Climate Change, Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction–Planning Perspectives

To address the challenges of the twenty-first century, particularly the negative effects of climate change, mitigation measures such as Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are being employed. Vegetation, being a part of various NbS interventions, provides different ecosystem services that help combat current climate-related vulnerabilities. This research aims to illustrate the connection between plants’ contribution to adapting to climate change and the creation of more sustainable spaces, focusing on the usage of bioretention systems (BRs) as an example of NbS. Some of the main aspects of how vegetation is selected for BRs according to qualities that may contribute to developing sustainable landscapes, along with providing key features of plants’ adaptation, different taxonomic data, and specific plant species that have been demonstrated to be good candidates for planting in BRs, are also discussed. Therefore, the importance of this paper is in providing a comprehensive systematization of vegetation with insightful suggestions on plant species for future BR implementation. Full article

The deterioration of the urban thermal environment has seriously affected the quality of life of urban residents, and studying the optimal cooling landscape combination and configuration based on local climate zones (LCZs) is crucial for mitigating the thermal environment. In this study, the LCZ system was combined to analyze the spatial and temporal changes to the thermal environment in the central area of Fuzhou, and the 159 blocks in the core area were selected to derive the optimal LCZ combination and configuration. The conclusions are as follows: (1) From 2013 to 2021, the building layout of the study area became more open and the building height gradually increased. The high-temperature areas were mainly clustered in the core area; (2) The LSTs for low-rise buildings (LCZ 3 (41.67 °C), LCZ 7 (40.10 °C), LCZ 8 (42.61 °C), and LCZ 10 (41.85 °C)) were higher than the LSTs for high-rise buildings (LCZ 1 (38.58 °C) and LCZ 4 (38.50 °C)); (3) The thermal contribution index for low building types was higher for dense buildings (LCZ 3 (0.4331), LCZ 8 (0.3149), and LCZ 10 (0.2325)) than for open buildings (LCZ 6 (0.0247) and LCZ 9 (0.0317)); (4) Blocks with an average LST of 36 °C had the most cost-effective cooling, and the combination and configuration of LCZs within such blocks were optimal. Our results can be used to better guide urban planners in managing LCZ combinations and configurations within blocks (the smallest planning unit) at an earlier phase of thermal environment design, and for appropriately adapting existing block layouts, providing a new perspective on urban thermal environment research with important implications for climate-friendly city and neighborhood planning. Full article

Land use planning is an important task for every country in the world to ensure the sustainable use of land resources for economic and social development activities. However, many land use plans have not achieved their desired effectiveness due to a lack of consideration and evaluation of factors affecting the land use planning implementation process. This study was conducted to answer the following question: what are the main factors influencing the land use planning process in Vietnam? In this study, we use multivariate regression to identify the main factors influencing land use planning in Vietnam, including the economic factor group; institutional and policy factor group; urbanisation factor group; planning factor group; social factor group; environmental factor group; and organisational and implementation factor group. The results identified five groups of factors influencing land use planning in the Dan Phuong district through the influencing factor analysis method, including policy (Po), economy (Ec), society (So), environment (En), and others (Ot). In addition, the linear regression model obtained for land use planning in Dan Phuong district is as follows: land use planning = 0.408Po + 0.454Ec + 0.398So + 0.368En + 0.259Ot. In which the group of factors with the strongest influence was the Eco factors (β = 0.454), the second was the Po factors (β = 0.408), the third was the So factors (β = 0.398), the fourth was the En factors (β = 0.368), and lastly, there were the Ot factors (β = 0.259). The results of the analysis were used to plan land use effectively and according to local conditions. This can help managers to find solutions for the sustainable use of land resources in the future. Full article

This article presents the testing of the principle of risk-based planning using the example of the city of Erftstadt, Germany, which was affected by the devastating flood of 2021. The basis of this article was a simulated land use plan approval procedure for a flood-prone site in the urban district of Erftstadt-Liblar. In the contributions, the contents of the environmental report relating to effects to be expected for disasters as well as designations of a risk-based flood-proofed land use plan are presented. As a result of the gaming simulation, the hazard zone plan proves to be a suitable instrument for operationalizing the consideration of flood prevention in risk-prone areas. The simulation also provides evidence that it is possible to implement a risk-based approach within the current legal planning framework in Germany that is laid down by the Federal Building Code (BauGB). Innovative elements are the considerations of the protection worthiness of different types of infrastructures by spatially and contextually differentiated designations. The hazard zone concept, as such, and the findings of the gaming simulation will be used by the state planning authority for an amendment of the regional plan of North-Rhine Westphalia and will therefore be mandatory for the land use planning of all municipalities. Full article

