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The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology

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A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 October 2022) | Viewed by 17319

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Prof. Dr. Zhenxin Bao

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Guest Editor

1. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
2. Research Center for Climate Change, MWR, Nanjing 210029, China
Interests: water resources; hydrology; climate change

Dr. Guangyuan Kan

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Guest Editor

Research Center on Flood & Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China
Interests: hydrological–hydrodynamic modelling; groundwater modelling; parallel computing; artificial intelligence; remote sensing
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Water resources’ shortage, especially freshwater availability, is a critical issue for human beings and the sustainable development of the economy and society. In recent decades, the hydrological cycle and water resources’ system has been extensively influenced by climate change and anthropogenic activities. This has led to significant changes in water resources and hydrology, thereby enhancing the water shortage problem in some regions. Furthermore, global warming will continue in the next 30–50 years. Scientists must keep an eye on issues regarding climate change and water.

This Special Issue aims to discuss the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resources and hydrology, including but not limited to: changes in hydrology and water resources at a regional or global scale, the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change, impacts of land use, irrigation, reservoir, and other anthropogenic activities on water resources, hydrological modeling under changing environment, future water resources projection with GCMs and hydrological models, etc.

We are pleased to invite you to submit new scientific findings to this Special Issue and improve our understanding of climate change and water. In this Special Issue, original research articles and reviews are welcome.

We look forward to receiving your contributions.

Prof. Dr. Zhenxin Bao
Dr. Guangyuan Kan
Guest Editors

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Keywords

climate change
anthropogenic activities
water resources
hydrology
impact
hydrological model future scenarios
attribution
trend

Published Papers (11 papers)

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Research

19 pages, 2420 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Water Quality and Heavy Metal Environmental Risk on the Peri-Urban Karst Tropical Lake La Sabana, Yucatán Peninsula

by Sergio Cohuo, Antonia Moreno-López, Naydelin Y. Escamilla-Tut, Alondra M. Pérez-Tapia, Iván Santos-Itzá, Laura A. Macario-González, Carmen A. Villegas-Sánchez and Alejandro Medina-Quej

Water 2023, 15(3), 390; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w15030390 - 17 Jan 2023

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3290

Abstract

In the Yucatán Peninsula, anthropogenic activities such as urbanization and the final disposal of solids and wastewater critically impact aquatic systems. Here, we evaluated the anthropogenic-related environmental alteration of Lake La Sabana, located in the northern limits of one of the main cities of the Mexican Caribbean. We evaluated lake water quality, using physical, chemical, and microbiological indicators, and heavy metals in surficial sediment and fish tissue to evaluate the potential environmental risk. Multivariate analyses revealed that environmental conditions in La Sabana are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Medium to bad water quality was determined within different basins by the National Sanitation Foundation water quality index, related to the degree of anthropogenic influence at each zone. The central-south zones displayed critical microbiological values largely exceeding national standards. Heavy metals in sediment and fish tissue such as Zn and Hg were relatively low, but Hg concentrations threaten the ecological environment. Incipient wastewater treatment and its final disposal in La Sabana are mainly responsible for the changes in the trophic status and availability of nutrients, which in turn may have promoted changes in the biological structure and aquatic plant invasions. Lake La Sabana can be considered a model of the potential and sequential effects of anthropogenic alterations in the oligotrophic karst tropical aquatic systems in the Yucatan Peninsula. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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26 pages, 5556 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Multilayer Feedforward Artificial Neural Network Model to Forecast Florida Bay Salinity with Climate Change

by Anteneh Z. Abiy, Ruscena P. Wiederholt, Gareth L. Lagerwall, Assefa M. Melesse and Stephen E. Davis

Water 2022, 14(21), 3495; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14213495 - 01 Nov 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2308

Abstract

Florida Bay is a large, subtropical estuary whose salinity varies from yearly and seasonal changes in rainfall and freshwater inflows. Water management changes during the 20th century led to a long-term reduction in inflows that increased mean salinity, and the frequency and severity of hypersalinity. Climate change may exacerbate salinity conditions in Florida Bay; however, future salinity conditions have not been adequately evaluated. Here, we employed a Multilayer Feedforward Artificial Neural Network model to develop baseline salinity models for nearshore and offshore sites. Then, we examined the impacts of climate change on salinity using forecasted changes in various input variables under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Salinity could rise by 30% and 70% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forecasts, respectively. Climate change affected nearshore salinity significantly more, which rapidly fluctuated between mesohaline (5 to 18 PSU) and metahaline (40 to 55 PSU) to hypersaline conditions (>55 PSU). Offshore salinities ranged between euhaline (30 to 40 PSU) to metahaline (40 to 55 PSU) conditions. Our study suggests that increased freshwater flow would help maintain suitable estuarine conditions in Florida Bay during climate change, while our novel modeling approach can guide further Everglades restoration efforts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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20 pages, 4532 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Trends and Changes in Hydrologic Cycle in the Huanghuaihai River Basin from 1956 to 2018

by Xiaotian Yang, Zhenxin Bao, Guoqing Wang, Cuishan Liu and Junliang Jin

Water 2022, 14(14), 2148; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14142148 - 06 Jul 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1516

