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Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their...
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Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (7 April 2023) | Viewed by 25039

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A printed edition of this Special Issue is available here.

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Jinping Liu

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Guest Editor
1. College of Surveying and Geo-informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
2. Hydraulics and Geotechnics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, BE-3001 Leuven, Belgium
Interests: extreme climatic events; climate change and human health impacts; hydrology modeling; water resources; vegetation remote sensing
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Quoc Bao Pham

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Guest Editor
Faculty of Natural Sciences, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Będzińska Street 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland
Interests: hydrology; groundwater; machine learning; water resources management; climate change; GIS; remote sensing
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Arfan Arshad

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Guest Editor
Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74075, USA
Interests: geospatial modeling; urban cover changes; climate extremes; human impact assessment; environmental footprints
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Masoud Jafari Shalamzari

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Guest Editor
Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
Interests: heat waves; climate models; remote sensing; vegetation dynamics
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In recent decades, human activities, along with climatic variabilities, have adversely impacted socioeconomic and environmental conditions, leading to a growing drought susceptibility mainly in arid and semiarid parts of the world. Droughts are associated with the dynamic nature of human–environment interactions in ecosystems at different scales and dimensions, resulting in a wide range of issues such as soil and air quality deterioration, vegetation degradation, water scarcity, human migration, urban water supply issues, a reduction in hydropower production, etc., and so concerted efforts are required to bring all emergent concerns and their related processes together into a unified framework to serve as a roadmap for research and management. This Special Issue plans to attempt to offer a closer look into the dynamic nature of the natural and anthropogenic factors in generating compound droughts (hydro-meteorological, agricultural, and socioeconomic), with the ultimate goal of understanding the climate system's vulnerability, underlying effects of droughts, exposure, and sensitivity of the system, which could be used to kick-start the adaptation planning processes and reduce the drought risk in the 21st century. Scientists/researchers are encouraged to introduce ideas and concepts related to droughts, their classifications, assessment, relationships with large-scale climate patterns, and complex land–atmosphere feedback mechanisms by incorporating various data sources such as observations or modeling studies, targeted field campaigns, or long-term measurements ranging from local to regional spatial scales.

Dr. Jinping Liu
Dr. Quoc Bao Pham
Dr. Arfan Arshad
Dr. Masoud Jafari Shalamzari
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • roles of atmospheric circulation pattens in the development of droughts
  • natural and anthropogenic influences
  • climate extremes
  • hydrological extremes
  • land–atmosphere interactions (emergent risks associated with droughts)
  • drought vulnerability, risk, and impact assessments
  • sensitivity and adaptive capacity of environmental systems
  • weather hazards and warning systems
  • compound droughts
  • drought increases CO2 footprints
  • drought increases water scarcity
  • effects on agricultural system
  • downscaling of climate projections to inform droughts conditions over local scale
  • numerical simulation models, resilience strategies, and decision-making tools

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Published Papers (14 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 5535 KiB  
Article
Extremeness Comparison of Regional Drought Events in Yunnan Province, Southwest China: Based on Different Drought Characteristics and Joint Return Periods
by Ruxin Zhao, Siquan Yang, Hongquan Sun, Lei Zhou, Ming Li, Lisong Xing and Rong Tian
Atmosphere 2023, 14(7), 1153; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos14071153 - 16 Jul 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1077
Abstract
Droughts frequently occur in Yunnan province, the southwest of China, which leads to crop loss, ecosystem degradation, and difficulties in drinking water for people. In order to assess and compare the extremeness for different drought events, this study quantified it by utilizing the [...] Read more.