Climate change is now one of the most formidable threats to the livelihoods of resource-poor communities in low-income developing countries world-wide. Addressing this challenge continues to be undermined by the conspicuous absence of actionable adaptation strategies that are potentially capable of enhancing our capacities to realize the Millennial Sustainable Development Goals that seek to securitize access to adequate food supplies for everybody. This paper attempts to address this limitation by providing an improvised geostatistical methodology that integrates multi-source data to map the adaptive capacities of vulnerable communities in a selected South African local municipality, whose livelihoods are largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture. The development of this methodology was based on the use scripts that were compiled in Python and used to test-try its usefulness through a case-study-based assessment of the climate-change-adaptive capacities of local communities in Raymond Mhlaba Local Municipality (RMLM), Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. A Bayesian maximum entropy framework-based technique was used to overcome the lack of missing soil moisture data, which we included because of its reliable usefulness as a surrogate indicator of climate-change-driven variations in this variable on the sustainability of rain-fed agriculture. Analysis of the results from a sampling universe of 124 communities revealed that 65 and 56 of them had high and medium adaptive capacities, respectively, with the remaining 3 having low adaptive capacities. This finding indicates that more than half of the communities in the municipality’s communities have limited capabilities to cope with climate change’s impacts on their livelihoods. Although our proposed methodology is premised on findings from a case-study-based investigation, it is still extremely useful because it demonstratively shows that there is tremendous scope for the scientific community to provide objectively informed insights that can be used to enhance the adaptive capacities of those in need of the badly needed but difficult-to-access information. Added to this is the fact that our proposed methodology is not only applicable for use under different environmental settings but also capable of allowing us to cost-effectively tap into the rich, wide-ranging, freely accessible datasets at our disposal. The aim of this submission is to show that although we have the information, we need to address these persevering challenges by exploring innovative approaches to translate the knowledge we have into actionable climate-change-adaptation strategies. Full article

In this paper, we are interested in assessing the different environmental security concepts, policies, and actions of actors involved in the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Through exploratory qualitative research, we interviewed key stakeholders who formulate both the climate security discourse and its policy outcomes. Aiming at finding the different perceptions and practices among various actors, we conducted 27 qualitative interviews with practitioners from 17 different institutions, such as EU bodies and agencies, think tanks, and ministries of defense (MoDs). This article discusses the divergence between announced environmental and climate security strategies and policies related to their actual results. Notably, the findings indicate that the effectiveness of the political directives compared with the practices and the developed capabilities around the environment–security nexus are dependent on individual initiatives and efforts that a developing community of practitioners is attempting to carry out. Our study indicates that tailored environmental security policies and actions are needed to motivate both practitioners and policymakers to develop downstream methods and programs that are suited to resolving security-related challenges associated with environmental issues and especially climate change. Full article

The concept of nature-based solutions (NbS) has been endorsed by multiple international organizations as one of the priority approaches to address climate-related challenges. These solutions are versatile, and can simultaneously address challenges such as climate impacts, public health, inequality, and the biodiversity crisis, being uniquely suited for urban adaptation. NbS are particularly relevant in the developing world, where strategies should be as self-reliant as possible, reducing the need for technological processes that require expensive and complex maintenance. NbS can also promote political, societal, cultural, and ultimately, systems change. The purpose of this paper is to present a literature review on the use of NbS for urban adaptation, identifying the main opportunities, challenges, and, most specifically, knowledge gaps, which can be addressed in subsequent research. The present paper identifies four types of knowledge gaps that are particularly relevant for the use of NbS for urban adaptation: future climate uncertainty, lack of site-specific technical design criteria, governance strategies, and effectiveness assessment evaluation. To overcome local governments’ limitations, specific implementation strategies and structures should be considered, centered on knowledge transfer within a transdisciplinary and participatory framework. These should be developed in partnership with urban planning entities, seeking to consolidate these approaches in policies that support social resilience and institutional capacity. Therefore, urban adaptation should be initiated with pilot projects to simultaneously address the urgency for implementation, while allowing urban planning practices the time to adjust, building capacity at the local level, and filling knowledge gaps through the assessment of effectiveness. The climate-resilience of urban tree species adequate to the future climate was identified as a relevant knowledge gap for the implementation of NbS. Full article