Abstract

The Huanghuaihai River Basin (HRB) is one of the most prominent areas of water resource contradiction in China. It is of great significance to explore the relationship between water balance in this area for a deep understanding of the response of the water cycle to climate change. In this study, machine learning methods are used to prolong the actual evapotranspiration (ET) of the basin on the time scale and explore water balances calculated from various sources. The following conclusions are obtained: (1) it is found that the simulation accuracy of Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) products in HRB is good. The annual average ET spatial distribution tends to increase from northwest to southeast; (2) three machine learning algorithms are used to construct the ET calculation model. The correlation coefficients of the three methods are all above 0.9 and the mean relative error values of random forest (RF) are all less than 30%. The RF has the best effect; (3) the relative errors of water balance in HRB from 1956–1979, 1980–2002 and 2003–2018 are less than ±5%, which indicates that the calculation of each element of the water cycle in the study area can well reflect the water balance relationship of the basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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18 pages, 7363 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Projection of Future Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities

by Mingming Xie, Chengfeng Zhang, Jianyun Zhang, Guoqing Wang, Junliang Jin, Cuishan Liu, Ruimin He and Zhenxin Bao

Water 2022, 14(13), 2006; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14132006 - 23 Jun 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1817

Abstract

Water resources are essential for human beings. It is of significance to project future water resources carrying capacity for water resources planning and management. In this study, the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin (HHHRB), where the contradiction between humans and water is prominent in China, is selected as the study area. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of regional water resources carrying capacity is constructed, the variation characteristics of water resources affected by climate change are analyzed based on the Budyko-Fu model, and considering the influence of transit water resources and water diversion projects, the future water resources carrying capacity in HHHRB under four future climate scenarios in CMIP6 is projected. The results indicate that: (1) On the whole, the carrying capacity of water resources in HHHRB is weak, and the spatial difference is great. (2) Under the background of climate change in the future, precipitation, temperature, and water resources in HHHRB all show increasing trends with changes of 0.90–12.59%, 1.22–1.80 °C, and 13.12–34.29%. (3) Under the background of global change, the water resources carrying capacity of most prefecture-level cities in HHHRB will be greatly improved in the future, and the spatial distributions of change rates among different climate scenarios are relatively consistent. (4) The construction of water diversion projects such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project has played an obvious role in improving the carrying capacity of water resources. The research results can provide important scientific and technological support for the rational allocation of water resources in the basin under the background of global change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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19 pages, 6116 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Inverse Trend in Runoff in the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers under Changing Environments

by Houfa Wu, Zhenxin Bao, Jie Wang, Guoqing Wang, Cuishan Liu, Yanqing Yang, Dan Zhang, Shuqi Liang and Chengfeng Zhang

Water 2022, 14(12), 1969; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14121969 - 20 Jun 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1545

Abstract

The source regions of the Yangtze River (SRYZ) and the Yellow River (SRYR) are sensitive areas of global climate change. Hence, determining the variation characteristics of the runoff and the main influencing factors in this region would be of great significance. In this study, different methods were used to quantify the contributions of climate change and other environmental factors to the runoff variation in the two regions, and the similarities and differences in the driving mechanisms of runoff change in the two regions were explored further. First, the change characteristics of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff were analyzed through the observational data of the basin. Then, considering the non-linearity and non-stationarity of the runoff series, a heuristic segmentation algorithm method was used to divide the entire study period into natural and impacted periods. Finally, the effects of climate change and other environmental factors on runoff variation in two regions were evaluated comprehensively using three methods, including the improved double mass curve (IDMC), the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ), and the Budyko-based elasticity (BBE). Results indicated that the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration increased during the study period in the two regions. However, the runoff increased in the SRYZ and decreased in the SRYR. The intra-annual distribution of the runoff in the SRYZ was unimodal during the natural period and bimodal in the SRYR. The mutation test indicated that the change points of annual runoff series in the SRYZ and SRYR occurred in 2004 and 1989, respectively. The attribution analysis methods yielded similar results that climate change had the greatest effect on the runoff variation in the SRYZ, with a contribution of 59.6%~104.6%, and precipitation contributed 65.3%~109.6% of the increase in runoff. In contrast, the runoff variation in the SRYR was mainly controlled by other environmental factors such as permafrost degradation, land desertification, and human water consumption, which contributed 83.7%~96.5% of the decrease in the runoff. The results are meaningful for improving the efficiency of water resources utilization in the SRYZ and SRYR. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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16 pages, 5482 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Quantify Runoff Reduction in the Zhang River Due to Water Diversion for Irrigation

by Xin Chen, Yanli Liu, Jianyun Zhang, Tiesheng Guan, Zhouliang Sun, Junliang Jin, Cuishan Liu, Guoqing Wang and Zhenxin Bao