Droughts frequently occur in Yunnan province, the southwest of China, which leads to crop loss, ecosystem degradation, and difficulties in drinking water for people. In order to assess and compare the extremeness for different drought events, this study quantified it by utilizing the joint return period of drought multi-characteristics. Three characteristics at the regional scale: drought duration, severity, and affected areas were obtained by a simple regional drought process methodology, and their relationship was considered based on three types of Archimedean Copulas. Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at a six-month time scale was selected as the optimal drought index based on actual drought impact data. Results showed that drought events in Yunnan province were mostly short drought duration, low severity, and high drought-affected areas. By comparing the historical reported droughts’ loss, the return periods of drought events calculated by the combination of duration and severity and drought-affected area are much more suitable to reflect the real drought situations than those calculated by one- or two-dimensional drought characteristics, especially for extreme drought events. On average, the drought in Yunnan province was almost shown a return period of ~10 yr. The frequency of droughts in Yunnan province has gradually increased due to climate change, and droughts with ~100 yr or even larger return periods occurred in 2009–2010 and 2011–2013. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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19 pages, 7424 KiB  
Article
Identification and Spatiotemporal Migration Analysis of Groundwater Drought Events in the North China Plain
by Jia Huang, Lianhai Cao, Lei Wang, Liwei Liu, Baobao Yu and Long Han
Atmosphere 2023, 14(6), 961; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos14060961 - 31 May 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1142
Abstract
Groundwater droughts can explain developments and changes in groundwater from a climatological perspective. The North China Plain (NCP) is a typical underground funnel area. Therefore, groundwater drought studies in the NCP can provide better understanding of the local hydrogeological characteristics from new perspectives. [...] Read more.
Groundwater droughts can explain developments and changes in groundwater from a climatological perspective. The North China Plain (NCP) is a typical underground funnel area. Therefore, groundwater drought studies in the NCP can provide better understanding of the local hydrogeological characteristics from new perspectives. In this paper, the GRACE groundwater drought index (GGDI) was used to evaluate groundwater drought events in the NCP. Additionally, a new method was proposed in this study for investigating groundwater drought events at the spatiotemporal scale. On this basis, the centroid theory was used to construct an appropriate groundwater drought migration model for the NCP. The results showed that (1) the groundwater drought frequency in the NCP was 24.54%. In addition, the most severe groundwater drought events in the study occurred in March 2020. (2) In total, 49 groundwater drought events occurred in the NCP over the 2003–2020 period. The most intense groundwater drought event occurred over the June 2018–December 2020 period (DE.49), covering the entire study area. DE.29 was the second most intense groundwater drought event over the August 2012–September 2013 period (14 months), resulting in a maximum arid area of 75.57% of the entire study area. (3) The migration of the groundwater drought events was in the southwest–northeast and northeast–southwest directions, which was consistent with the terrain inclination, while most of the groundwater drought centroids were concentrated in Area II. The groundwater drought event identification method and the groundwater drought migration model were effective and reliable for assessing groundwater drought events in the NCP and provided a better understanding of developments and changes in groundwater droughts, which is of great practical significance and theoretical value for the rational development and use of groundwater resources, as well as for guiding industrial and agricultural activities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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20 pages, 24928 KiB  
Article
Application of Informer Model Based on SPEI for Drought Forecasting
by Jiandong Shang, Bei Zhao, Haobo Hua, Jieru Wei, Guoyong Qin and Gongji Chen
Atmosphere 2023, 14(6), 951; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos14060951 - 29 May 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1786
Abstract
To increase the accuracy of drought prediction, this study proposes a drought forecasting method based on the Informer model. Taking the Yellow River Basin as an example, the forecasting accuracies of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Informer [...] Read more.