Smallholder farmers’ capacities need to be strengthened to enable them to better withstand the upcoming impacts of climate change; these capacities not only include the responsive capacity, but also consider innovation, learning, and anticipation to be prepared for the projected impacts of a changing climate on the agriculture system. The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of climate smart agriculture (CSA) innovations on building climate resilience capacity in smallholder agriculture systems. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted among a multi-stage sample of 424 smallholder farmers selected from five agroecosystems of the Upper Blue Nile Highlands in Ethiopia. The study used an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model to examine the impact of CSA innovations on building climate resilience capacity among smallholder farmers. The true average adoption effects of climate resilience capacity under actual and counterfactual conditions showed that different CSA innovations have different effects on the climate resilience capacity of households. Except for SWC adopters, all CSA innovations significantly increased the climate resilience capacity of households. However, improved variety, crop residue management, and SWC have more profound effects on the non-adopters than adopters, =if non-adopters had adopted these CSA innovations. Strong absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities through strong disaster and early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, a strong public agricultural extension system, a strong informal safety net, and social networks build a climate-resilient agriculture system among smallholder farmers. Thus, scaling up of CSA innovations may expand the benefit of CSA innovation on building the climate resilience capacities of households. Thus, strong risk management, disaster mitigation and early warning systems, adaptive strategies, information and training, informal safety nets, social networks, and infrastructure use may build the climate resilience capacity of smallholder farmers by facilitating the adoption of CSA innovation. Therefore, policies that strengthen good governance, social cohesion, disaster communication and early warning systems, input supply of drought-resistant varieties, climate smart extension service, and climate-resilient infrastructure are necessary. Full article

More than 130 lives were lost in the 2021 heavy precipitation and flood event in the Ahr Valley, Germany, where large parts of the valley were destroyed. Afterwards, public funding of about 15 billion Euros has been made available for reconstruction. However, with people and settlements being in highly exposed zones, the core question that is not sufficiently addressed is whether affected people want to rebuild in the same place, or rather opt to move out. The paper explores this question and assesses motivations and reasons for moving or staying in the Ahr Valley. For this purpose, a household survey was conducted focusing on 516 flood-affected households. The collected data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results revealed that the ownership of the house or flat significantly influenced the decision of whether to stay or to leave. In addition, an attachment to the place and the belief that such extreme events occur very rarely influenced the decision to stay and rebuild. Age, gender and household income barely influenced the decision to stay or to move to a new place. Interestingly, results demonstrated that many respondents view settlement retreat and the relocation of critical infrastructures as important options to reduce risk, however, many still rebuild in the same place. These insights enable local policy and practice to better address the needs of the population in terms of whether to stay or move after such an extreme disaster. Full article

Climate defines the hydrological cycle of each region and climate change will undoubtedly affect the recharge processes of the world’s water tables and the water resources currently available at the basin and microbasin scale. The objective of the present paper is to evaluate future changes in evapotranspiration and flows from the Sardinas River basin in North Durango, Mexico. The Rural Genius Model (GR2M) is an aggregated monthly hydrological model, which is used to reconstruct flows from precipitation and evapotranspiration by applying two functions: a production function and a transfer function. A transfer function has been used under four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (126, 245, 370, and 585). Pettitt and Mann–Kendall statistical tests were used to determine trends, which were identified by the breakpoint in the evapotranspiration and flow time series. Results showed that under climate change scenarios, evapotranspiration shows an increase over time. Under the climate scenario, SSP 126, and the application of the statistical test in the flow series show an increasing trend with a break in May for 2090, with a mean of 1658 mm before and 2238 mm after the break, with an excess of 34.98%. The flow under the SSP 245 climate scenario predicts a mean flow of 1703.11 mm and a break in May of the 2090 horizon, with a mean before and after the break of 1624 mm and 2168 mm, respectively, with an excess of 33.49%. Under the SSP 370 scenario, the mean is expected to be 1710.81 mm, with a break in May 2090, before and after means of 1633 mm and 2166 mm, respectively, with an excess of 32.63%. Under climate change scenario SSP 585, the mean expected will be 1701.43 mm and the break in the flow series will occur in May of the 2090 horizon, with a mean of 1628 mm before the break and 2132 mm after, with a flow excess of 30.95%. The results of this study can be a basis for decision-makers for better management and protection of water resources in northern Durango, Mexico. Full article

Flood events have long been very frequent along the Yangtze River in Chongqing, China. A complete sedimentary sequence of alluvia, found in the Yuxi profile (YXP) was applied to explore features of the palaeoflood layers that maintained records related to the contexts of flooding hydroclimate. The AMS¹⁴C dating results dependent on animal bones from the YXP validate that the chronology of the palaeoflood layers was dated, between ca. 8200 and 6400 a BP, and multiple cultural layers were intercut among these palaeoflood layers. By means of particle size and end-member analyses for the palaeoflood sediments, the fractions of fine silt and clay in deposits account for a high proportion of the flood sediments, suggesting that the overbank flood was the main power in building the palaeoflood layers. Due to the climatic episodes defined by pollen assemblages, the thickness of the flood layers is positively correlated with soil erosion because of different hydrothermal conditions. The wavelet spectra of the mean particle-size series also suggest that there may be two major palaeoflooding cycles of ~700 and ~30 years. Despite the sustained palaeoflooding, the Yuxi Culture grew from small to big, and was never broken off, in terms of the findings of artificial remains in the YXP. Full article

