
Abstract
A set of numerical simulations is relied upon to evaluate the impact of air-sea interactions on the behaviour of tropical cyclone (TC) Bejisa (2014), using various configurations of the coupled ocean-atmosphere numerical system Meso-NH-NEMO. Uncoupled (SST constant) as well as 1D (use of [...] Read more.
A set of numerical simulations is relied upon to evaluate the impact of air-sea interactions on the behaviour of tropical cyclone (TC) Bejisa (2014), using various configurations of the coupled ocean-atmosphere numerical system Meso-NH-NEMO. Uncoupled (SST constant) as well as 1D (use of a 1D ocean mixed layer) and 3D (full 3D ocean) coupled experiments are conducted to evaluate the impact of the oceanic response and dynamic processes, with emphasis on the simulated structure and intensity of TC Bejisa. Although the three experiments are shown to properly capture the track of the tropical cyclone, the intensity and the spatial distribution of the sea surface cooling show strong differences from one coupled experiment to another. In the 1D experiment, sea surface cooling (∼1 °C) is reduced by a factor 2 with respect to observations and appears restricted to the depth of the ocean mixed layer. Cooling is maximized along the right-hand side of the TC track, in apparent disagreement with satellite-derived sea surface temperature observations. In the 3D experiment, surface cooling of up to 2.5 °C is simulated along the left hand side of the TC track, which shows more consistency with observations both in terms of intensity and spatial structure. In-depth cooling is also shown to extend to a much deeper depth, with a secondary maximum of nearly 1.5 °C simulated near 250 m. With respect to the uncoupled experiment, heat fluxes are reduced from about 20% in both 1D and 3D coupling configurations. The tropical cyclone intensity in terms of occurrence of 10-m TC wind is globally reduced in both cases by about 10%. 3D-coupling tends to asymmetrize winds aloft with little impact on intensity but rather a modification of the secondary circulation, resulting in a slight change in structure. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

51 pages, 19872 KiB  
Article
Analysis of Climate Change Projections for Mozambique under the Representative Concentration Pathways
by Alberto F. Mavume, Bionídio E. Banze, Odete A. Macie and António J. Queface
Atmosphere 2021, 12(5), 588; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12050588 - 01 May 2021
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 6604
Abstract
Despite having contributed the least to global warming and having the lowest emissions, the African region is the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts. To reduce the levels of risk arising from climate change, it is mandatory to combine both mitigation and [...] Read more.
Despite having contributed the least to global warming and having the lowest emissions, the African region is the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts. To reduce the levels of risk arising from climate change, it is mandatory to combine both mitigation and adaptation. While mitigation can reduce global warming, not all impacts can be avoided. Therefore, adaptation is essential to advance strategic interventions and reduce the impacts. As part of the international effort to cope with changing climate, a set of Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains have been established worldwide. The CORDEX-Africa initiative has been developed to analyze downscaled regional climate data over the African domain for climate data analysis techniques and engage users of climate information in both sector-specific and region/space-based applications. This study takes outputs of high-resolution climate multi-models from the CORDEX-Africa initiative constructed at a spatial resolution of 50 km to assess climate change projections over Mozambique. Projected spatial and temporal changes (three 30-year time periods, the present (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070), and the end (2071–2100)) in temperature and precipitation under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 are analyzed and compared relative to the baseline period (1961–1990). Results show that there is a tendency toward an increase in annual temperature as we move toward the middle and end of the century, mainly for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This is evident for the Gaza Province, north of the Tete Province, and parts of Niassa Province, where variations will be Tmax (0.92 to 4.73 °C), Tmin (1.12 to 4.85 °C), and Tmean (0.99 to 4.7 °C). In contrast, the coastal region will experience less variation (values < 0.5 °C to 3 °C). At the seasonal scale, the pattern of temperature change does not differ from that of the annual scale. The JJA and SON seasons present the largest variations in temperature compared with DJF and MAM seasons. The increase in temperature may reach 4.47 °C in DJF, 4.59 °C in MAM, 5.04 °C in JJA, and 5.25 °C in SON. Precipitation shows substantial spatial and temporal variations, both in annual and seasonal scales. The northern coastal zone region shows a reduction in precipitation, while the entire southern region, with the exception of the coastal part, shows an increase up to 40% and up to 50% in some parts of the central and northern regions, in future climates for all periods under the three reference scenarios. At the seasonal scale (DJF and MAM), the precipitation in much of Mozambique shows above average precipitation with an increase up to more than 40% under the three scenarios. In contrast, during the JJA season, the three scenarios show a decrease in precipitation. Notably, the interior part will have the largest decrease, reaching a variation of −60% over most of the Gaza, Tete, and Niassa Provinces. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