To increase the accuracy of drought prediction, this study proposes a drought forecasting method based on the Informer model. Taking the Yellow River Basin as an example, the forecasting accuracies of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Informer models on multiple timescales of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were compared and analyzed. The results indicate that, with an increasing timescale, the forecasting accuracies of the ARIMA, LSTM, and Informer models improved gradually, reaching the best accuracy on the 24-month timescale. However, the predicted values of ARIMA, as well as those of LSTM, were significantly different from the true SPEI values on the 1-month timescale. The Informer model was more accurate than the ARIMA and LSTM models on all timescales, indicating that Informer can widely capture the information of the input series over time and is more effective in long-term prediction problems. Furthermore, Informer can significantly enhance the precision of SPEI prediction. The predicted values of the Informer model were closer to the true SPEI values, and the forecasted SPEI trends complied with the actual trends. The Informer model can model different timescales adaptively and, therefore, better capture relevance on different timecales. The NSE values of the Informer model for the four meteorological stations on SPEI24 were 0.968, 0.974, 0.972, and 0.986. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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18 pages, 4210 KiB  
Article
Drought in Shanxi Province Based on Remote Sensing Drought Index Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics
by Yuanyuan Xu, Yuxin Chen, Jiajia Yang, Weilai Zhang, Yongxiang Wang, Jiaxuan Wei and Wuxue Cheng
Atmosphere 2023, 14(5), 799; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos14050799 - 27 Apr 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1292
Abstract
Drought is a natural disaster with long duration and which causes great harm. Studying the characteristics of drought evolution in Shanxi Province can grasp the regularity of drought occurrence and provide a basis for drought prevention and resistance. This study utilizes MODIS products [...] Read more.
Drought is a natural disaster with long duration and which causes great harm. Studying the characteristics of drought evolution in Shanxi Province can grasp the regularity of drought occurrence and provide a basis for drought prevention and resistance. This study utilizes MODIS products to analyze and quantify the extent of drought in a specific area. The study calculates several indices, including the Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI), Vegetation Supply Water Index (VSWI), and Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), using variables such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), Evapotranspiration (ET), and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET). Additionally, three drought indices are analyzed for correlation with the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), and the most suitable drought index is selected through validation with typical drought events. Finally, the selected indices are used to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the study area from 2001 to 2020. The results show: (1) CWSI and sc-PDSI have a strong correlation both in terms of time and spatial analysis. Furthermore, CWSI has been shown to be more effective in monitoring significant drought events. (2) The multi-year mean values of CWSI range from 0.71 to 0.85, with a significant degree of spatial heterogeneity. In the study area, the percentage of the area affected by different levels of drought is in the following order: moderate drought > severe drought > mild drought > no drought. (3) The trend of CWSI changes shows that the drought situation in Shanxi Province has been alleviated from 2001 to 2020, and the overall spatial distribution indicates that the degree of drought alleviation in the southern region is greater than that in the northern region. The turning point from drought to wetness in the study area was in 2011, showing the overall characteristic of “dry in the north and wet in the south”. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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18 pages, 5156 KiB  
Article
Drought Vulnerability Assessment of Winter Wheat Using an Improved Entropy–Comprehensive Fuzzy Evaluation Method: A Case Study of Henan Province in China
by Binbin Yuan, Shidong Wang and Linghui Guo
Atmosphere 2023, 14(5), 779; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos14050779 - 25 Apr 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1064
Abstract
The percentage precipitation anomaly was used to index the effect of drought on winter wheat grown in Henan Province for the years 2011–2020. Of interest was the effect of drought on winter wheat yield and the accurate assessment of the damage done to [...] Read more.
