Research

19 pages, 767 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Geophysical and Social Influences on Evacuation Decision-Making: The Case of Hurricane Irma

by Robin L. Ersing, Christianne Pearce, Jennifer Collins, Michelle E. Saunders and Amy Polen

Atmosphere 2020, 11(8), 851; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11080851 - 12 Aug 2020

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3006

Understanding the factors that influence evacuation decision-making among local residents is of critical importance to those involved in monitoring and managing weather-related hazards. This study examined both geophysical and social variables that we believe influenced individual decision-making on whether to stay home, seek [...] Read more.

Understanding the factors that influence evacuation decision-making among local residents is of critical importance to those involved in monitoring and managing weather-related hazards. This study examined both geophysical and social variables that we believe influenced individual decision-making on whether to stay home, seek out a public shelter, or leave the area entirely during Hurricane Irma. A 23-item survey was administered to a convenience sample of adults (n = 234) who resided within a coastal Florida county that received an evacuation warning during Hurricane Irma in 2017. Results suggested sources of information relied on through media, government, family, and social networks contributed to differences in evacuation behavior. Moreover, potential exposure to weather-related conditions, such as flooding and strong winds, along with the likelihood to use available social resources, also influenced decisions to stay or leave the threatened area. Finally, prior evacuation behavior was significantly associated with the decision to evacuate during Hurricane Irma. The decision to evacuate for Hurricane Irma was shown to impact decision-making to evacuate for major hurricanes in the future. If these findings are applied to future storms, a broader conclusion can be made that residents in vulnerable areas may be more likely to evacuate for major hurricanes than they were in the past. Improved understanding of evacuation decision-making can assist emergency managers in preparation and planning to reduce casualties resulting from a hurricane or other weather-related hazard. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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19 pages, 3593 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Communication and Hazard Perception Lessons from Category Five Hurricane Michael

by Jason C. Senkbeil, Laura Myers, Susan Jasko, Jacob R. Reed and Rebecca Mueller

Atmosphere 2020, 11(8), 804; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11080804 - 30 Jul 2020

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 4905

Abstract

Hurricane Michael made landfall on 10 October 2018 as only the third Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) category 5 storm in the USA in the named era. The storm’s intensity, rapid intensification, October landfall, high inland winds, and uncommon landfall location all [...] Read more.

Hurricane Michael made landfall on 10 October 2018 as only the third Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) category 5 storm in the USA in the named era. The storm’s intensity, rapid intensification, October landfall, high inland winds, and uncommon landfall location all combined to complicate the communication and preparation efforts of emergency managers (EMs) and broadcast meteorologists (BMs), while clouding the comprehension of the public. Interviews were conducted with EMs, BMs, and a small public sample to hear their stories and identify and understand common themes and experiences. This information and previous research was used to inform the creation of questions for a large sample public survey. Results showed that 61% of our sample did not evacuate, and approximately 80% either underestimated the intensity, misinterpreted or did not believe the forecast, or realized the danger too late to evacuate. Hazard perception from a survey of the public revealed that wind followed by tornadoes, and falling trees were the major concerns across the region. According to their counties of residence, participants were divided into Coastal or Inland, and Heavily Impacted or Less Impacted categories. Inland participants expressed a significantly higher concern for wind, tornadoes, falling trees, and rainfall/inland flooding than Coastal participants. Participants from Heavily Impacted counties showed greater concern for storm surge, tornadoes, and falling trees than participants from Less Impacted counties. These results reinforce the continued need for all parties of the weather enterprise to strengthen communication capabilities with EMs and the public for extreme events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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28 pages, 2824 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Heat Vulnerability and Heat Island Mitigation in the United States

by Jungmin Lim and Mark Skidmore

Atmosphere 2020, 11(6), 558; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11060558 - 27 May 2020

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 4939

Abstract

Heat waves are the deadliest type of natural hazard among all weather extremes in the United States. Given the observed and anticipated increase in heat risks associated with ongoing climate change, this study examines community vulnerability to extreme heat and the degree to [...] Read more.

