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Article

Probabilistic Forecasts of Sea Ice Trajectories in the Arctic: Impact of Uncertainties in Surface Wind and Ice Cohesion

1
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, 5006 Bergen, Norway
2
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), 40127 Bologna, Italy
3
Institut de Géophysique de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, CS 40700, 38 058 Grenoble CEDEX 9, France
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Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AH, UK
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Mathematical Institute, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 11 September 2020 / Revised: 4 December 2020 / Accepted: 7 December 2020 / Published: 14 December 2020
We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to the uncertainty in sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics in neXtSIM are based on a brittle-like rheological framework. The study considers short-term ensemble forecasts of Arctic sea ice from January to April 2008. Ensembles are generated by perturbing the wind inputs and ice cohesion field both separately and jointly. The resulting uncertainty in the probabilistic forecasts is evaluated statistically based on the analysis of Lagrangian sea ice trajectories as sampled by virtual drifters seeded in the model to cover the Arctic Ocean and using metrics borrowed from the search-and-rescue literature. The comparison among the different ensembles indicates that wind perturbations dominate the forecast uncertainty (i.e., the absolute spread of the ensemble), while the inhomogeneities in the ice cohesion field significantly increase the degree of anisotropy in the spread—i.e., trajectories drift divergently in different directions. We suggest that in order to obtain enough uncertainties in a sea ice model with brittle-like rheologies, to predict sea ice drift and trajectories, one should consider using ensemble-based simulations where at least wind forcing and sea ice cohesion are perturbed. View Full-Text
Keywords: Arctic sea ice drift; neXtSIM; ensemble forecasting; wind perturbation; ice cohesion perturbation Arctic sea ice drift; neXtSIM; ensemble forecasting; wind perturbation; ice cohesion perturbation
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MDPI and ACS Style

Cheng, S.; Aydoğdu, A.; Rampal, P.; Carrassi, A.; Bertino, L. Probabilistic Forecasts of Sea Ice Trajectories in the Arctic: Impact of Uncertainties in Surface Wind and Ice Cohesion. Oceans 2020, 1, 326-342. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/oceans1040022

AMA Style

Cheng S, Aydoğdu A, Rampal P, Carrassi A, Bertino L. Probabilistic Forecasts of Sea Ice Trajectories in the Arctic: Impact of Uncertainties in Surface Wind and Ice Cohesion. Oceans. 2020; 1(4):326-342. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/oceans1040022

Chicago/Turabian Style

Cheng, Sukun, Ali Aydoğdu, Pierre Rampal, Alberto Carrassi, and Laurent Bertino. 2020. "Probabilistic Forecasts of Sea Ice Trajectories in the Arctic: Impact of Uncertainties in Surface Wind and Ice Cohesion" Oceans 1, no. 4: 326-342. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/oceans1040022

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