27 pages, 8596 KiB  
Article
C-Band SAR Winds for Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Forecast in the South-West Indian Ocean
by Quoc-Phi Duong, Sébastien Langlade, Christophe Payan, Romain Husson, Alexis Mouche and Sylvie Malardel
Atmosphere 2021, 12(5), 576; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12050576 - 29 Apr 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2071
Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) monitoring and forecast in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin remain challenging, notably because of the lack of direct observations. During the 2018–2019 cyclone season, S-1 Sentinel SAR images were acquired, as part of the ReNovRisk-Cyclone research program, giving [...] Read more.
Tropical cyclone (TC) monitoring and forecast in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin remain challenging, notably because of the lack of direct observations. During the 2018–2019 cyclone season, S-1 Sentinel SAR images were acquired, as part of the ReNovRisk-Cyclone research program, giving access to unprecedented detailed TC wind structure description without wind speed limitation. This paper assesses the quality of these data and the impact of their assimilation for TC forecasts. SAR observations are compared with analyses from a convection-permitting, limited area model AROME OI 3D-Var and with wind products used for operational TC monitoring. Their bias depends on the angle of incidence of the radar and the observation error is larger for extreme wind speed. The impact of SAR assimilation in AROME OI 3D-Var is assessed through two case studies. In the TC GELENA case, it leads to a better TC positioning and an improved representation of inner and outer vortex structures. The TC intensity reduction in the analysis propagates through subsequent analyses and it has an impact on forecasts for around 12 h. In the TC IDAI case, the 3D-Var does not manage to reproduce TC intensity captured by SAR. In both cases, the modification of the initial conditions has little influence on the intensification rate of the model forecasts. Sensitivity tests show that these results are robust to different observation errors and thinning. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

41 pages, 15195 KiB  
Article
Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 1: Overview and Observing Component of the Research Project RENOVRISK-CYCLONE
by Olivier Bousquet, Guilhem Barruol, Emmanuel Cordier, Christelle Barthe, Soline Bielli, Radiance Calmer, Elisa Rindraharisaona, Gregory Roberts, Pierre Tulet, Vincent Amelie, Frauke Fleischer-Dogley, Alberto Mavume, Jonas Zucule, Lova Zakariasy, Bruno Razafindradina, François Bonnardot, Manvendra Singh, Edouard Lees, Jonathan Durand, Dominique Mekies, Marine Claeys, Joris Pianezze, Callum Thompson, Chia-Lun Tsai, Romain Husson, Alexis Mouche, Stephane Ciccione, Julien Cattiaux, Fabrice Chauvin and Nicolas Marquestautadd Show full author list remove Hide full author list
Atmosphere 2021, 12(5), 544; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12050544 - 23 Apr 2021
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 4449
Abstract
The international research program “ReNovRisk-CYCLONE” (RNR-CYC, 2017–2021) directly involves 20 partners from 5 countries of the south-west Indian-Ocean. It aims at improving the observation and modelling of tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean, as well as to foster regional cooperation and improve [...] Read more.
The international research program “ReNovRisk-CYCLONE” (RNR-CYC, 2017–2021) directly involves 20 partners from 5 countries of the south-west Indian-Ocean. It aims at improving the observation and modelling of tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean, as well as to foster regional cooperation and improve public policies adapted to present and future tropical cyclones risk in this cyclonic basin. This paper describes the structure and main objectives of this ambitious research project, with emphasis on its observing components, which allowed integrating numbers of innovative atmospheric and oceanic observations (sea-turtle borne and seismic data, unmanned airborne system, ocean gliders), as well as combining standard and original methods (radiosoundings and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) atmospheric soundings, seismic and in-situ swell sampling, drone and satellite imaging) to support research on tropical cyclones from the local to the basin-scale. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

