Interpretable Statistical Machine for Decision Making: Modeling, Learning and Application Perspectives

A special issue of Computation (ISSN 2079-3197). This special issue belongs to the section "Computational Engineering".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2023) | Viewed by 5255

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Department of Control Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China
Interests: estimation theory in control system; reinforcement learning; adaptive control; fuzzy control; intelligent control

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Guest Editor
Global Management Studies, Ted Rogers School of Management, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON M5G 2C3, Canada
Interests: statistical machine learning; explainable data analytics; risk modeling; rate making; multivariate statistical methods; time series analysis; predictive analytics; health informatics; biosignal analysis
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools used in making decisions and predictions in real-world complex systems, including medical diagnoses, the spread of infectious diseases, financial modelling and insurance pricing. However, in most cases, these algorithms do not provided explanations for how they reach the results and have a barrier preventing the achievement of a broader adaptation of machine learning or, more generally, artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in decision-making problems. Most ML or deep learning (DL) algorithms in AI are complex, and explaining and interpreting their results is not straightforward. The difficulties with explaining and interpreting AI results have led to research on the interpretability of AI. On the other hand, interpretable decision making is essential, particularly for policymakers or government regulators, as transparency of how the decision is determined is part of the decision-making process. Such a need has caused explainable AI and interpretable machine learning to become prevalent in many fields, including insurance, finance and engineering. For example, this type of research is crucial for the decision making of auto insurance rate regulation, and is currently a very active research area in actuarial science.

This Special Issue aims to collect outstanding research papers on building statistical or computational models that can provide sufficient interpretability for decision-making problems. The application domains may include computational intelligence, engineering, business and economics.

The methodology topics include, but are not limited to, the following:

  • Sparse statistical methods;
  • Interpretable statistical models;
  • Feature extraction and dimension reduction;
  • Explainable artificial neural networks;
  • Model agnostics methods;
  • Variable importance measures;
  • Machine learning for decision making;
  • Multiple criteria decision making.

Both theoretical development and applied work addressing the interpretability of models for decision making in a broader sense are welcome.

Dr. Xiaojun Ban
Dr. Shengkun Xie
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Computation is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

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Keywords

  • interpretable machine learning
  • statistical learning
  • decision making under uncertainty
  • high-dimensional data analysis
  • feature extraction
  • explainable machine learning
  • multiple criteria decision making

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 3313 KiB  
Article
Explainable Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Models for Detecting the Presence of Cirrhosis in Hepatitis C Patients
by Abrar Alotaibi, Lujain Alnajrani, Nawal Alsheikh, Alhatoon Alanazy, Salam Alshammasi, Meshael Almusairii, Shoog Alrassan and Aisha Alansari
Computation 2023, 11(6), 104; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/computation11060104 - 23 May 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2064
Abstract
Hepatitis C is a liver infection caused by a virus, which results in mild to severe inflammation of the liver. Over many years, hepatitis C gradually damages the liver, often leading to permanent scarring, known as cirrhosis. Patients sometimes have moderate or no [...] Read more.
Hepatitis C is a liver infection caused by a virus, which results in mild to severe inflammation of the liver. Over many years, hepatitis C gradually damages the liver, often leading to permanent scarring, known as cirrhosis. Patients sometimes have moderate or no symptoms of liver illness for decades before developing cirrhosis. Cirrhosis typically worsens to the point of liver failure. Patients with cirrhosis may also experience brain and nerve system damage, as well as gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Treatment for cirrhosis focuses on preventing further progression of the disease. Detecting cirrhosis earlier is therefore crucial for avoiding complications. Machine learning (ML) has been shown to be effective at providing precise and accurate information for use in diagnosing several diseases. Despite this, no studies have so far used ML to detect cirrhosis in patients with hepatitis C. This study obtained a dataset consisting of 28 attributes of 2038 Egyptian patients from the ML Repository of the University of California at Irvine. Four ML algorithms were trained on the dataset to diagnose cirrhosis in hepatitis C patients: a Random Forest, a Gradient Boosting Machine, an Extreme Gradient Boosting, and an Extra Trees model. The Extra Trees model outperformed the other models achieving an accuracy of 96.92%, a recall of 94.00%, a precision of 99.81%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 96% using only 16 of the 28 features. Full article
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26 pages, 8902 KiB  
Article
A Forecasting Prognosis of the Monkeypox Outbreak Based on a Comprehensive Statistical and Regression Analysis
by Farhana Yasmin, Md. Mehedi Hassan, Sadika Zaman, Si Thu Aung, Asif Karim and Sami Azam
Computation 2022, 10(10), 177; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/computation10100177 - 9 Oct 2022
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 2621
Abstract
The uncommon illness known as monkeypox is brought on by the monkeypox virus. The Orthopoxvirus genus belongs to the family Poxviridae, which also contains the monkeypox virus. The variola virus, which causes smallpox; the vaccinia virus, which is used in the smallpox vaccine; [...] Read more.
The uncommon illness known as monkeypox is brought on by the monkeypox virus. The Orthopoxvirus genus belongs to the family Poxviridae, which also contains the monkeypox virus. The variola virus, which causes smallpox; the vaccinia virus, which is used in the smallpox vaccine; and the cowpox virus are all members of the Orthopoxvirus genus. There is no relationship between chickenpox and monkeypox. After two outbreaks of a disorder resembling pox, monkeypox was first discovered in colonies of monkeys kept for research in 1958. The illness, also known as “monkeypox”, still has no known cause. However, non-human primates and African rodents can spread the disease to humans (such as monkeys). In 1970, a human was exposed to monkeypox for the first time. Several additional nations in central and western Africa currently have documented cases of monkeypox. Before the 2022 outbreak, almost all instances of monkeypox in people outside of Africa were connected to either imported animals or foreign travel to nations where the illness frequently occurs. In this work, the most recent monkeypox dataset was evaluated and the significant instances were visualized. Additionally, nine different forecasting models were also used, and the prophet model emerged as the most reliable one when compared with all nine models with an MSE value of 41,922.55, an R2 score of 0.49, a MAPE value of 16.82, an MAE value of 146.29, and an RMSE value of 204.75, which could be considerable assistance to clinicians treating monkeypox patients and government agencies monitoring the origination and current state of the disease. Full article
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