Recent Advances in the Assessment of Current and Future Flood Risk

Dear Colleagues,

Flood risk assessments aim to assess the likelihood and consequences of flooding in order to produce a comprehensive analysis that can guide the development of mitigation measures. However, both likelihood and consequences are challenging to determine with high confidence, particularly due to non-stationarity (e.g., resulting from catchment alterations or climate change), flood model uncertainty (e.g., structural or from boundary conditions), interaction with other hazards (e.g., earthquakes can increase the risk of levee breach), and uncertainty in damage or impact assessments (e.g., due to large variability between elements at risk, difficulties in including secondary or intangible impacts, and changing vulnerabilities). These uncertainties present considerable challenges for decision makers tasked with flood risk management; approaches are required that account for changes to risk and associated uncertainties.

This Special Issues focusses on recent advances that address these and other challenges in flood-risk assessment, with potential topics including but not limited to the following:

Non-stationarity: assessing flood risk under climate change, assessing flood risk in changing catchments, and flood frequency analysis considering non-stationarity.

Uncertainty in likelihoods: quantification of uncertainty in risk assessments; data and flood model uncertainty.

Uncertainty in consequences: damage modelling accounting for variability and change, transferability of damage models, and accounting for intangible impacts.

Hazard interactions: multi-hazard risk assessment; quantification of flood risks associated with multiple combined events.

New approaches: novel application of data science techniques to flood risk assessment and management.

From flood risk assessment to management: presentation and communication of risk and uncertainty; accounting for uncertain future change in flood-risk management.

Prof. Matthew Wilson
Guest Editor

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• flood-risk assessment
• flood likelihoods
• assessment of flood impacts
• multi-hazards
• non-stationarity
• climate change
• uncertainty
• flood mitigation