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Water
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Flood Frequency Analysis and Modelling
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Flood Frequency Analysis and Modelling

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Urban Water Management".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 January 2024) | Viewed by 6426

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Khaled Haddad

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
School of Engineering, Design and Built Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, Australia
Interests: hydrology; floods; statistical methods; environmental modeling; education
Prof. Dr. Ataur Rahman

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Core Member, Renewable Energy and Water Research Group (Sustainability and Resilience Theme), School of Engineering, Design and Built Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, Australia
Interests: water and environmental engineering; hydrology; climate change impacts; floods; water-sensitive urban design; rainwater harvesting; engineering education
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue focuses on flood estimation in catchments using flood frequency analysis and different modelling methods.

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is often adopted to estimate design floods, which are needed for many water resources management tasks, e.g., to size hydraulic structures and to carry out flood risk and ecology assessments, as well as flood insurance studies. Therefore, FFA remains an active area of  interest and research. The most direct method of design flood estimation is at-site FFA analysis, which relies on a relatively long period of recorded streamflow data at a given site. Hence, the selection of an appropriate probability distribution-associated parameter estimation procedure, accounting for climate change and uncertainty, is of prime importance in at-site FFA.  With recent advancements in statistical and computational modelling and computing facilities, FFA estimates can be assessed more reliabily and efficiently.

We invite original research articles that contribute to the continuing efforts to understand hydrological data and the complex hydrological processeses that it exhibits to further research more reliable FFA estimates. This Special Issue also welcomes manuscripts on uncertainty analysis in FFA and the application of flood modeling to support decision making. 

Potential topics for this Special Issue include, but are not limited to:

  • Flood frequency analysis: advances in methods, regional case studies, variability, and trend analysis.
  • Annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold flood frequency analysis.
  • Impacts of climate change on flood frequency analysis: stationary vs. non-stationary flood frequency analysis.
  • Uncertainty in flood frequency analysis.
  • Impact of rating curve errors on flood frequency analysis.
  • Impact of distributional assumptions, parameter estimates, record lengths and outliers on flood frequency analysis.
  • Bayesian methods and Monte Carlo simulation in flood frequency analysis.
  • Goodness-of-fit methods for flood frequency analysis.
  • Bivariate flood frequency analysis using copulas.
  • Historical and paleohydrologic information in flood frequency analysis.
  • Entropy-based flood frequency analysis.
  • Urbanization effects on flood frequency analysis.
  • Insights and lessons learnt from streamflow data preparation for flood frequency analysis.
  • Regional flood frequency analysis including and not limited to linear and nonlinear modelling approaches.

Dr. Khaled Haddad
Prof. Dr. Ataur Rahman
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • flood frequency analysis
  • Bayesian
  • regional flood frequency analysis
  • distributions
  • uncertainty
  • modelling
  • annual maximum data
  • peaks-over-threshold data