The percentage precipitation anomaly was used to index the effect of drought on winter wheat grown in Henan Province for the years 2011–2020. Of interest was the effect of drought on winter wheat yield and the accurate assessment of the damage done to winter wheat by drought events in order to improve the risk management of winter wheat in the context of drought hazards. The spatial and temporal variability of winter wheat drought risk in Henan Province was determined by analysis of climate data, winter wheat yield, cultivated area, and socio-economic data across three dimensions: exposure or susceptibility to drought, economic–environmental sensitivity to drought, and capacity to resist drought. A drought vulnerability assessment model, based on the entropy value method and a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation, was developed to assess the drought vulnerability of winter wheat in Henan Province compared with the percentage precipitation anomaly model. (1) There were significant spatial differences in the frequency of the five drought categories devised. (2) Areas in which there was a high frequency of mild drought events were mainly in northern and western Henan and southwestern Henan, with the frequency ranging from 17% to 29%. (3) Areas in which there was a high frequency of moderate drought events were mainly in northwestern, central, and southeastern Henan. (4) Areas in which there was a high frequency of severe and extreme drought were mainly in Anyang in northern Henan, Zhengzhou in central Henan, and Xinyang and surrounding areas in southern Henan, with the frequency ranging from 7% to 9.70%. (5) Winter wheat drought vulnerability shows an overall annually increasing trend. The susceptibility dimension had the greatest influence of the three dimensions, followed by economic–environmental sensitivity and then drought resistance, which had the least impact. The model created in this study shows the influence of drought on winter wheat production more intuitively than a conventional fuzzy synthesis, and the results can inform decision-making in winter wheat drought risk assessment and management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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13 pages, 10606 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Watershed Warming and Wetting: The Response to Atmospheric Circulation in Arid Areas of Northwest China
by Taohui Li, Aifeng Lv, Wenxiang Zhang and Yonghao Liu
Atmosphere 2023, 14(1), 151; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos14010151 - 10 Jan 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1339
Abstract
The Tarim Basin is a large inland arid basin in the arid region of northwest China and has been experiencing significant “warming and wetting” since 1987. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to determine whether the climate transition phenomenon occurred [...] Read more.
The Tarim Basin is a large inland arid basin in the arid region of northwest China and has been experiencing significant “warming and wetting” since 1987. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to determine whether the climate transition phenomenon occurred in the Tarim Basin as well as the role of atmospheric circulation in this process. We use meteorological data and atmospheric circulation indexes to study the seasonal trends of climate change in this region from 1987 to 2020 to understand how they are affected by atmospheric circulation. The findings show that, from 1987 to 2020, the Tarim Basin experienced significant warming and wetting; with the exception of the winter scale, all other seasonal scales exhibited a clear warming and wetting trend. From the perspective of spatial distribution, most of the areas showed a significant warming trend, and the warming amplitude around the basin is greater than that in the central area of the basin. However, there are significant regional differences in precipitation change rates. Meanwhile, wavelet analysis shows that there is a significant oscillation period of 17–20 years between climate change and the atmospheric circulation index during 1987–2020. The correlation analysis shows that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the main influencing factors of climate change in the Tarim Basin at different seasonal scales, while the teleconnection of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is low and the PDO dominates the summer and autumn temperature changes in the Tarim Basin. The research results of this paper show that, despite the warming and wetting trends since 1987 in the Tarim Basin, the climate type did not change. From 1987 to 2020, the main teleconnection factors of climate change in the Tarim Basin were PDO and ENSO. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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18 pages, 7639 KiB  
Article
Mapping Potential Soil Water Erosion and Flood Hazard Zones in the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin, China
by Shan Chen, Shaocheng Zhu, Xin Wen, Huaiyong Shao, Chengjin He, Jiaguo Qi, Lingfeng Lv, Longbin Han and Shuhan Liu
Atmosphere 2023, 14(1), 49; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos14010049 - 27 Dec 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1570
Abstract
The ubiquity of soil water erosion in the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin leads to a series of natural hazards, including landslides, debris flows and floods. In this study, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model (RUSLE) was used to quantify potential soil water [...] Read more.