20 pages, 7267 KiB  
Article
Cyclone Signatures in the South-West Indian Ocean from Two Decades of Microseismic Noise
by Elisa J. Rindraharisaona, Guilhem Barruol, Emmanuel Cordier, Fabrice R. Fontaine and Alicia Gonzalez
Atmosphere 2021, 12(4), 488; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12040488 - 13 Apr 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2004
Abstract
Tropical Cyclones (TC) represent the most destructive natural disaster affecting the islands in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) each year. Monitoring ocean activity is therefore of primary importance to secure lands, infrastructures and peoples, but the little number of oceanographic instruments makes it [...] Read more.
Tropical Cyclones (TC) represent the most destructive natural disaster affecting the islands in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) each year. Monitoring ocean activity is therefore of primary importance to secure lands, infrastructures and peoples, but the little number of oceanographic instruments makes it challenging, particularly in real time. Long-term seismological records provide a way to decipher and quantify the past cyclonic activity by analyzing microseisms, seismic waves generated by the ocean activity and propagating through the solid Earth. In the present study, we analyze this microseismic noise generated by cyclones that develop in the SWIO basin between 1999 and 2020, using broadband seismic stations in La Réunion. The power spectral density (PSD), together with the root mean square (RMS) analyses of continuous seismic data recorded by the permanent Geoscope RER seismic station, indicate the intensification of the microseismic noise amplitude in proportion to the cyclone intensity. Thus, we establish a relationship between the cyclone intensity and the PSD of the Secondary Microseisms (SM) in frequency band ∼0.14 to 0.25 Hz (4 to 7 s period). The Pearson coefficient between the observed and estimated TC intensity are >0.8 in the presence of a cyclone with mean wind speeds >75 km/h and with a seismic station distance-to-storm center D < 3000 km. A polarization analysis in the time and frequency domains allows the retrieval of the backazimuth of the SM sources during isolated cyclone events and well-polarized signal, i.e., CpH > 0.6. We also analyzed the RMS of the Primary Microseisms (PM frequency between ∼0.05 and 0.1 Hz, i.e., for 10 to 20 s period) for cyclones passing nearby La Réunion (D < 500 km), using the available temporary and permanent broadband seismic stations. We also found high correlation coefficients (>0.8) between the PM amplitude and the local wave height issued from the global hindcast model demonstrating that the PM amplitude can be used as a robust proxy to perform a real-time wave-height monitoring in the neighboring ocean. Transfer functions are calculated for several cyclones to infer wave height from the seismic noise amplitude recorded on land. From the analysis of two decades of data, our results suggest that it is possible to quantify the past ocean activity for as long as continuous seismic archives are available, emphasizing microseismic noise as a key observable for quantifying and understanding the climate change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

19 pages, 4659 KiB  
Article
Projected Characteristic Changes of a Typical Tropical Cyclone under Climate Change in the South West Indian Ocean
by Callum Thompson, Christelle Barthe, Soline Bielli, Pierre Tulet and Joris Pianezze
Atmosphere 2021, 12(2), 232; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12020232 - 08 Feb 2021
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3644
Abstract
During 2 January 2014, Cyclone Bejisa passed near La Réunion in the southwestern Indian Ocean, bringing wind speeds of 41 m s1, an ocean swell of 7 m, and rainfall accumulations of 1025 mm over 48 h. As a typical [...] Read more.
During 2 January 2014, Cyclone Bejisa passed near La Réunion in the southwestern Indian Ocean, bringing wind speeds of 41 m s1, an ocean swell of 7 m, and rainfall accumulations of 1025 mm over 48 h. As a typical cyclone to impact La Réunion, we investigate how the characteristics of this cyclone could change in response to future warming via high-resolution, atmosphere–ocean coupled simulations of Bejisa-like cyclones in historical and future environments. Future environments are constructed using the pseudo global warming method whereby perturbations are added to historical analyses from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models. These models follow the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP8.5 emissions scenario and project ocean surface warming of 1.1–4.2 °C by 2100. Under these conditions, we find that future Bejisa-like cyclones are 6.5% more intense on average and reach their lifetime maximum intensity 2 degrees further poleward. Additionally, future cyclones produce heavier rainfall, with a 33.8% average increase in the median rainrate, and are 9.2% smaller, as measured by the radius of 17.5 m s1 winds. Furthermore, when surface wind output is used to run an ocean wave model in post, we find a 4.6% increase in the significant wave height. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean)
Show Figures

Figure 1

Back to TopTop