Water 2022, 14(12), 1918; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14121918 - 14 Jun 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1773

Abstract

In order to systematically analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff, this paper takes the Zhanghe River Basin, which is greatly affected by human activities, as the research object, constructs an attribution analysis model of runoff changes based on historical data and the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The results show that the runoff of the watershed has significantly decreased in the past 60 years, in which the contribution rate of climate change is 36.2% and that of human activities is 63.8%. Among the climate change factors, precipitation is the main contributing factor and canal diversion is the main contributing factor among human activities. In addition, with the decrease in precipitation during the flood season and the increase in the crop planting area in the catchment, the distribution of canal water diversion has also changed, and the water consumption of summer crops has gradually become the main factor affecting canal water diversion. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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20 pages, 4922 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Analysis of Future Meteorological Drought Changes in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

by Lin Wang, Zhangkang Shu, Guoqing Wang, Zhouliang Sun, Haofang Yan and Zhenxin Bao

Water 2022, 14(12), 1896; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14121896 - 13 Jun 2022

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2068

Abstract

The Yellow River Basin is an important economic belt and key ecological reservation area in China. In the context of global warming, it is of great significance to project the drought disaster risk for ensuring water security and improving water resources management measures in practice. Based on the five Global Climate Models (GCMs) projections under three scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) released in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this study analyzed the characteristics of meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin in combination with SPEI indicators over 2015–2100. The result indicated that: (1) The GCMs from CMIP6 after bias correction performed better in reproducing the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation. The precipitation in the Yellow River Basin may exhibit increase trends from 2015 to 2100, especially under the SSP585 scenario. (2) The characteristics of meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin varied from different combination scenarios. Under the SSP126 scenario, the meteorological drought will gradually intensify from 2040 to 2099, while the drought intensity under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios will likely be higher than SSP126. (3) The spatial variation of meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin is heterogeneous and uncertain in different combination scenarios and periods. The drought tendency in the Loess Plateau will increase significantly in the future, and the drought frequency and duration in the main water conservation areas of the Yellow River Basin was projected to increase. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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20 pages, 6196 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Spatio-Temporal Matching and Nexus of Water–Energy–Food in the Yellow River Basin over the Last Two Decades

by Jie Wang, Zhenxin Bao, Jianyun Zhang, Guoqing Wang, Cuishan Liu, Houfa Wu and Yanqing Yang

Water 2022, 14(12), 1859; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14121859 - 09 Jun 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1792

Abstract

There is an important practical significance to understanding and evaluating the nexus of water, energy, and food (WEF) for ensuring regional security. The Yellow River Basin is a typical area displaying the contradiction between water, energy, and food development caused by the difference in resource distribution and production attributes. The nexus of the WEF system in the Yellow River Basin is systematically and innovatively studied from different perspectives. The aim of the research is to analyze the distribution and transfer direction of single resource elements, the matching and evolution of two kinds of resources linked by water resources, and finally the nexus based on Copula function. The results show that water resources, farmland, and energy production are concentrated in different areas, while the center of gravity shifted to the northwest, northeast, and west of the basin, respectively. For the resource balance of energy production and available industrial water resources, the matching degree has become worse in recent years. For the resource balance of farmland areas and available agricultural water resources, the matching degree in the most source area and middle reaches has improved, but the gap among different sub-regions has widened slightly. It is proven that the three-dimensional t Copula is well characterized by the nexus of the WEF system in the Yellow River Basin. The joint not exceeding the probability of the WEF (W ≤ 7.08 × 10¹⁰ m³, E ≤ 6.24 × 10⁸ TCE, F ≤ 4.23 × 10⁷ t) is about 0.3–0.4. The WEF system in the Yellow River Basin (G_n = 0.728 and 0.688) may still have certain security risks in the future compared with other regions in the world, which needs to be regulated by more reasonable policies. This study can provide a theoretical basis for ensuring regional water, energy, and food security. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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17 pages, 5919 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios

by Jinqiu Sun, Haofang Yan, Zhenxin Bao and Guoqing Wang

Water 2022, 14(11), 1778; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14111778 - 01 Jun 2022