The ubiquity of soil water erosion in the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin leads to a series of natural hazards, including landslides, debris flows and floods. In this study, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model (RUSLE) was used to quantify potential soil water erosion, while the Height Above Nearest Drainage model (HAND) was used to delimit potential flood hazard zones. Remote sensing and geographic information system technologies were employed to spatialize the results, which showed that the annual soil loss from water erosion was less than 1239 t ha−1 y−1. The total soil loss was estimated to be over 108 × 106 tons, of which about 13 × 106 tons (12.04% of the total) occurred from the agricultural land in the downstream valley. Soil erosion mapping was performed using six levels of soil erosion intensity and the effects of precipitation, land use/land cover and topography on soil erosion were revealed. Increases in precipitation and slope gradient significantly increased the soil loss rate, while the maximum rate of soil loss occurred from densely vegetated land, reaching 9.41 t ha−1 y−1, which was inconsistent with erosion preconceptions for this land type. This may be due to a combination of the region’s unique climate of high intensity rainfall and steep slopes. Flood hazard mapping showed that all regional cities were located in a flood hazard zone and that, within the total basin area (~258 × 105 ha), 9.84% (2,537,622 ha) was in a high flood occurrence area, with an additional 1.04% in aa vulnerable to moderate flood hazard area. Approximately 1.54% of the area was in a low flood risk area and 4.15% was in a very low flood risk area. The results of this study provide an initial identification of high-risk soil water erosion and flood hazard locations in the basin and provide a foundation upon which decision-makers can develop water and soil conservation and flood prevention policies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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25 pages, 5221 KiB  
Article
Integrated SWAT-MODFLOW Modeling-Based Groundwater Adaptation Policy Guidelines for Lahore, Pakistan under Projected Climate Change, and Human Development Scenarios
by Rana Ammar Aslam, Sangam Shrestha, Muhammad Nabeel Usman, Shahbaz Nasir Khan, Sikandar Ali, Muhammad Shoaib Sharif, Muhammad Waqas Sarwar, Naeem Saddique, Abid Sarwar, Mohib Ullah Ali and Arfan Arshad
Atmosphere 2022, 13(12), 2001; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13122001 - 29 Nov 2022
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2636
Abstract
Urban aquifers are experiencing increasing pressures from climate change, land-use change, and abstraction, consequently, altering groundwater levels and threatening sustainable water availability, consumption, and utilization. Sustainability in such areas requires the adaptation of groundwater resources to these stressors. Consequently, this research made projections [...] Read more.
Urban aquifers are experiencing increasing pressures from climate change, land-use change, and abstraction, consequently, altering groundwater levels and threatening sustainable water availability, consumption, and utilization. Sustainability in such areas requires the adaptation of groundwater resources to these stressors. Consequently, this research made projections about future climate, land use, and abstraction, examines how these drives will affect groundwater levels, and then proposes adaptation strategies to reduce the impact on Lahore’s groundwater resources. The objectives are achieved using an integrated modeling framework involving applications of Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models. The results indicated a projected rise in Tmin by ~2.03 °C and Tmax by ~1.13 °C by 2100 under medium (RCP 4.5) and high-end (RCP 8.5) scenarios, respectively. Future precipitation changes for mid, near and far periods are projected to be −1.0%, 25%, and 24.5% under RCP4.5, and −17.5%, 27.5%, and 29.0% under RCP8.5, respectively. The built-up area in the Lahore division will dominate agricultural land in the future with an expansion from 965 m2 to 3716 km2 by the year 2100 under R1S1 (R2S2) land-use change scenarios (significant at p = 5%). The future population of the Lahore division will increase from 6.4 M to 24.6 M (28.7 M) by the year 2100 under SSP1 (SSP3) scenarios (significant at p = 5%). Groundwater level in bult-up areas will be projected to decline from 185 m to 125 m by 2100 due to increasing groundwater abstraction and expansion in the impermeable surface under all scenarios. In contrast, agricultural areas show a fluctuating trend with a slight increase in groundwater level due to decreasing abstraction and multiple recharge sources under combined scenarios. The results of this study can be a way forward for groundwater experts and related institutions to understand the potential situation of groundwater resources in the Lahore division and implement adaptation strategies to counteract diminishing groundwater resources. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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18 pages, 6060 KiB  
Article
Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Drought and Its Driving Factors in Yangtze River Basin Based on SPEI
by Jieru Wei, Zhixiao Wang, Lin Han, Jiandong Shang and Bei Zhao
Atmosphere 2022, 13(12), 1986; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13121986 - 28 Nov 2022
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 1922
Abstract
Using a dataset of 114 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1980–2019, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration model for multiple time scales, and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of [...] Read more.