Heat waves are the deadliest type of natural hazard among all weather extremes in the United States. Given the observed and anticipated increase in heat risks associated with ongoing climate change, this study examines community vulnerability to extreme heat and the degree to which heat island mitigation (HIM) actions by state/local governments reduce heat-induced fatalities. The analysis uses all heat events that occurred over the 1996–2011 period for all United States counties to model heat vulnerability. Results show that: (1) Higher income reduces extreme heat vulnerability, while poverty intensifies it; (2) living in mobile homes or rental homes heightens susceptibility to extreme heat; (3) increased heat vulnerability due to the growth of the elderly population is predicted to result in a two-fold increase in heat-related fatalities by 2030; and (4) community heat island mitigation measures reduce heat intensities and thus heat-related fatalities. Findings also show that an additional locally implemented measure reduces the annual death rate by 15%. A falsification test rules out the possibility of spurious inference on the life-saving role of heat island mitigation measures. Overall, these findings inform efforts to protect the most vulnerable population subgroups and guide future policies to counteract the growing risk of deadly heat waves. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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15 pages, 805 KiB

Open AccessArticle

North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas

by Jill C. Trepanier

Atmosphere 2020, 11(3), 293; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11030293 - 16 Mar 2020

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 4238

Abstract

Tropical cyclones devastate coastlines around the world. The United States and surrounding areas experienced catastrophic extreme events in recent hurricane seasons. Understanding extreme hurricanes and how they change in a warming ocean environment is of the utmost importance. This study makes use of [...] Read more.

Tropical cyclones devastate coastlines around the world. The United States and surrounding areas experienced catastrophic extreme events in recent hurricane seasons. Understanding extreme hurricanes and how they change in a warming ocean environment is of the utmost importance. This study makes use of the historical, positive relationship between average summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and maximum hurricane wind speeds across the North Atlantic Basin from 1854–2018. Geographically weighted regression shows how the relationship between hurricane winds and SSTs varies across space. Each localized slope is used to increase historical wind speeds to represent winds in a three-degree Celsius warmer-than-average sea surface. The winds are then used to estimate the maximum intensity of the thirty-year hurricane (one with a 3.3% annual probability of occurrence) across the hexagonal grid using extreme value statistics. Viewing the results spatially allows for geographic patterns to emerge in the overall risk of major hurricane occurrence in warm SST environments. This study showcases the difference in the historical extreme compared to the potential future extreme in the hopes to better inform those charged with making important, life-saving decisions along the U.S. and neighboring coasts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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23 pages, 6037 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climatology and Spatiotemporal Analysis of North Atlantic Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes (1851–2017)

by Kathleen M. Benedetto and Jill C. Trepanier

Atmosphere 2020, 11(3), 291; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11030291 - 16 Mar 2020

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 4659

Abstract

In recent decades, the scientific ability to project tropical cyclone (TC) intensities and tracks has improved. Hurricanes undergoing the process of rapid intensification (RI) have created new barriers in formulating predictions of TC paths and peak velocities. Current research suggests the warming climate [...] Read more.

In recent decades, the scientific ability to project tropical cyclone (TC) intensities and tracks has improved. Hurricanes undergoing the process of rapid intensification (RI) have created new barriers in formulating predictions of TC paths and peak velocities. Current research suggests the warming climate may produce more intense TCs with a higher probability of undergoing RI during their life cycle. The increased likelihood of rapidly intensifying TCs necessitates the development of an RI climatology spanning the current North Atlantic record. A time series count analysis suggests a significant increasing trend of RI events in the Atlantic basin by 29.1% (17%–45%) from the years 1900 to 2017. For the entire basin, the peak frequency occurs in September, followed by August, then October. Gulf of Mexico events tend to occur more regularly over June, July, August, and September, while Atlantic storms peak in August, September, and October. The onset of RI typically begins in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, west of 85° W. The lifetime maximum intensity typically occurs in the Gulf of Mexico basin. Density analysis suggests the locations of lifetime maximum intensities (LMIs) in rapidly intensifying TCs are clustered through space. It should be noted that these results are dependent upon the HURDAT record of events. This research is necessary in order to find substantive trends in RI events that may aid future predictions of tropical cyclones; therefore, potentially decreasing the lives lost and the cost of damage that these storms are known to cause. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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8 pages, 1154 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatial Characteristics of Heat Extremes in South Korea from the Climatological Mean Perspective

by Doo-Sun R. Park, Suyeon Yang, Hyung Wook Cho and Tae-Won Park

Atmosphere 2020, 11(3), 250; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11030250 - 02 Mar 2020

