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Real Option Valuation for Business Sustainability under Uncertainty

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2020) | Viewed by 11119

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Department of Mechanics, Mathematics and Management, Politecnico di Bari, Via Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, Italy
Interests: supply chain risk management; public private partnership; sustainable management of infrastructure; real options
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Business sustainability depends on the ability of firms to manage uncertainties embedded in investment and operating strategies. During the management of new projects, routines, and technologies, the firm’s constant objective should be to earn increasing returns by exploiting opportunities and limiting losses that could be created by uncertainty. In planning new investments and operating strategies, managers are aware that they can respond to new information over time as uncertainty resolves, and that this kind of flexibility affects not only their future decisions, but also their present ones. Traditional corporate investment and strategies evaluation is based on the discounted cash flow method (DCF) and uses the Net Present Value (NPV) as the main measure of their effectiveness. When this value is positive, the strategy or investment is approved, when negative, it is rejected, but this approach sometimes leads to the abandonment of profitable investments or strategies and the approval of non-sustainable ones. The reason for this is that traditional financial budgeting approaches, such as the DCF method, neglect the role of managerial flexibility, namely the future decisions that might need to be made over the course of investment or strategy to react to uncertainties, thus, exploiting opportunities or limiting losses caused by uncertainty, and making the business really sustainable. To support managers in their decision-making process in uncertain environments and ensure business sustainability, new techniques, and theories are sought. The real options approach has been suggested as a tool for strategic decision making because it can capture the flexibility to react to uncertainties over the course of investments and operating strategies. Providing a quantitative measurement of the flexibility value, Real Options Valuation (ROV) has thus become a cross-disciplinary area of research, with great potential to improve corporate decision-making while promoting better understanding of the role of uncertainty on investment activity in various sectors of the economy.

Despite the growing support the real option theory has been attracting in academia and its apparent relevance in business decisions, however, the application of real options to managerial practice and corporate decision making is still poor and often limited to a conceptual level.

This Special Issue aims to collect theoretical and empirical papers addressing advances on Real Option Valuation from a business sustainability perspective. In particular, we invite you to contribute to this issue by submitting comprehensive reviews, case studies or research articles, that are neither published nor currently under review by any other journals, discussing how ROV may contribute to ensuring the business sustainability under uncertainty. This will help bridge the current gap between theory and practice in ROV adoption in corporate decision making. Papers selected for this Special Issue are subject to a rigorous peer review procedure with the aim of rapid and wide dissemination of research results, developments, and applications.

Prof. Dr. Roberta Pellegrino
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Real options
  • Managerial Flexibility
  • Business sustainability
  • Uncertainty
  • Corporate decision-making

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

22 pages, 1361 KiB  
Article
Analyzing the Business Case for Hydrogen-Fuel Infrastructure Investments with Endogenous Demand in The Netherlands: A Real Options Approach
by Ye Li, Clemens Kool and Peter-Jan Engelen
Sustainability 2020, 12(13), 5424; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/su12135424 - 05 Jul 2020
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3647
Abstract
This paper explicitly incorporated the impact that realized investments in new transportation infrastructure have on adoption speed in a real option framework for taking sustainable investment decisions under uncertainty and analyzed the consequences of this dependence for optimal business investment strategies. We used [...] Read more.
This paper explicitly incorporated the impact that realized investments in new transportation infrastructure have on adoption speed in a real option framework for taking sustainable investment decisions under uncertainty and analyzed the consequences of this dependence for optimal business investment strategies. We used a modified Generalized Bass Model to shape the adoption diffusion process and incorporate this approach into an N-fold compound real option framework. We applied the combined model to the case study of the introduction of hydrogen fuel stations for hydrogen cars in the Netherlands. We performed a scenario analysis for six different transportation infrastructure investment strategies combined with four different parameterizations. The results show the risk of ignoring the potential interaction between the adoption process and the speed with which the required transportation infrastructure will become available. This may lead to suboptimal decisions with respect to the optimal timing of corporate investment spending, as well as with respect to the assessment of the overall feasibility of the project. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Real Option Valuation for Business Sustainability under Uncertainty)
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19 pages, 1714 KiB  
Article
To Wait or Not to Wait? Use of the Flexibility to Postpone Investment Decisions in Theory and in Practice
by Azzurra Morreale, Luigi Mittone, Thi-Thanh-Tam Vu and Mikael Collan
Sustainability 2020, 12(8), 3451; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/su12083451 - 23 Apr 2020
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2922
Abstract
Business sustainability and real options are closely connected, as real options are managerial flexibility that allows organizations to adapt to changes in their environment, thus making the organization more robust and economically sustainable. Studies in real options theory abound, yet there is still [...] Read more.
Business sustainability and real options are closely connected, as real options are managerial flexibility that allows organizations to adapt to changes in their environment, thus making the organization more robust and economically sustainable. Studies in real options theory abound, yet there is still a lack of evidence on whether people make decisions consistently with the predictions made by real options models. We run a laboratory experiment to study the role of option value and the laboratory time required to resolve uncertainty in individuals’ decision to price and adopt an option to wait. Specifically, we compare decision makers’ choices in two investment scenarios: One with a short time to maturity (implying a low option value), and another with a longer time to maturity (implying a high option value). In the lab, both scenarios are implemented with the waiting time of twenty and sixty minutes. Our results show that decision makers deviate from the theoretical predictions, recognizing the benefit of waiting, when the value of the option is higher, or when the waiting time is shorter. Our study does not only bring more insights into real options adoption at the individual level, but also emphasizes the great potential of behavioral and experimental approach to bridge the gap between theory and practice in the real options literature. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Real Option Valuation for Business Sustainability under Uncertainty)
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18 pages, 4932 KiB  
Article
Optimizing Risk Allocation in Public-Private Partnership Projects by Project Finance Contracts. The Case of Put-or-Pay Contract for Stranded Posidonia Disposal in the Municipality of Bari
by Antonella Lomoro, Giorgio Mossa, Roberta Pellegrino and Luigi Ranieri
Sustainability 2020, 12(3), 806; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/su12030806 - 22 Jan 2020
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 3265
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of the adoption of public support on the performance of public–private partnership (PPP) projects as perceived and measured by the different actors involved. In particular, the public support investigated by this study is put-or pay contracts, which are [...] Read more.
This paper investigates the impact of the adoption of public support on the performance of public–private partnership (PPP) projects as perceived and measured by the different actors involved. In particular, the public support investigated by this study is put-or pay contracts, which are often used in PPP projects financed through project finance to optimize risk allocation. In order to quantify the benefit gained by each party with and without the put-or-pay contract, cash flows of the project have been modeled by using the concept of real option, defined as the right without the obligation to make an action if it is convenient to do so. This concept enabled us to model and quantify the inner flexibility mechanism of put-or-pay contracts. With a put-or-pay agreement signed between the municipality, a (private) owner, and operator of a disposal facility, the owner of the facility has the faculty, without any obligation, to require the payment of penalty, if the municipality fails to meet its obligations. This means that the owner of the facility holds a series of European put options that can be exercised if it is convenient for the holder. The developed model has been used for studying the effectiveness of put-or-pay contracts for financing the treatment plant of a special dispose through project finance, i.e., the plant for disposal of marine plant posidonia. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Real Option Valuation for Business Sustainability under Uncertainty)
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