Using a dataset of 114 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1980–2019, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration model for multiple time scales, and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of drought in the Yangtze River Basin were analyzed by combining spatial and temporal analysis methods as well as geodetector. The main results obtained are as follows: (1) The climate of the Yangtze River Basin is an overall wet trend, and the trend of summer drought is more similar to the annual scale trend. (2) Most areas in the Yangtze River Basin showed mild drought or no drought, and there is little difference in drought condition among the Yangtze River Basin regions. The areas with drought conditions are mainly distributed in the southwest and east of the Yangtze River Basin. (3) There are significant seasonal differences in drought conditions in all regions, and the drought condition is more different in autumn compared to spring, summer and winter. (4) The average annual precipitation and elevation factors are the dominant driving factors of drought in the Yangtze River Basin, and the double-factor interaction has a greater influence on the drought variation in the Yangtze River Basin than the single-factor effect, indicating that the difference of drought condition in the Yangtze River Basin is the result of the combination of multiple factors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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14 pages, 3793 KiB  
Article
Remote-Sensing Drought Monitoring in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2020 Based on MODIS Data
by Yuxin Chen, Jiajia Yang, Yuanyuan Xu, Weilai Zhang, Yongxiang Wang, Jiaxuan Wei and Wuxue Cheng
Atmosphere 2022, 13(12), 1970; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13121970 - 25 Nov 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1195
Abstract
In this study, four drought monitoring indices were selected to simulate drought monitoring in the study area and a correlation analysis was conducted using the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index (sc-PDSI) to screen for the most suitable drought monitoring index for the study area. [...] Read more.
In this study, four drought monitoring indices were selected to simulate drought monitoring in the study area and a correlation analysis was conducted using the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index (sc-PDSI) to screen for the most suitable drought monitoring index for the study area. Then, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of drought in the study area were discussed and analyzed. The results showed that the Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) was most suitable for drought monitoring in the Sichuan Province. CWSI had the best monitoring in grasslands (r = 0.48), the worst monitoring in woodlands (r = 0.43) and the highest fitting degree of overall correlation (r = 0.47). The variation of drought time in the Sichuan Province showed an overall trend of wetting and the drought situation was greatly alleviated. In the past 20 years, the dry years in the Sichuan Province were from 2001 to 2007, in which the driest years were 2006 and 2007; 2012–2013 was the transition interval between drought and wet; any year from 2013 to 2020 was a wet year, showing a transition trend of “drought first and then wet”. The spatial distribution of drought was greater in the south than in the north and greater in the west than in the east. Panzhihua City and the southern part of the Liangshan Prefecture were the most arid areas, while the non-arid areas were the border zone between the western Sichuan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin. Looking at the spatial distribution of drought, “mild drought” accounted for the largest percentage of the total area (60%), mainly concentrated in the western Sichuan plateau. The second largest was “drought free” (33%), mostly concentrated in the transition area between the western Sichuan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin (western Aba Prefecture, Ya’an City, Leshan City and northern Liangshan Prefecture). The area of “moderate drought” accounted for a relatively small proportion (6%), mainly concentrated in Panzhihua City, the surrounding areas of Chengdu City and the southern area of the Liangshan Prefecture. The area of severe drought accounted for the least (1%), mostly distributed in Panzhihua City and a small part in the southern Liangshan Prefecture. The drought center ranged from 101.8° E to 103.6° E and 28.8° N to 29.8° N, with the movement trend of the drought center moving from the northeast to the southwest to the northeast. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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13 pages, 1673 KiB  
Article
Impact of Climate Change and Drought Attributes in Nigeria
by Akinwale T. Ogunrinde, Philip G. Oguntunde, Akinola S. Akinwumiju, Johnson T. Fasinmirin, David A. Olasehinde, Quoc Bao Pham, Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh and Duong Tran Anh
Atmosphere 2022, 13(11), 1874; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111874 - 10 Nov 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2067
Abstract
Data from historical observatories and future simulations were analyzed using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, which covered the period from 1951 to 2100. In order to characterize the drought, three widely used drought indicators were used: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), [...] Read more.