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

20 pages, 8888 KiB  
Article
A Novel Estimation of the Composite Hazard of Landslides and Flash Floods Utilizing an Artificial Intelligence Approach
by Mohamed Wahba, Mustafa El-Rawy, Nassir Al-Arifi and Mahmoud M. Mansour
Water 2023, 15(23), 4138; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w15234138 - 29 Nov 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1035
Abstract
Landslides and flash floods are significant natural hazards with substantial risks to human settlements and the environment, and understanding their interconnection is vital. This research investigates the hazards of landslides and floods in two adopted basins in the Yamaguchi and Shimane prefectures, Japan. [...] Read more.
Landslides and flash floods are significant natural hazards with substantial risks to human settlements and the environment, and understanding their interconnection is vital. This research investigates the hazards of landslides and floods in two adopted basins in the Yamaguchi and Shimane prefectures, Japan. This study utilized ten environmental variables alongside categories representing landslide-prone, non-landslide, flooded, and non-flooded areas. Employing a machine-learning approach, namely, a LASSO regression model, we generated Landslide Hazard Maps (LHM), Flood Hazard Maps (FHM), and a Composite Hazard Map (CHM). The LHM identified flood-prone low-lying areas in the northwest and southeast, while central and northwest regions exhibited higher landslide susceptibility. Both LHM and FHM were classified into five hazard levels. Landslide hazards predominantly covered high- to moderate-risk areas, since the high-risk areas constituted 38.8% of the study region. Conversely, flood hazards were mostly low to moderate, with high- and very high-risk areas at 10.49% of the entire study area. The integration of LHM and FHM into CHM emphasized high-risk regions, underscoring the importance of tailored mitigation strategies. The accuracy of the model was assessed by employing the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve method, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values were determined. The LHM and FHM exhibited an exceptional AUC of 99.36% and 99.06%, respectively, signifying the robust efficacy of the model. The novelty in this study is the generation of an integrated representation of both landslide and flood hazards. Finally, the produced hazard maps are essential for policymaking to address vulnerabilities to landslides and floods. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Frequency Analysis and Modelling)
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19 pages, 9952 KiB  
Article
Peaks-Over-Threshold-Based Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Using Regularised Linear Models
by Xiao Pan, Gokhan Yildirim, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Water 2023, 15(21), 3808; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w15213808 - 31 Oct 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1057
Abstract
Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is widely used to estimate design floods in ungauged catchments. Most of the RFFA techniques are based on the annual maximum (AM) flood model; however, research has shown that the peaks-over-threshold (POT) model has greater flexibility than the [...] Read more.
Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is widely used to estimate design floods in ungauged catchments. Most of the RFFA techniques are based on the annual maximum (AM) flood model; however, research has shown that the peaks-over-threshold (POT) model has greater flexibility than the AM model. There is a lack of studies on POT-based RFFA techniques. This paper presents the development of POT-based RFFA techniques, using regularised linear models (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, ridge regression and elastic net regression). The results of these regularised linear models are compared with multiple linear regression. Data from 145 stream gauging stations of south-east Australia are used in this study. A leave-one-out cross-validation is adopted to compare these regression models. It has been found that the regularised linear models provide quite accurate flood quantile estimates, with a median relative error in the range of 37 to 47%, which outperform the AM-based RFFA techniques currently recommended in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff guideline. The developed RFFA technique can be used to estimate flood quantiles in ungauged catchments in the study region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Frequency Analysis and Modelling)
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16 pages, 2006 KiB  
Article
A Non-Stationarity Analysis of Annual Maximum Floods: A Case Study of Campaspe River Basin, Australia
by Abdullah Gokhan Yilmaz, Monzur Alam Imteaz, Abdallah Shanableh, Rami Al-Ruzouq, Serter Atabay and Khaled Haddad
Water 2023, 15(20), 3683; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w15203683 - 21 Oct 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1063
Abstract
A design flood is an essential input for water infrastructure design and flood protection. A flood frequency analysis has been traditionally performed under stationarity assumption indicating that the statistical properties of historical flooding will not change over time. Climate change and variability challenges [...] Read more.
A design flood is an essential input for water infrastructure design and flood protection. A flood frequency analysis has been traditionally performed under stationarity assumption indicating that the statistical properties of historical flooding will not change over time. Climate change and variability challenges the stationarity assumption, and a flood frequency analysis without consideration of non-stationarity can result in under- or overestimation of the design floods. In this study, non-stationarity of annual maximum floods (AMFs) was investigated through a methodology consisting of trend and change point tests, and non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (NSGEV) models, and the methodology was applied to Campaspe River Basin as a case study. Statistically significant decreasing trends in AMFs were detected for almost all stations at the 0.01 significance level in Campaspe River Basin. NSGEV models outperformed the stationary counterparts (SGEV) for some stations based on statistical methods (i.e., Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC)) and graphical approaches (i.e., probability and quantile plots). For example, at Station 406235, AIC and BIC values were found to be 334 and 339, respectively, for the SGEV model, whereas AIC and BIC values were calculated as 330 and 334, respectively, for the NSGEV 15 model with time-varying location and scale parameters. Deriving a design flood from conventional stationary models will result in uneconomical water infrastructure design and poor water resource planning and management in the study basin. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Frequency Analysis and Modelling)
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20 pages, 20383 KiB  
Article
Morphometric Parameters and Geospatial Analysis for Flash Flood Susceptibility Assessment: A Case Study of Jeddah City along the Red Sea Coast, Saudi Arabia
by Bashar Bashir
Water 2023, 15(5), 870; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w15050870 - 23 Feb 2023
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 2707
Abstract
Flash floods are one of the most common and destructive natural hazards, and recent flood events show their severe impact on Saudi Arabia. Flash floods are increasing year by year in duration and intensity, resulting in huge destructive impacts for the nation concerned. [...] Read more.
Flash floods are one of the most common and destructive natural hazards, and recent flood events show their severe impact on Saudi Arabia. Flash floods are increasing year by year in duration and intensity, resulting in huge destructive impacts for the nation concerned. Anticipating the spatial patterns and occurrence of rainfall-induced floods is in high demand. Recent technique-based studies and their comprehensive results aid in understanding the flood potential of the drainage basins and in minimizing the risks of a threat to humans and of economic damage. Jeddah City is located at the western coast of the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia and is one of the most important coastal cities in the Arabian Kingdom. It has experienced several destructive flash flood events, particularly in 2009 and 2011, causing serious damage and significant loss of life. An analysis of the morphometric parameters using geospatial techniques provides significant insights into the hydrological response of the drainage basins to major heavy rainfall events. In this paper, two relative flood susceptibility scenarios were produced: drainage basin levels and very accurate pixel-level conditions. The morphometric comparison levels suggest that basins 1 and 7 are very high, whereas the other basins have moderate and low levels. The derived flood susceptibility map was integrated with the topographic position and wetness algorithms (TPI and TWI) through overlay processing. The integration analysis aids in realizing the relationship between the general basin morphometric characteristics and the in situ relief for producing the flood susceptibility spots over the entire basins. Thus, the method of this paper can be applied to evaluate the site-specific plan minimizing the effects of flash flood risks in similar areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Frequency Analysis and Modelling)
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