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2035

Abstract

We investigated the spatial characteristics of heat extremes in South Korea from the climatological mean perspective. A heat extreme was defined as a day when the daily maximum temperature was higher than 33 °C. According to our analyses, the eastern area of the [...] Read more.

We investigated the spatial characteristics of heat extremes in South Korea from the climatological mean perspective. A heat extreme was defined as a day when the daily maximum temperature was higher than 33 °C. According to our analyses, the eastern area of the Sobaek and Taebaek mountain ranges (hereafter called the eastern district) is significantly more exposed to heat extremes compared to other areas. The onset date and total number of days of annual heat extremes in the eastern district are approximately 13 days earlier and 3 days higher than those in the western district on average, respectively. Likewise, the annual mean of daily maximum temperatures during heat extreme days are approximately 0.25 °C higher. This larger exposure to heat extremes in the eastern district appears to be attributable to the Föhn phenomenon, which is likely induced by the dominant southwesterly monsoon during the early-to-peak summer. In contrast, differences in the ending dates of annual heat extremes are not noticeable between the eastern and western districts, when the southerly winds are dominant. Our analyses suggest that heat extremes in South Korea cannot be understood by a simple function of latitude, but in conjunction with atmospheric physical processes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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14 pages, 6863 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Influences of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions with Different Magnitudes on Persistent Droughts over Eastern China

by Kefan Chen, Liang Ning, Zhengyu Liu, Jian Liu, Weiyi Sun, Mi Yan, Bin Liu, Yanmin Qin and Jiao Xue

Atmosphere 2020, 11(2), 210; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11020210 - 18 Feb 2020

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2759

Abstract

In this study, the influences on persistent droughts over Eastern China from tropical volcanic eruptions with three categories of magnitudes, i.e., 25 Tg, 50 Tg, and 100 Tg, were investigated through three groups of volcanic sensitivity experiments based on the Community Earth System [...] Read more.

In this study, the influences on persistent droughts over Eastern China from tropical volcanic eruptions with three categories of magnitudes, i.e., 25 Tg, 50 Tg, and 100 Tg, were investigated through three groups of volcanic sensitivity experiments based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The results showed that, the 25 Tg tropical volcanic eruptions are too weak to significantly influence the regional precipitation changes over Eastern China, while the 50 Tg tropical volcanic eruptions can strongly intensify droughts and prolong the drought conditions for about five years. Both the extension and intensification of the drought conditions induced by 100 Tg tropical volcanic eruption are the largest among the three sensitivity experiments. These drought conditions are mainly caused by the weakened East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM), and their extension and intensification depend on the strength of the volcanic eruptions. The intensities of weakened EASMs after volcanic eruptions are associated with the distinct ocean–land thermal contrast after eruptions. The ocean–land thermal contrast is the largest after the 100 Tg tropical volcanic eruptions, while it is much weaker after the 25 Tg volcanic eruptions. The durations of drought extensions are determined by the recovery rates of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), which are associated with the magnitudes of the volcanic eruptions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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14 pages, 8144 KiB

Open AccessArticle

An Observational Study of the Symmetric Boundary Layer Structure and Tropical Cyclone Intensity

by Yifang Ren, Jun A. Zhang, Jonathan L. Vigh, Ping Zhu, Hailong Liu, Xiang Wang and Joshua B. Wadler

Atmosphere 2020, 11(2), 158; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11020158 - 03 Feb 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 4075

Abstract

This study analyses Global Positioning System dropsondes to document the axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) boundary-layer structure, based on storm intensity. A total of 2608 dropsondes from 42 named TCs in the Atlantic basin from 1998 to 2017 are used in the composite analyses. [...] Read more.