Data from historical observatories and future simulations were analyzed using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, which covered the period from 1951 to 2100. In order to characterize the drought, three widely used drought indicators were used: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the reconnaissance drought index (RDI), and the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The ensemble of the seven (7) GCMs that used RCA-4 was able to capture several useful characteristics of Nigeria’s historical climatology. Future climates were forecasted to be wetter than previous periods during the study period based on the output of drought characteristics as determined by SPI. SPEI and RDI predicted drier weather, in contrast. SPEI and RDI’s predictions must have been based on the effect of rising temperatures brought on by global warming as depicted by RCP 8.5, which would then have an impact on the rate of evapotranspiration. According to drought studies using the RCP 8.5 scenario, rising temperatures will probably cause more severe/extreme droughts to occur more frequently. SPEI drought frequency changes in Nigeria often range from 0.75 (2031–2060) to 1.80 (2071–2100) month/year, whereas RDI changes typically range from 0.30 (2031–2060) to 0.60 (2071–2100) month/year. The frequency of drought incidence has recently increased and is now harder to forecast. Since the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have few more years left to be completed, drastic efforts must be made to create climate-resilient systems that can tackle the effects that climate change may have on the water resources and agricultural sectors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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16 pages, 3224 KiB  
Article
Estimating FAO Blaney-Criddle b-Factor Using Soft Computing Models
by Suthira Thongkao, Pakorn Ditthakit, Sirimon Pinthong, Nureehan Salaeh, Ismail Elkhrachy, Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh and Quoc Bao Pham
Atmosphere 2022, 13(10), 1536; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13101536 - 20 Sep 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1739
Abstract
FAO Blaney-Criddle has been generally an accepted method for estimating reference crop evapotranspiration. In this regard, it is inevitable to estimate the b-factor provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations Irrigation and Drainage Paper number 24. In this [...] Read more.
FAO Blaney-Criddle has been generally an accepted method for estimating reference crop evapotranspiration. In this regard, it is inevitable to estimate the b-factor provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations Irrigation and Drainage Paper number 24. In this study, five soft computing methods, namely random forest (RF), M5 model tree (M5), support vector regression with the polynomial function (SVR-poly), support vector regression with radial basis function kernel (SVR-rbf), and random tree (RT), were adapted to estimate the b-factor. And Their performances were also compared. The suitable hyper-parameters for each soft computing method were investigated. Five statistical indices were deployed to evaluate their performance, i.e., the coefficient of determination (r2), the mean absolute relative error (MARE), the maximum absolute relative error (MXARE), the standard deviation of the absolute relative error (DEV), and the number of samples with an error greater than 2% (NE > 2%). Findings reveal that SVR-rbf gave the highest performance among five soft computing models, followed by the M5, RF, SVR-poly, and RT. The M5 also derived a new explicit equation for b estimation. SVR-rbf provided a bit lower efficacy than the radial basis function network but outperformed the regression equations. Models’ Applicability for estimating monthly reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was demonstrated. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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20 pages, 4374 KiB  
Article
Applicability of a CEEMD–ARIMA Combined Model for Drought Forecasting: A Case Study in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
by Dehe Xu, Yan Ding, Hui Liu, Qi Zhang and De Zhang
Atmosphere 2022, 13(7), 1109; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13071109 - 14 Jul 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1477
Abstract
In the context of global warming, the increasing frequency of drought events has caused negative impacts on agricultural productivity and societal activities. However, the drought occurrences have not been well predicted by any single model, and precipitation may show nonstationary behavior. In this [...] Read more.