The scientific basis for conceptualizing how farm households achieve the three climate-smart agriculture (CSA) pillars, the “triple benefit”, is not well developed. This paper examined the impacts of CSA innovations on simultaneously enhancing food security, climate adaptation, and reducing GHG emissions. A cross-sectional household survey was collected from a multi-stage sample of 424 smallholder farmers selected from five agroecosystems of the upper Blue Nile highlands in Ethiopia and analyzed using an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model. CSA innovations, improved variety, compost, row planting, and agroforestry, provide farmers with the benefits of enhanced food security and climate change adaptation, reducing GHG emissions from farm plots. Crop rotation provides farmers with enhanced food security and reduced livelihood vulnerability, while SWC meets the goal of enhancing food security and reducing GHG emissions. Unfortunately, adopting crop residue management, one of the recommended CSA practices in Ethiopia, does not deliver at least two of the CSA pillars. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt improved variety, crop rotation, compost, row planting, soil and water conservation, and agroforestry as the best portfolio of CSA innovation for highland smallholder agriculture systems. Full article

This paper examines the relationship between foreign exchange reserves (FERs) and climate disaster losses (CDLs) in the East Asia Pacific region. To guide the empirical work, we use the bootstrap Granger rolling window estimation to capture the dynamic relationship between the two variables. It is suggested that CDLs positively affect the central banks’ FERs in East Asia Pacific countries, but this relationship appears to be weakening recently. FERs are shown to reduce CDLs. The results are supported by the small open economy model in which the central bank decides jointly on FERs and external debt. With the balance of payments deteriorating, CDLs can lead to a sudden stop of international capital flows, which is destructive to economic development. Therefore, when severe climate disasters are anticipated, the central bank accumulates FERs in advance. If unexpected climate disasters occur, central banks may become more precautious and increase FERs. Therefore, the central bank should consider the risk of climate change and hold an appropriate amount of FERs but FERs are not the more the better; the government should strengthen infrastructure construction to resist climate disasters. Full article

The combined effects of global warming, urbanization, and demographic change influence climate risk for urban populations, particularly in metropolitan areas with developing economies. To inform climate change adaptation and spatial planning, it is important to study urban climatic hazards and populations at risk in relation to urban growth trends and development patterns. However, this relationship has not been adequately investigated in studies dedicated to climate vulnerability. This study identifies the typologies of development patterns within Lahore, Pakistan, investigates the heat vulnerability of residents at a neighborhood scale, and establishes a relationship between both of these factors. We identified urban clusters with diverse development patterns. Fourteen context- and site-specific indicators were selected to construct a human heat vulnerability index. Weighted sum, cluster analysis, and ANOVA test of variance were conducted to analyze the data. Our results demonstrate that development patterns significantly influence human vulnerability to heat stress, e.g., vulnerability is higher in older cities and undeveloped neighborhoods with less diverse land uses. These findings are essential for informing policy-makers, decision-makers and spatial planners about proactive adaptation planning in dynamic urban environments. Full article

Climate projections indicate that persistent high temperatures and related heat stress will become a common experience in the future, across Africa. It is, therefore, important to understand challenges that might result from increasing extreme heat conditions, and how humans within urban centres can adapt. In this article, we provide a review that considers the experience of poor urban residents with extreme temperatures and adaptation strategies in relation to low-income, informal urban contexts in Africa. Our analysis is carried out across four focus countries: Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt. Only cursory insights exist in the context of informal settlements. We found that heat stress remains an overlooked topic in comparison to other climate change adaptation needs. Evidence shows that adaptation strategies varied and differed in framing, scale, and applied methods across the contexts. Adaptation strategies dominantly examine a broad variety of alternative building measures and, to a lesser degree, greening/nature-based strategies. It is important to highlight heat stress as a cross-cutting, focal topic in urban research in relation to informal settlements and generally broaden the spectrum. It is worthwhile to pay special attention to strategic actions and research designs that foresee win–win and co-beneficial options for local urban communities. Full article

The impact of climate change and related hazards such as floods, heatwaves, and sea level rise on human lives, cities, and their hinterlands depends not only on the nature of the hazard, but also on urban development, adaptation, and other socioeconomic processes that determine vulnerability and exposure. Spatial planning can reduce climate risk not just by influencing the exposure, but also by addressing social vulnerability. This requires that relevant information is available to planners and that plans are implemented and coordinated between sectors. This article is based on a research project in Thailand, particularly on the results of multi-sectoral workshops in the case study region of the Andaman Coast in southern Thailand, and draws upon climate risk, spatial planning, and systems thinking discourses. The article formulates recommendations for planning in the context of Thailand that are relevant for other rapidly growing and urbanizing regions. Among other conclusions, it suggests that systems thinking approaches and cross-sectoral strategies are ways to grasp the interdependencies between and within climate risk and spatial development challenges. Full article