This study analyses Global Positioning System dropsondes to document the axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) boundary-layer structure, based on storm intensity. A total of 2608 dropsondes from 42 named TCs in the Atlantic basin from 1998 to 2017 are used in the composite analyses. The results show that the axisymmetric inflow layer depth, the height of maximum tangential wind speed, and the thermodynamic mixed layer depth are all shallower in more intense TCs. The results also show that more intense TCs tend to have a deep layer of the near-saturated air inside the radius of maximum wind speed (RMW). The magnitude of the radial gradient of equivalent potential temperature (θ_e) near the RMW correlates positively with storm intensity. Above the inflow layer, composite structures of TCs with different intensities all possess a ring of anomalously cool temperatures surrounding the warm-core, with the magnitude of the warm-core anomaly proportional to TC intensity. The boundary layer composites presented here provide a climatology of how axisymmetric TC boundary layer structure changes with intensity. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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14 pages, 1448 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Influence of Tornado Activity, Impact, Memory, and Sentiment on Tornado Perception Accuracy among College Students

by Jason C. Senkbeil, Kelsey N. Ellis and Jacob R. Reed

Atmosphere 2019, 10(12), 732; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos10120732 - 22 Nov 2019

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2762

Abstract

A survey consisting of open-ended and closed responses was administered at three universities in the eastern USA. The home counties of survey participants represented climatological tornado risks spanning from rarely impacted to frequently impacted. The first objective of this research was to classify [...] Read more.

A survey consisting of open-ended and closed responses was administered at three universities in the eastern USA. The home counties of survey participants represented climatological tornado risks spanning from rarely impacted to frequently impacted. The first objective of this research was to classify climatological tornado risk for each county so that analyses of tornado perception accuracy could be evaluated. Perception accuracy was defined as the difference between what each participant perceived minus what actually happened. A manual classification scheme was created that uses the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook framework as county climatological risk categories. Participants from high-risk counties statistically significantly overestimated the numbers of violent tornadoes compared to participants from every risk category but moderate. Furthermore, participants from high-risk counties had significantly greater tornado impacts, thus validating the classification of high-risk. Participants from high, moderate, and slight-risk counties significantly overestimated the number of strong tornadoes compared to participants from enhanced-risk counties. There appeared to be no relationships between tornado memory and tornado sentiment with tornado perception accuracy. Possible explanations for the overestimation of the numbers of violent tornadoes in high-risk counties are discussed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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17 pages, 420 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Motivation for Heat Adaption: How Perception and Exposure Affect Individual Behaviors During Hot Weather in Knoxville, Tennessee

by Alisa L. Hass and Kelsey N. Ellis

Atmosphere 2019, 10(10), 591; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos10100591 - 02 Oct 2019

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 3954

Abstract

Heat is the deadliest meteorological hazard; however, those exposed to heat often do not feel they are in danger of heat-health effects and do not take precautions to avoid heat exposure. Socioeconomic factors, such as the high cost of running air conditioning, might [...] Read more.

Heat is the deadliest meteorological hazard; however, those exposed to heat often do not feel they are in danger of heat-health effects and do not take precautions to avoid heat exposure. Socioeconomic factors, such as the high cost of running air conditioning, might prevent people from taking adaption measures. We assessed via a mixed-methods survey how residents of urban Knoxville, Tennessee, (n = 86) describe and interpret their personal vulnerability during hot weather. Thematic analyses reveal that many respondents describe uncomfortably hot weather based on its consequences, such as health effects and the need to change normal behavior, which misaligns with traditional heat-communication measures using specific weather conditions. Only 55% of those who perceived excessive heat as dangerous cited health as a cause for concern. Respondents who have experienced health issues during hot weather were more likely to perceive heat as dangerous and take actions to reduce heat exposure. Social cohesion was not a chief concern for our respondents, even though it has been connected to reducing time-delayed heat-health effects. Results support using thematic analyses, an underutilized tool in climatology research, to improve understanding of public perception of atmospheric hazards. We recommend a multi-faceted approach to addressing heat vulnerability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Hazards)

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