In the context of global warming, the increasing frequency of drought events has caused negative impacts on agricultural productivity and societal activities. However, the drought occurrences have not been well predicted by any single model, and precipitation may show nonstationary behavior. In this study, 60 years of monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2019 for the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region were analyzed. The standard precipitation index (SPI) was used to classify drought events. This study combined the strengths of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) to predict drought. First, based on the precipitation dataset, the SPI at timescales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months was calculated. Then, each of these SPI time series was predicted using the ARIMA model and the CEEMD–ARIMA combined model. Finally, the models′ performance was compared using statistical metrics, namely, root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), Willmott index (WI), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The results show that the following: (1) Compared with the ARIMA forecast value, the prediction results of the CEEMD–ARIMA model were in good agreement with the SPI values, indicating that the combined model outperformed the single model. (2) Two different models obtained the lowest accuracy for the SPI1 prediction and the highest accuracy for the SPI24 prediction. (3) The CEEMD–ARIMA model achieved higher prediction accuracy than the ARIMA model at each time scale. The most precise model during the test phase was the CEEMD–ARIMA model at SPI24 at Xiji Station, with error measures of MAE = 0.076, RMSE = 0.100, NSE = 0.994, KGE = 0.993, and WI = 0.999. Such findings will be essential for government to make decisions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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13 pages, 2239 KiB  
Article
Crop Yield, Nitrogen Recovery, and Soil Mineral Nitrogen Accumulation in Extremely Arid Oasis Cropland under Long-Term Fertilization Management
by Shimin Li, Xihe Wang, Changlin Kou, Jinling Lv and Jianhua Gao
Atmosphere 2022, 13(5), 754; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13050754 - 07 May 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1453
Abstract
Crop yield stability and soil mineral nitrogen (Nmin) have rarely been evaluated from a long-term perspective in the extremely arid cropland regions of China. Therefore, a nationwide experiment aimed to optimize fertilizer application and increase productivity and nitrogen use efficiency in gray desert [...] Read more.
Crop yield stability and soil mineral nitrogen (Nmin) have rarely been evaluated from a long-term perspective in the extremely arid cropland regions of China. Therefore, a nationwide experiment aimed to optimize fertilizer application and increase productivity and nitrogen use efficiency in gray desert soils was initiated in 1990. Eight combinations of chemical fertilizers (CK, N, NK, NP, and NPK), straw return (NPKS), and manure amendments (NPKM and NPKM+) were tested for 24 years on spring wheat, winter wheat, and maize. The results displayed that the yield of three crops from balanced fertilizer treatments (NPK, NPKS, NPKM, and NPKM+) did not differ significantly after 24 years; however, reliable yield stability due to lower coefficient of variation (CV) and higher nitrogen harvest index (NHI) were recorded for manure amendment treatments. Compared to NPKM, NHI was lower for the NPKM+ treatment, but crop yield and stability did not improve, suggesting that the appropriate choice for manure amendment is important for guaranteeing food security in extremely arid regions. Balanced fertilizer treatments resulted in lower Nmin residual in the 300 cm soil profile, compared to unbalanced fertilizer treatments. The NPKS treatment gave the lowest value. In the 0–100 cm soil profile, Nmin was higher in NPKM than in the NPK treatment, suggesting that straw or manure amendment can effectively maintain Nmin in the topsoil undercurrent cropland management in arid areas. The NPKM treatment had the highest crop nitrogen recovery rate and the lowest nitrogen losses, further illustrating that manure amendment has higher N retention potential. Overall, although Nmin residues are relatively high in these regions, balanced fertilizer treatments, especially NPKM and NPKS, are the optimum strategies in extremely arid regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Footprints of Drought: Focusing on Emerging Issues and Their Underlying Mechanisms)
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