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2734

Abstract

This paper looks at regional water security in eastern China in the context of global climate change. The response of runoff to climate change in the Qinhuai River Basin, a typical river in eastern China, was quantitatively investigated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the ensemble projection of multiple general circulation models (GCMs) under three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. The results show that the calibrated SWAT model is applicable to the Qinhuai River Basin and can accurately characterize the runoff process at daily and monthly scales with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), correlation coefficients (R), and the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) in calibration and validation periods being above 0.75 and relative errors (RE) are ±3.5%. In comparison to the baseline of 1980–2015, the mean annual precipitation in the future period (2025–2060) under the three emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 will probably increase by 5.64%, 2.60%, and 6.68% respectively. Correspondingly, the multiple-year average of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures are projected to rise by 1.6–2.1 °C and 1.4–2.0 °C, respectively, in 2025–2060. As a result of climate change, the average annual runoff will increase by 16.24%, 8.84%, and 17.96%, respectively, in the period of 2025–2060 under the three SSPs scenarios. The increase in runoff in the future will provide sufficient water supply to support socioeconomic development. However, increases in both rainfall and runoff also imply an increased risk of flooding due to climate change. Therefore, the impact of climate change on flooding in the Qinhuai River Basin should be fully considered in the planning of flood control and the basin’s development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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19 pages, 6559 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

An Analysis of the Impact of Groundwater Overdraft on Runoff Generation in the North China Plain with a Hydrological Modeling Framework

by Yimin Tian, Yanqing Yang, Zhenxin Bao, Xiaomeng Song, Guoqing Wang, Cuishan Liu, Houfa Wu and Yuchen Mo

Water 2022, 14(11), 1758; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14111758 - 30 May 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1653

Abstract

The long-term overexploitation of groundwater has caused sharp decreases in groundwater table depth and water storage in the agricultural areas of the North China Plain, which has led to obvious changes in the runoff process of the hydrological cycle, affecting the mechanism of runoff generation. Evaluating the impact of groundwater overdraft on runoff generation using hydrological models is the focus of the current work. Herein, a hydrological modeling framework is proposed based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The optimal parameters of the VIC model were determined by the synergetic calibration method, combining runoff, evaporation, and water storage levels. Meanwhile, a sliding calibration scheme was employed to explore the implied relationships among runoff coefficient, groundwater exploitation, and model parameters, particularly for the thickness of the second soil layer (i.e., parameter d₂), both for the whole period and the sliding window periods. Overall, the VIC model showed good applicability in the southern Haihe river plain, as demonstrated by the low absolute value of the relative error (RE) between the simulated and observed data for runoff and evaporation, with all REs < 8%, as well as large correlation coefficients (CC, all > 0.8). In addition, the CCs between the simulated and the observed data for water storage were all above 0.7. The calibrated optimal parameter d₂ increased as the sliding window period increased, and the average d₂ gradually increased from 0.372 m to 0.415 m, for which we also found high correlations with both the groundwater table and water storage levels. Additionally, increases in the parameter d₂ led to decreases in the runoff coefficient. From 2003 to 2016, the parameter d₂ increased from 0.36 m to 0.42 m, and the runoff coefficient decreased by about 0.02. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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15 pages, 3516 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Hydrological Change Detection and Process Simulation for a Semi-Arid Catchment in Northern China

by Yue Liu, Jianyun Zhang, Zhenxin Bao, Yanqing Yang and Guoqing Wang

Water 2022, 14(8), 1267; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w14081267 - 13 Apr 2022

Viewed by 1799

Abstract

In-depth understanding and accurate simulation of hydrological processes are of great significance for sustainable development and management of water resources. The study focused on a semi-arid catchment, the upper Tang River catchment in northern China, and investigated the performance of the RCCC-WBM model based on the detection results of trend, mutation, and periodicity. Results show that (1) as a result of climate change and intensive human activities, the observed runoff series after TFPW (trend-free pre-whiting) pretreatment presented a significant downward trend with the mutation point in 1996; (2) the abrupt change of air temperature series was also in 1996 with a significant rising trend, while the annual precipitation series exhibited an insignificant declining trend with no obvious mutation during 1973–2014; (3) the precipitation and runoff series had periodic variations roughly 7a multiples with the periodic oscillation strongest around 14a, while the air temperature series showed only one dominant period of 28a; (4) the RCCC-WBM model performed well in discharge simulation before the mutation year but gradually lost its stability after 1996, which was mainly affected by anthropogenic activities. It is essential to accurately identify the characteristics of hydrological elements and improve the applicability of hydrological models in the changing environment in future studies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources and Hydrology)

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